Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T16:40:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
59 0x59ab…18c6 sports 122 markets active 1h ago coverage 120d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$193 (-7%) realized −$196 · open +$3
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate53%62W / 54L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day1.1pace
Fees−$12est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$301now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5
7 days+$47
14 days+$53
30 days+$46
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 86% −$221
world 10% +$14
other 5% +$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-16.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 +2.7% -7.1% 55% 50% -3.9%
≤30d 28 +1.9% -7.8% 57% 54% -4.9%
≤90d 33 +4.4% -5.6% 61% 58% -3.5%
all 116 -7.1% -16.0% 53% 49% -16.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.0% 49% -16.7%
10% -24.0% 47% -24.7%
15% -31.3% 43% -32.0%
20% -38.1% 38% -38.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +7% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$19 · ×0.7 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.8 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

120d coverage
Net worth$301
Realized−$196
Unrealized+$3
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses62 / 54
Est. fees paid−$12
Open positions6
Markets (closed)116 / 122
History coverage120d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day1.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 116 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? No 77¢ 81¢ $100 $106 +$6 (+6%)
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? Yes 35¢ 34¢ $98 $95 −$3 (-3%)
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) DR Congo 47¢ 48¢ $25 $26 +$1 (+3%)
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Yes 58¢ 57¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-1%)
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score Yes 49¢ 48¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-1%)
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Both Teams to Score Yes 42¢ 42¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 50 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $25 +$29 +114%
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $25 +$15 +60%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $25 +$25 +97%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 16 $25 −$25 -99%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: IR Iran O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $25 +$31 +124%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $25 −$25 -98%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Egypt O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $25 −$25 -98%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Belgium O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $25 −$25 -98%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Belgium O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $26 −$5 -22%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $25 +$26 +101%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $25 +$20 +79%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Japan O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $25 +$12 +46%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $25 −$25 -99%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Curaçao O/U 1.5 Corners Jun 14 $25 +$25 +100%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $84 +$22 +26%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $25 −$25 -98%
Haiti vs. Scotland: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $25 −$25 -99%
NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $169 +$16 +10%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 13 $25 −$25 -99%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 11 $25 +$18 +70%
Mexico vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score Jun 11 $25 +$16 +64%
England vs. Costa Rica: O/U 2.5 Jun 10 $25 −$2 -10%
Netherlands vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 1.5 Jun 08 $25 +$10 +42%
Roland Garros ATP: Matteo Arnaldi vs Flavio Cobolli Jun 08 $25 −$7 -29%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Alexander Zverev Jun 05 $25 +$3 +11%
BK Hacken vs. Hammarby IF: O/U 1.5 Jun 01 $25 +$5 +20%
Hamburg European Open: Luciano Darderi vs Yannick Hanfmann May 20 $25 +$13 +52%
Spread: Aston Villa FC (-1.5) May 20 $25 −$25 -99%
Aston Villa FC vs. Liverpool FC: O/U 1.5 May 15 $25 +$7 +27%
Girona FC vs. Real Sociedad de Fútbol: Both Teams to Score May 14 $25 +$9 +34%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Casper Ruud vs Karen Khachanov May 14 $25 +$6 +24%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Rafael Jodar vs Luciano Darderi May 13 $25 −$25 -99%
Aston Villa FC vs. Lille OSC: Both Teams to Score May 13 $25 +$26 +104%
FC Bayern München vs. Atalanta BC: Both Teams to Score Mar 18 $25 +$1 +5%
AS Roma vs. Bologna FC 1909: Both Teams to Score Mar 15 $25 −$25 -100%
Tottenham Hotspur FC vs. Club Atlético de Madrid: O/U 3.5 Mar 14 $25 −$25 -100%
Newcastle United FC vs. FC Barcelona: Both Teams to Score Mar 14 $25 +$12 +49%
Club Atlético de Madrid vs. Tottenham Hotspur FC: O/U 2.5 Mar 14 $25 +$20 +79%
Galatasaray SK vs. Liverpool FC: O/U 2.5 Mar 05 $25 −$25 -100%
Arsenal FC vs. Chelsea FC: O/U 2.5 Mar 04 $25 +$20 +79%
US Cremonese vs. AC Milan: Both Teams to Score Mar 01 $25 +$22 +89%
SBV Excelsior vs. Go Ahead Eagles: Both Teams to Score Mar 01 $25 −$25 -100%
AS Roma vs. Juventus FC: O/U 2.5 Mar 01 $25 −$25 -100%
NEC vs. Fortuna Sittard: Both Teams to Score Mar 01 $25 +$17 +70%
Le Havre AC vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: O/U 3.5 Mar 01 $25 +$19 +75%
FC Internazionale Milano vs. Genoa CFC: Both Teams to Score Mar 01 $25 +$20 +82%
FC Twente '65 vs. Feyenoord Rotterdam: O/U 2.5 Mar 01 $25 −$25 -100%
Como 1907 vs. US Lecce: Both Teams to Score Feb 28 $25 −$25 -100%
TSG 1899 Hoffenheim vs. FC St. Pauli 1910: O/U 2.5 Feb 28 $25 −$25 -100%
Rayo Vallecano de Madrid vs. Athletic Club: Both Teams to Score Feb 28 $25 −$25 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $25 1h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 42¢ $25 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 58¢ $25 1h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY DR Congo 47¢ $25 1h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Algeria 59¢ $25 22h
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 2.5 BUY Over 46¢ $25 22h
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 1.5 BUY Over 62¢ $25 25h
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $25 25h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 45¢ $25 43h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: IR Iran O/U 1.5 BUY Over 44¢ $25 43h
Belgium vs. Egypt: Egypt O/U 1.5 BUY Over 37¢ $25 44h
Belgium vs. Egypt: Belgium O/U 1.5 BUY Over 47¢ $25 45h
Belgium vs. Egypt: Belgium O/U 2.5 SELL Over 23¢ $20 45h
Belgium vs. Egypt: Belgium O/U 2.5 BUY Over 28¢ $26 46h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 60¢ $25 2d
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $25 2d
Netherlands vs. Japan: Japan O/U 0.5 BUY Over 68¢ $25 2d
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 55¢ $25 2d
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany O/U 2.5 BUY Over 79¢ $84 3d
Germany vs. Curaçao: Curaçao O/U 1.5 Corners BUY Under 49¢ $25 3d
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 45¢ $25 3d
Haiti vs. Scotland: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 54¢ $25 3d
NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 83¢ $159 3d
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) BUY Switzerland 61¢ $25 3d
NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 83¢ $26 3d
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamen BUY Yes 35¢ $98 5d
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) SELL Mexico 100¢ $43 5d
Mexico vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score SELL No 100¢ $42 5d
Mexico vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score BUY No 60¢ $25 5d
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) BUY Mexico 58¢ $25 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $301.20 · official $301.21 (match) · 196 history records