Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T01:16:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

59
0x59b6…307f
sports · 1256 markets active 0h ago
1.5score
−$13,297 -4%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$13,325 · open +$28
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$733
Realized−$13,325
Unrealized+$28
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses540 / 711
Whale WR (big bets)55%
Est. fees paid−$1,845
Open positions5
Markets (closed)1251 / 1256
History coverage183d
Avg bet$237
Trades / day17.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%
Chart Positions 5 History 1251 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$517
7 days+$558
14 days−$122
30 days−$2,000
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles Baltimore Orioles 55¢ 92¢ $130 $216 +$86 (+66%)
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins St. Louis Cardinals 66¢ 66¢ $205 $207 +$2 (+1%)
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Over 61¢ 40¢ $165 $107 −$58 (-35%)
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets Atlanta Braves 51¢ 50¢ $105 $102 −$3 (-2%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Yes 47¢ 48¢ $100 $101 +$1 (+1%)
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Yes 60¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 13 $132 −$58 -44%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 7.5 Jun 12 $117 −$17 -14%
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 12 $122 −$35 -29%
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 12 $147 −$18 -12%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $51 −$39 -76%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $76 −$40 -53%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $492 +$85 +17%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 12 $359 +$23 +6%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 12 $142 +$86 +61%
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 11 $137 +$104 +76%
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 10.5 Jun 11 $117 −$5 -5%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $247 +$102 +41%
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 11 $233 −$34 -14%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins Jun 11 $132 +$105 +79%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Mets Jun 11 $263 −$99 -38%
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 11 $185 +$29 +16%
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 11 $162 +$104 +64%
Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 11 $152 +$102 +67%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $184 +$337 +183%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics Jun 11 $202 −$130 -64%
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 11 $334 −$126 -38%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 11 $165 +$102 +62%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins Jun 11 $122 −$35 -29%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Mets Jun 11 $102 +$107 +105%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 11 $182 −$135 -74%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 11 $107 +$103 +97%
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5) Jun 10 $132 −$45 -34%
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres Jun 10 $521 +$20 +4%
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 10 $102 +$111 +110%
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 7.5 Jun 10 $147 −$51 -35%
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 7.5 Jun 10 $102 −$22 -22%
Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 10 $289 −$105 -36%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics: O/U 11.5 Jun 10 $202 +$39 +19%
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 8.5 Jun 10 $112 −$56 -50%
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 10 $289 −$64 -22%
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 7.5 Jun 10 $167 −$61 -36%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 10 $176 +$21 +12%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 10 $223 −$124 -56%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 10 $162 +$95 +59%
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 10 $152 −$64 -42%
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 9.5 Jun 09 $202 −$40 -20%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics Jun 09 $693 −$63 -9%
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres Jun 09 $102 −$102 -100%
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 09 $142 +$104 +73%
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 09 $152 +$102 +67%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $127 −$91 -72%
San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 08 $243 +$45 +18%
Seattle Mariners vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 7.5 Jun 06 $13 −$3 -25%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 06 $152 +$102 +67%
New York Mets vs. San Diego Padres Jun 06 $127 +$105 +82%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 93% −$12,651
finance 3% −$294
other 2% +$502
crypto 2% −$855
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 61¢ $101 4m
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 61¢ $66 4m
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox SELL Los Angeles Dodgers 32¢ $74 8m
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets BUY Atlanta Braves 51¢ $107 19m
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins BUY St. Louis Cardinals 66¢ $207 28m
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 7.5 SELL Under 46¢ $100 1h
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 55¢ $132 1h
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 7.5 BUY Under 52¢ $117 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 47¢ $102 1h
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox SELL Texas Rangers 39¢ $87 1h
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates SELL Pittsburgh Pirates 52¢ $128 1h
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Texas Rangers 53¢ $122 2h
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles BUY Baltimore Orioles 55¢ $132 2h
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 58¢ $147 2h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 14¢ $11 4h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 60¢ $51 4h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 13¢ $13 4h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 24¢ $26 5h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 24¢ $23 5h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 51¢ $51 6h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 93¢ $166 21h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 28¢ $51 21h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 9¢ $12 21h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 40¢ $400 22h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 39¢ $96 23h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 39¢ $294 23h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 38¢ $51 23h
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles SELL Baltimore Orioles 93¢ $291 23h
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates SELL Los Angeles Dodgers 93¢ $228 23h
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles BUY Baltimore Orioles 67¢ $212 25h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-11.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 55 +8.7% -1.7% 47% 44% -4.2%
≤30d 193 -1.0% -10.4% 39% 36% -14.3%
≤90d 557 -0.2% -9.7% 41% 38% -11.3%
all 1251 -2.5% -11.8% 43% 39% -13.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover17.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.8% 39% -13.6%
10% -20.2% 35% -21.8%
15% -28.0% 30% -29.4%
20% -35.0% 22% -36.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $733.16 · official $733.16 (match) · 3500 history records