Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T21:31:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
59 0x59ad…8a1a crypto 87 markets active 2h ago coverage 231d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$526 (-2%) realized −$526 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate63%55W / 32L
Whale WR68%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$331per market
Trades / day1.9pace
Fees−$300est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$457
7 days−$440
14 days−$570
30 days−$486
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 72% −$263
other 24% −$310
crypto 4% −$6
tech 0% −$122
world 0% −$13
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-19.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 +0.9% -8.7% 67% 42% -12.7%
≤30d 29 -1.0% -10.4% 62% 34% -11.8%
≤90d 49 -13.1% -21.4% 57% 27% -11.3%
all 87 -10.6% -19.2% 63% 39% -11.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.2% 39% -11.8%
10% -26.9% 24% -20.2%
15% -34.0% 16% -27.9%
20% -40.4% 11% -35.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 42% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
36% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 68% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -16% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$57 vs −$121 · ×0.47 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.82 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

231d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$526
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)63%
Wins / losses55 / 32
Whale WR (big bets)68%
Est. fees paid−$300
Open positions0
Markets (closed)87 / 87
History coverage231d
Avg bet$331
Trades / day1.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 87 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs Scotland Jun 18 $657 +$457 +70%
T20 Series West Indies vs Sri lanka: West Indies vs Sri Lanka Jun 15 $1,225 +$816 +67%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $333 +$14 +4%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major S Jun 14 $101 −$96 -95%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $3,802 −$1,235 -32%
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia Jun 14 $1,510 +$502 +33%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $28 +$10 +35%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $920 −$842 -92%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $743 +$494 +66%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $1,166 −$605 -52%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $1,279 +$9 +1%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $632 +$37 +6%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Monte - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $360 +$12 +3%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $13 −$7 -55%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $80 +$6 +7%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs B8 - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $27 +$10 +36%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 11 $145 +$1 +1%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $2,366 +$25 +1%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs B8 - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $34 −$2 -7%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $1,106 −$6 -1%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $385 +$97 +25%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $24 +$6 +25%
MegaETH FDV above $1.6B one day after launch? Jun 10 $214 −$188 -88%
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping? Jun 10 $6 −$6 -100%
Indian Premier League: Rajasthan Royals vs Lucknow Super Giants Jun 10 $1,032 −$169 -16%
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs INOX Division (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Jun 10 $104 +$92 +89%
Tea FDV above $80M one day after launch Jun 04 $66 −$62 -94%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $86 +$111 +130%
Indian Premier League: Sunrisers Hyderabad vs Royal Challengers Bengal May 22 $1,095 +$35 +3%
Indian Premier League: Chennai Super Kings vs Sunrisers Hyderabad May 18 $128 +$23 +18%
Indian Premier League: Delhi Capitals vs Rajasthan Royals May 17 $1,337 +$33 +2%
Indian Premier League: Punjab Kings vs Royal Challengers Bengaluru May 17 $205 +$21 +10%
MegaETH FDV above $1.4B one day after launch? May 05 $169 +$2 +1%
Gensyn FDV above $200M one day after launch? May 01 $1,998 +$2 +0%
Gensyn FDV above $400M one day after launch? Apr 30 $353 +$82 +23%
Over $200M committed to the Printr public sale? Apr 30 $176 −$44 -25%
Over $150M committed to the Printr public sale? Apr 30 $576 +$1 +0%
Over $40M committed to the Printr public sale? Apr 30 $678 +$4 +1%
Fluent FDV above $50M one day after launch? Apr 29 $470 +$11 +2%
Fluent FDV above $100M one day after launch? Apr 29 $788 +$87 +11%
Fluent FDV above $150M one day after launch? Apr 25 $903 −$59 -6%
Fluent FDV above $200M one day after launch? Apr 25 $30 −$27 -92%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? Apr 08 $19 −$7 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Apr 07 $34 −$33 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Apr 07 $32 −$32 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Apr 07 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Apr 07 $70 −$70 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Apr 07 $66 −$16 -24%
Will Polymarket mindshare hit 85%? Apr 07 $40 −$40 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Feb 16 $26 +$13 +50%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs Scotland SELL West Indies 65¢ $422 1h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs Scotland SELL West Indies 65¢ $3 1h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs Scotland SELL West Indies 65¢ $3 1h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs Scotland SELL West Indies 66¢ $161 1h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs Scotland SELL West Indies 58¢ $525 1h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs Scotland BUY West Indies 35¢ $27 2h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs Scotland BUY West Indies 35¢ $68 2h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs Scotland BUY West Indies 35¢ $70 2h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs Scotland BUY West Indies 35¢ $1 2h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs Scotland BUY West Indies 35¢ $140 2h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs Scotland BUY West Indies 35¢ $1 2h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs Scotland BUY West Indies 35¢ $39 2h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs Scotland BUY West Indies 35¢ $37 2h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs Scotland BUY West Indies 35¢ $2 2h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs Scotland BUY West Indies 37¢ $226 2h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs Scotland BUY West Indies 41¢ $10 2h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs Scotland BUY West Indies 41¢ $36 2h
T20 Series West Indies vs Sri lanka: West Indies vs Sri Lanka SELL Sri Lanka 72¢ $1,253 3d
T20 Series West Indies vs Sri lanka: West Indies vs Sri Lanka SELL Sri Lanka 45¢ $788 3d
T20 Series West Indies vs Sri lanka: West Indies vs Sri Lanka BUY Sri Lanka 35¢ $700 3d
T20 Series West Indies vs Sri lanka: West Indies vs Sri Lanka BUY Sri Lanka 35¢ $525 3d
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia SELL Australia 58¢ $15 4d
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia SELL Australia 58¢ $17 4d
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia SELL Australia 58¢ $17 4d
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia SELL Australia 58¢ $37 4d
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia SELL Australia 58¢ $37 4d
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia SELL Australia 58¢ $4 4d
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia SELL Australia 58¢ $6 4d
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia SELL Australia 44¢ $645 4d
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia SELL Australia 44¢ $88 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 508 history records