Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T10:30:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
59 0x59a9…41d1 sports 465 markets active 0h ago coverage 65d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$334 (-1%) realized −$218 · open −$116
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR21%break-even
Win rate86%394W / 66L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$50per market
Trades / day9.5pace
Fees−$59est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$178now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$84
7 days+$145
14 days+$204
30 days−$88
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 98% −$465
other 2% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +21%
net ROI/market (all)-11.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 109 -0.5% -10.0% 87% 27% -7.5%
≤30d 335 -2.6% -11.9% 87% 24% -10.2%
≤90d 460 -1.8% -11.1% 86% 21% -10.9%
all 460 -1.8% -11.1% 86% 21% -10.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.1% 21% -10.9%
10% -19.7% 9% -19.4%
15% -27.4% 5% -27.2%
20% -34.5% 3% -34.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
76% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$26 · ×0.13 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.8 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

65d coverage
Net worth$178
Realized−$218
Unrealized−$116
Win rate (resolved)86%
Wins / losses394 / 66
Est. fees paid−$59
Open positions5
Markets (closed)460 / 465
History coverage65d
Avg bet$50
Trades / day9.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 460 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Parma: Daniel Galan vs Zsombor Piros Daniel Galan 90¢ 48¢ $180 $96 −$84 (-47%)
Nottingham 2: Felix Gill vs Hugo Gaston Hugo Gaston 53¢ 34¢ $30 $20 −$10 (-35%)
HSBC Championships: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Corentin Moutet Corentin Moutet 54¢ 50¢ $21 $19 −$2 (-8%)
ITF Milano: Luca Parenti vs Lorenzo Berto Luca Parenti 65¢ 36¢ $35 $19 −$16 (-46%)
HSBC Championships: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Corentin Moutet Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard 77¢ 50¢ $20 $13 −$7 (-34%)
Poznan: Hynek Barton vs Kimmer Coppejans Hynek Barton 90¢ 98¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+9%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 56 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
ITF Milano: Nicola Rispoli vs Gian Marco Ortenzi Jun 16 $80 +$4 +5%
ITF Tauste: Elena Milovanovic vs Claudia Ferrer Perez Jun 16 $10 $0 +4%
Parma: Oriol Roca Batalla vs Francesco Passaro Jun 16 $30 $0 +1%
ITF Klosters: Matteo Covato vs Noah Karma Jun 16 $10 +$4 +44%
ITF Tauste: Yushan Shao vs Marine Szostak Jun 16 $40 +$3 +7%
ITF Klosters: Sophie Luescher vs Ashley Lahey Jun 16 $60 +$14 +23%
ITF Bucharest: Daria Stefania Malaescu vs Linda Sevcikova Jun 16 $20 $0 -1%
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 16 $20 $0 +2%
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 16 $30 +$1 +2%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals Jun 16 $30 +$1 +3%
Parma: Buvaysar Gadamauri vs Damir Dzumhur Jun 15 $101 +$36 +36%
Asuncion 2: Bruno Fernandez vs Nick Hardt Jun 15 $51 −$50 -99%
Royan: Lucio Ratti vs Calvin Hemery Jun 15 $100 +$4 +4%
Brescia: Sarah Rakotomanga vs Yuliana Lizarazo Jun 15 $98 +$2 +2%
Parma: Franco Agamenone vs Stefano Napolitano Jun 15 $101 +$38 +38%
Royan: Carlos Sanchez Jover vs Alejandro Moro Canas Jun 15 $111 +$20 +18%
Figueira Da Foz: Susan Bandecchi vs Vera Zvonareva Jun 15 $110 +$3 +3%
Nottingham Open: Anna Blinkova vs Taylah Preston Jun 15 $903 −$23 -3%
Royan: Pierre Delage vs Svyatoslav Gulin Jun 15 $100 +$2 +2%
Grass Court Championships: Elise Mertens vs Liudmila Samsonova Jun 15 $100 +$4 +4%
Parma: Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo vs Luca Van Assche Jun 15 $100 +$6 +6%
Brescia: Ekaterine Gorgodze vs Nuria Brancaccio Jun 15 $3 +$2 +67%
Nottingham 2: Tomas Barrios vs Benjamin Bonzi Jun 15 $100 +$3 +3%
Poznan: Petr Brunclik vs Sumit Nagal Jun 15 $50 +$4 +7%
HSBC Championships: Jack Pinnington Jones vs Denis Shapovalov Jun 15 $20 +$2 +8%
Dublin: Juan Pablo Ficovich vs Nicolas Mejia Jun 15 $15 +$1 +5%
ITF Milano: Federico Iannaccone vs Petr Nesterov Jun 15 $5 $0 +3%
Royan: Kilian Feldbausch vs Laurent Lokoli Jun 15 $40 +$1 +2%
Nottingham Open: Maya Joint vs Yulia Starodubtseva Jun 15 $90 −$90 -100%
HSBC Championships (Doubles): Cerundolo/Nakashima vs Cash/Glasspool Jun 15 $60 +$1 +1%
Halle Open: Terence Atmane vs Martin Landaluce Jun 15 $20 −$20 -99%
Halle Open: Max Schoenhaus vs Learner Tien Jun 15 $300 +$2 +1%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Suzan Lamens vs Dalma Galfi Jun 15 $50 +$10 +20%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Tessa Brockmann vs Alycia Pa Jun 15 $50 +$4 +7%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Diane Parry vs Ella Seidel Jun 15 $30 +$2 +5%
Nottingham 2: Rei Sakamoto vs Yibing Wu Jun 14 $100 +$1 +1%
ITF Wichita: Sebastian Gorzny vs Ozan Baris Jun 14 $60 +$4 +7%
Cattolica: Jesper de Jong vs Roberto Carballes Baena Jun 14 $200 +$4 +2%
Halle Open, Qualification (Doubles): Galloway/Peers vs Altmaier/Fonsec Jun 14 $50 $0 +1%
Nottingham 2: Shintaro Mochizuki vs Michael Zheng Jun 14 $61 −$60 -99%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Rinky Hijikata vs Marcos Giron Jun 14 $40 +$24 +59%
HSBC Championships: Donna Vekic vs Emma Raducanu Jun 14 $50 +$8 +16%
ITF Ceska Lipa: Oleksii Krutykh vs Georgii Kravchenko Jun 14 $201 +$28 +14%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Aleksandar Vukic vs Harry Wendelken Jun 14 $100 +$5 +5%
Halle Open, Qualification: Lorenzo Sonego vs Nikoloz Basilashvili Jun 14 $100 +$3 +3%
Halle Open, Qualification: Raphael Collignon vs Roberto Bautista Agut Jun 14 $50 +$1 +2%
Bratislava: Alexander Shevchenko vs Taro Daniel Jun 14 $40 +$24 +60%
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Katie Volynets vs Kimberly Birrell Jun 14 $101 +$47 +46%
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Anna Blinkova vs Anna Bondar Jun 14 $40 +$2 +5%
ITF Martos: Joao Domingues vs Pablo Martinez Gomez Jun 14 $50 +$1 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Poznan: Hynek Barton vs Kimmer Coppejans BUY Hynek Barton 90¢ $10 24m
ITF Milano: Luca Parenti vs Lorenzo Berto BUY Luca Parenti 67¢ $30 1h
ITF Milano: Luca Parenti vs Lorenzo Berto BUY Luca Parenti 57¢ $5 1h
ITF Milano: Nicola Rispoli vs Gian Marco Ortenzi BUY Gian Marco Ortenzi 97¢ $50 1h
Parma: Daniel Galan vs Zsombor Piros BUY Daniel Galan 89¢ $100 1h
ITF Milano: Nicola Rispoli vs Gian Marco Ortenzi BUY Gian Marco Ortenzi 93¢ $30 1h
Parma: Oriol Roca Batalla vs Francesco Passaro BUY Oriol Roca Batalla 99¢ $30 1h
Parma: Daniel Galan vs Zsombor Piros BUY Daniel Galan 87¢ $30 1h
Parma: Daniel Galan vs Zsombor Piros BUY Daniel Galan 94¢ $50 1h
ITF Tauste: Elena Milovanovic vs Claudia Ferrer Perez BUY Elena Milovanovic 96¢ $10 1h
ITF Tauste: Yushan Shao vs Marine Szostak BUY Yushan Shao 95¢ $30 1h
ITF Klosters: Matteo Covato vs Noah Karma BUY Noah Karma 69¢ $10 1h
ITF Bucharest: Daria Stefania Malaescu vs Linda Sevcikova SELL Linda Sevcikova 94¢ $20 1h
ITF Tauste: Yushan Shao vs Marine Szostak BUY Yushan Shao 89¢ $10 1h
ITF Klosters: Sophie Luescher vs Ashley Lahey BUY Sophie Luescher 79¢ $10 2h
ITF Klosters: Sophie Luescher vs Ashley Lahey BUY Sophie Luescher 81¢ $50 2h
ITF Bucharest: Daria Stefania Malaescu vs Linda Sevcikova BUY Linda Sevcikova 95¢ $20 2h
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals BUY Washington Nationals 97¢ $30 9h
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies BUY Philadelphia Phillies 98¢ $30 9h
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds BUY Cincinnati Reds 98¢ $20 9h
Asuncion 2: Bruno Fernandez vs Nick Hardt BUY Bruno Fernandez 51¢ $51 13h
Parma: Buvaysar Gadamauri vs Damir Dzumhur BUY Buvaysar Gadamauri 73¢ $101 14h
HSBC Championships: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Corentin Moutet BUY Corentin Moutet 54¢ $21 14h
Royan: Lucio Ratti vs Calvin Hemery BUY Lucio Ratti 96¢ $100 15h
HSBC Championships: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Corentin Moutet BUY Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard 77¢ $20 15h
Nottingham 2: Felix Gill vs Hugo Gaston BUY Hugo Gaston 53¢ $30 15h
Brescia: Sarah Rakotomanga vs Yuliana Lizarazo BUY Sarah Rakotomanga 98¢ $98 15h
Royan: Carlos Sanchez Jover vs Alejandro Moro Canas BUY Carlos Sanchez Jover 84¢ $111 15h
Parma: Franco Agamenone vs Stefano Napolitano BUY Stefano Napolitano 72¢ $101 16h
Figueira Da Foz: Susan Bandecchi vs Vera Zvonareva BUY Susan Bandecchi 97¢ $110 16h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $177.86 · official $177.87 (match) · 991 history records