Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T21:16:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
59 0x59be…dc3e crypto 1132 markets active 1h ago coverage 147d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 146d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$690 (-4%) realized −$690 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate62%703W / 425L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day18.0pace
Fees−$11est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$121
7 days+$110
14 days−$76
30 days−$163
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 37% −$380
other 25% +$102
finance 14% −$20
tech 13% +$220
sports 8% −$198
world 1% +$27
culture 0% −$3
politics 0% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-13.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 51 -37.3% -43.3% 41% 31% -4.4%
≤30d 389 -13.4% -21.7% 56% 27% -11.8%
≤90d 707 -5.8% -14.8% 59% 36% -9.6%
all 1128 -4.2% -13.3% 62% 39% -10.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover18.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.3% 39% -10.9%
10% -21.6% 26% -19.4%
15% -29.2% 16% -27.2%
20% -36.1% 9% -34.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
36% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$8 · ×0.56 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.92 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

147d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$690
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses703 / 425
Est. fees paid−$11
Open positions1
Markets (closed)1128 / 1132
History coverage147d ⚠
Avg bet$17
Trades / day18.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 1128 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
England leading at halftime? Jun 23 $101 −$58 -57%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 23 $0 $0 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 23 $5 −$5 -100%
France vs. Iraq: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $11 −$11 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 23 $11 −$11 -100%
Portugal leading at halftime? Jun 23 $395 +$129 +33%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 23 $5 +$6 +123%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 23 $13 −$5 -39%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 23 $5 +$5 +90%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 23 $1 +$1 +114%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $110 +$5 +4%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $1 $0 +38%
France vs. Iraq: 2nd Half O/U 5.5 Total Corners AND France vs. Iraq: B Jun 23 $1 +$1 +136%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 Jun 23 $1 $0 +36%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 22 $3 −$3 -100%
France leading at halftime? Jun 22 $335 +$79 +24%
Coinbase (COIN) Up or Down on June 22? Jun 22 $1 $0 +2%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Austria? Jun 22 $11 +$1 +13%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $5 +$1 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 22? Jun 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down on June 22? Jun 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 22 $6 −$6 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Kevin De Bruyne: 1+ goals Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Romelu Lukaku: 1+ goals Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Belgium 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $1 $0 +2%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $101 +$42 +42%
Exact Score: Brazil 0 - 0 Haiti? Jun 20 $6 −$6 -100%
Brazil to win the second half? Jun 20 $101 −$96 -95%
Brazil vs. Haiti: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $7 $0 +2%
Brazil leading at halftime? Jun 20 $101 +$29 +29%
Exact Score: United States 2 - 0 Australia? Jun 19 $366 +$23 +6%
Exact Score: Switzerland 3 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: United States 2 - 1 Australia? Jun 19 $4 −$2 -60%
Exact Score: United States 3 - 0 Australia? Jun 19 $20 −$16 -81%
Opendoor (OPEN) Up or Down on June 18? Jun 18 $1 $0 +32%
Google (GOOGL) Up or Down on June 18? Jun 18 $1 +$1 +96%
Tesla (TSLA) Up or Down on June 18? Jun 18 $120 +$80 +66%
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Senegal? Jun 18 $20 −$20 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 18 $8 −$8 -100%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $76 on June 16? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 18 $9 −$9 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
England leading at halftime? SELL Yes 27¢ $43 38m
England leading at halftime? BUY Yes 58¢ $51 1h
England leading at halftime? BUY Yes 65¢ $51 1h
Portugal leading at halftime? SELL Yes 87¢ $16 4h
Portugal leading at halftime? SELL Yes 92¢ $3 4h
Portugal leading at halftime? SELL Yes 92¢ $8 4h
Portugal leading at halftime? SELL Yes 92¢ $1 4h
Portugal leading at halftime? SELL Yes 92¢ $6 4h
Portugal leading at halftime? SELL Yes 92¢ $489 4h
Portugal leading at halftime? BUY Yes 68¢ $304 4h
Portugal leading at halftime? BUY Yes 73¢ $40 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Down 8¢ $1 6h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET SELL Down 65¢ $12 6h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Down 27¢ $5 6h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $1 6h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Up 2¢ $1 6h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Up 9¢ $1 6h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $7 6h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET SELL Up 6¢ $8 7h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $1 7h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Up 7¢ $1 7h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $10 7h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Down 7¢ $0 7h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET SELL Down 46¢ $1 8h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET SELL Down 46¢ $6 8h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET SELL Down 46¢ $3 8h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Down 23¢ $5 8h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET SELL Up 56¢ $2 8h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 24¢ $1 8h
Portugal leading at halftime? BUY Yes 69¢ $50 11h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.96 · official $0.96 (match) · 3500 history records