trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 16 | -46.9% | -52.0% | 38% | 25% | -41.9% |
| ≤30d | 19 | -22.9% | -30.3% | 47% | 37% | -30.9% |
| ≤90d | 19 | -22.9% | -30.3% | 47% | 37% | -30.9% |
| all | 19 | -22.9% | -30.3% | 47% | 37% | -30.9% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -30.3% | 37% | -30.9% |
| 10% | -36.9% | 26% | -37.5% |
| 15% | -43.0% | 21% | -43.6% |
| 20% | -48.6% | 16% | -49.1% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 5¢ | 4¢ | $25 | $21 | −$4 (-16%) |
| Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 5¢ | 6¢ | $10 | $12 | +$2 (+22%) |
| Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 11¢ | 7¢ | $10 | $7 | −$3 (-33%) |
| Will Netherlands be eliminated in the Semifinals of the World Cup? | Yes | 9¢ | 10¢ | $5 | $5 | +$0 (+8%) |
| Will Germany be eliminated in the Quarterfinals of the World Cup? | Yes | 17¢ | 14¢ | $5 | $4 | −$1 (-18%) |
| Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 17¢ | 14¢ | $5 | $4 | −$1 (-19%) |
| Will France be eliminated in the Quarterfinals of the World Cup? | Yes | 23¢ | 18¢ | $5 | $4 | −$1 (-20%) |
| Will Croatia be eliminated in the Quarterfinals of the World Cup? | Yes | 14¢ | 8¢ | $5 | $3 | −$2 (-39%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET | Jun 16 | $5 | −$5 | -100% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET | Jun 16 | $10 | +$2 | +16% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET | Jun 16 | $5 | $0 | +1% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET | Jun 16 | $15 | −$15 | -97% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET | Jun 16 | $5 | +$2 | +32% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET | Jun 16 | $20 | −$3 | -14% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET | Jun 15 | $26 | −$25 | -98% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET | Jun 15 | $5 | −$5 | -94% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET | Jun 15 | $16 | +$2 | +14% |
| Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? | Jun 15 | $15 | +$14 | +93% |
| Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? | Jun 14 | $15 | +$1 | +6% |
| Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? | Jun 14 | $10 | −$10 | -98% |
| Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? | Jun 13 | $2 | −$2 | -97% |
| Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? | Jun 13 | $12 | −$12 | -98% |
| Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? | Jun 13 | $1 | −$1 | -98% |
| Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? | Jun 13 | $1 | −$1 | -97% |
| Will United States win on 2026-06-12? | Jun 13 | $5 | +$6 | +109% |
| Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? | Jun 12 | $5 | +$8 | +165% |
| Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? | Jun 11 | $5 | +$2 | +42% |