Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T21:15:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
59 0x59ba…1e16 crypto 416 markets active 1h ago coverage 127d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$131 (-1%) realized −$131 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate72%298W / 118L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$33per market
Trades / day5.7pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$31
7 days−$86
14 days−$86
30 days−$86
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% −$158
other 1% −$37
sports 0% +$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-13.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 58 -4.2% -13.3% 69% 38% -19.8%
≤30d 58 -4.2% -13.3% 69% 38% -19.8%
≤90d 91 -10.0% -18.6% 69% 32% -28.5%
all 416 -4.7% -13.7% 72% 31% -10.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.7% 31% -10.8%
10% -22.0% 20% -19.3%
15% -29.5% 13% -27.1%
20% -36.4% 9% -34.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -21% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
56% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +21% → late -31% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$14 · ×0.35 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.89 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

127d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$131
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)72%
Wins / losses298 / 118
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)416 / 416
History coverage127d
Avg bet$33
Trades / day5.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 416 Trades
no open positions (9 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$1 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$4 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$3 -27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$5 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +8%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 $0 +3%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 15 $26 −$18 -70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 15 $25 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 15 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 15 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 15 $25 +$2 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 15 $25 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 15 $25 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 15 $25 +$2 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 15 $25 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$4 -83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 15 $25 +$4 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 15 $25 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$4 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +23%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $5 +$5 +93%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $5 +$13 +262%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$2 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 14 $25 +$3 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 14 $30 −$3 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 14 $10 +$2 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$2 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 14 $10 +$2 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$2 +42%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $20 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$2 +36%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $20 +$11 +57%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $15 −$15 -99%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $20 +$22 +109%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $30 −$30 -99%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET SELL Down 30¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET SELL Up 64¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET SELL Down 60¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET SELL Up 58¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET SELL Up 72¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET SELL Down 77¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET SELL Up 48¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET SELL Down 68¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET SELL Down 77¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET SELL Up 48¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET SELL Down 62¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET SELL Up 23¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET SELL Down 87¢ $9 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET SELL Up 73¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $5 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1301 history records