Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T11:15:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
59 0x59ba…c937 other 28 markets active 3d ago coverage 6d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$48 (-19%) realized −$39 · open −$9
Gross ROI / mkt -23% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -36% what you keep after slip
Net edge-36%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate47%9W / 10L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day8.8pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$61now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 54% −$51
other 43% +$2
sports 3% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-30.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 -46.9% -52.0% 38% 25% -41.9%
≤30d 19 -22.9% -30.3% 47% 37% -30.9%
≤90d 19 -22.9% -30.3% 47% 37% -30.9%
all 19 -22.9% -30.3% 47% 37% -30.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -30.3% 37% -30.9%
10% -36.9% 26% -37.5%
15% -43.0% 21% -43.6%
20% -48.6% 16% -49.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 39% · top 2 61% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -24% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
22% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -23% · $-wt -24% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -20% → late -26% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$8 · ×0.52 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.47 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$61
Realized−$39
Unrealized−$9
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses9 / 10
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions8
Markets (closed)19 / 28
History coverage6d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day8.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 19 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $25 $21 −$4 (-16%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $10 $12 +$2 (+22%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ $10 $7 −$3 (-33%)
Will Netherlands be eliminated in the Semifinals of the World Cup? Yes 10¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+8%)
Will Germany be eliminated in the Quarterfinals of the World Cup? Yes 17¢ 14¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-18%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 14¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-19%)
Will France be eliminated in the Quarterfinals of the World Cup? Yes 23¢ 18¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-20%)
Will Croatia be eliminated in the Quarterfinals of the World Cup? Yes 14¢ $5 $3 −$2 (-39%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$2 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 16 $15 −$15 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$2 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 16 $20 −$3 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 15 $26 −$25 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 15 $16 +$2 +14%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $15 +$14 +93%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $15 +$1 +6%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $12 −$12 -98%
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $5 +$6 +109%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $5 +$8 +165%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $5 +$2 +42%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? AND Will England vs. Croatia end in a BUY 25¢ $4 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 86¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET SELL Down 75¢ $6 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET SELL Down 96¢ $7 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET BUY Down 71¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET SELL Down 95¢ $11 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET BUY Down 87¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET SELL Up 14¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET BUY Down 83¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $26 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET SELL Up 19¢ $18 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Up 18¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Up 14¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Up 13¢ $5 5d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $29 5d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $15 5d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $16 5d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 27¢ $10 6d
Will Germany be eliminated in the Quarterfinals of the World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $5 6d
Will France be eliminated in the Quarterfinals of the World Cup? BUY Yes 23¢ $5 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $60.56 · official $60.56 (match) · 62 history records