Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T23:57:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
59 0x59bd…3c99 politics 116 markets active 2h ago coverage 115d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$80 (+0%) realized +$80 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -4% what you keep after slip
Net edge-4%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate10%11W / 104L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown29%max
Avg bet$256per market
Trades / day2.3pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$24now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 48% −$15
politics 40% −$16
sports 4% +$107
economics 2% −$1
tech 2% −$1
world 2% −$1
crypto 1% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-3.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 15 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 104 +5.5% -4.6% 5% 3% -9.4%
all 115 +6.6% -3.6% 10% 5% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -3.6% 5% -9.3%
10% -12.8% 3% -18.0%
15% -21.2% 3% -25.9%
20% -28.9% 3% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 49% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
45% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +7% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +13% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$0 · ×25.34 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.68 per $1 lost it wins $2.68
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

115d coverage
Net worth$24
Realized+$80
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)10%
Wins / losses11 / 104
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)115 / 116
History coverage115d
Avg bet$256
Trades / day2.3
Drawdown29%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 115 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $24 $24 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 19 $34 $0 -0%
Will the Cleveland Browns win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 15 $24 $0 -0%
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 14 $336 $0 -0%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 14 $25 $0 -0%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 11 $49 $0 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 08 $292 $0 -0%
Will Dinorah Figuera be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 07 $48 $0 -0%
Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary elec Jun 07 $46 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 28 $297 −$1 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 26 $82 $0 -0%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 26 $237 $0 -0%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2026 World Series? May 25 $500 −$1 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 24 $277 $0 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 22 $265 $0 -0%
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? May 21 $745 −$1 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 20 $290 $0 -0%
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? May 20 $240 $0 -0%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? May 19 $292 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 19 $227 $0 -0%
Will Michael Younger win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 19 $293 $0 -0%
Will Nicole Shanahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 18 $267 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me May 17 $285 $0 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 16 $208 $0 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 15 $213 $0 -0%
Will Seo Young-kyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 13 $513 −$1 -0%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 13 $264 $0 -0%
Will Germany win Eurovision 2026? May 12 $255 $0 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 12 $230 $0 -0%
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 11 $232 $0 -0%
Will Cho Kuk win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 10 $275 $0 -0%
Will Estonia be the Jury Winner in the Eurovision 2026 Grand Final? May 10 $214 $0 -0%
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 10 $210 $0 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 07 $287 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 06 $262 $0 -0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 06 $259 −$1 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in April? May 05 $50 $0 +0%
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 05 $221 $0 -0%
Will Germán Vargas Lleras win the 2026 Colombian presidential election May 04 $244 $0 -0%
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 04 $194 $0 -0%
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 03 $250 $0 -0%
Will Na Kyung-won win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 03 $192 $0 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? May 02 $195 $0 -0%
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 02 $268 $0 -0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 01 $267 $0 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 30 $256 −$1 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 22 $237 $0 -0%
Will Poland win Eurovision 2026? Apr 22 $241 $0 -0%
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 21 $252 $0 -0%
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 20 $415 $0 -0%
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 20 $297 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $24 1h
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $34 1h
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $34 4d
Will the Cleveland Browns win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $24 4d
Will the Cleveland Browns win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $24 5d
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $34 5d
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $34 5d
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $25 5d
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $25 6d
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $49 8d
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $49 9d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $36 11d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $36 12d
Will Dinorah Figuera be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $48 12d
Will Dinorah Figuera be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $48 12d
Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary elec SELL No 100¢ $46 12d
Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary elec BUY No 100¢ $46 13d
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $297 22d
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $297 24d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $82 24d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $82 24d
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $237 24d
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $237 24d
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $246 25d
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $246 26d
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $277 26d
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $277 28d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $265 28d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $265 29d
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $252 29d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $23.99 · official $23.99 (match) · 334 history records