Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T20:36:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
59 0x59ba…7113 other 21 markets active 2h ago coverage 8d
RISKYcopy with care Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$380 (+41%) realized +$380 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +30% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +13% what you keep after slip
Net edge+13%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate48%10W / 11L
Drawdown18%max
Avg bet$45per market
Trades / day3.5pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit14%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$529
7 days+$541
14 days+$599
30 days+$599
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 96% +$533
sports 3% +$17
world 1% +$49
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)+17.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 +17.8% +6.6% 44% 44% +50.7%
≤30d 21 +30.0% +17.6% 48% 48% +48.5%
≤90d 21 +30.0% +17.6% 48% 48% +48.5%
all 21 +30.0% +17.6% 48% 48% +48.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +17.6% 48% +48.5%
10% +6.4% 38% +34.3%
15% -3.9% 33% +21.4%
20% -13.3% 29% +9.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 60% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +64% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +30% · $-wt +64% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late +55% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$78 vs −$17 · ×4.67 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×4.25 per $1 lost it wins $4.25
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$380
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses10 / 11
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)21 / 21
History coverage8d
Avg bet$45
Trades / day3.5
Drawdown18%
Kalshi-fit14%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 21 Trades
no open positions (10 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? Jun 29 $70 +$226 +324%
Exact Score: South Africa 0 - 1 Canada? Jun 28 $76 +$246 +324%
Exact Score: Algeria 1 - 2 Austria? Jun 28 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Jordan 0 - 2 Argentina? Jun 28 $5 −$5 -98%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $121 +$82 +67%
Exact Score: Colombia 1 - 2 Portugal? Jun 27 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Colombia 1 - 1 Portugal? Jun 27 $10 −$10 -97%
Will England win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $130 +$20 +16%
Exact Score: Croatia 0 - 0 Ghana? Jun 27 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Egypt 1 - 1 IR Iran? Jun 27 $10 +$49 +474%
Exact Score: New Zealand 0 - 2 Belgium? Jun 27 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $60 +$42 +70%
Exact Score: Uruguay 1 - 1 Spain? Jun 26 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Cabo Verde 1 - 1 Saudi Arabia? Jun 26 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: Norway 1 - 1 France? Jun 26 $4 −$4 -97%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $92 −$90 -98%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $80 +$16 +20%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $101 +$24 +24%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $90 +$41 +46%
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 22 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 22 $10 +$37 +365%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? SELL Yes 100¢ $296 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 23¢ $70 2h
Exact Score: South Africa 0 - 1 Canada? SELL Yes 100¢ $322 23h
Exact Score: South Africa 0 - 1 Canada? BUY Yes 23¢ $76 24h
Exact Score: Algeria 1 - 2 Austria? BUY Yes 7¢ $10 42h
Exact Score: Jordan 0 - 2 Argentina? BUY Yes 17¢ $5 42h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 100¢ $203 43h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 59¢ $121 45h
Exact Score: Colombia 1 - 2 Portugal? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 45h
Exact Score: Colombia 1 - 1 Portugal? BUY Yes 12¢ $10 45h
Will England win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 100¢ $150 45h
Will England win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 86¢ $130 47h
Exact Score: Croatia 0 - 0 Ghana? BUY Yes 12¢ $10 47h
Exact Score: New Zealand 0 - 2 Belgium? BUY Yes 10¢ $10 2d
Exact Score: Egypt 1 - 1 IR Iran? BUY Yes 17¢ $10 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 100¢ $102 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 58¢ $60 3d
Exact Score: Uruguay 1 - 1 Spain? BUY Yes 13¢ $10 3d
Exact Score: Cabo Verde 1 - 1 Saudi Arabia? BUY Yes 15¢ $5 3d
Exact Score: Norway 1 - 1 France? BUY Yes 9¢ $4 3d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 41¢ $92 3d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 83¢ $80 3d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 80¢ $101 4d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 100¢ $131 7d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 68¢ $90 7d
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $48 7d
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $10 7d
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $20 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 32 history records