Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T15:31:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
59 0x59c7…90dd crypto 42 markets active 2h ago coverage 619d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$1,062 (-12%) realized −$1,040 · open −$22
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate95%39W / 2L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$210per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$1,254now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$31
7 days−$31
14 days−$31
30 days−$31
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 57% −$1,055
crypto 41% −$50
other 1% $0
tech 0% $0
sports 0% $0
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -2.4% -11.7% 0% 0% -11.7%
≤30d 1 -2.4% -11.7% 0% 0% -11.7%
≤90d 4 -0.4% -9.9% 75% 0% -11.4%
all 41 -0.2% -9.7% 95% 0% -22.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -22.5%
10% -18.3% 0% -29.9%
15% -26.2% 0% -36.7%
20% -33.4% 0% -42.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 48% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$543 · ×0.0 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

619d coverage
Net worth$1,254
Realized−$1,040
Unrealized−$22
Win rate (resolved)95%
Wins / losses39 / 2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)41 / 42
History coverage619d
Avg bet$210
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 41 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 25? Yes 100¢ 98¢ $1,276 $1,254 −$22 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,400 on June 25? Jun 25 $1,280 −$31 -2%
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in March? Apr 03 $44 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in March? Apr 03 $55 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 in March? Apr 03 $65 $0 +0%
Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? Mar 12 $6 $0 +0%
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? Mar 12 $6 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum reach $4,200 in February? Mar 12 $30 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 in February? Mar 12 $38 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $125,000 in February? Mar 12 $41 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in February? Mar 12 $44 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 40-59 tweets from October 14 to October 21, 2025? Feb 17 $5 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from October 10 to October 17, 2025 Feb 17 $6 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from October 14 to October 21, 2025? Feb 17 $7 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from October 7 to October 14, 2025? Feb 17 $9 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from October 10 to October 17, 2025 Feb 17 $10 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from October 7 to October 14, 2025? Feb 17 $10 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from October 10 to October 17, 2025? Feb 17 $11 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from October 10 to October 17, 2025 Feb 17 $12 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70k in October? Feb 17 $32 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $200k in October? Feb 17 $61 $0 +0%
Will ODS win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? Oct 13 $2 $0 +1%
Will Solana reach $350 in September? Oct 13 $2 $0 +3%
Will Elon tweet between 460 and 479 times September 5–12? Oct 13 $3 $0 +0%
Will OpenAi have the top AI model on September 30? Oct 13 $3 $0 +1%
Will Přísaha win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary electi Oct 13 $3 $0 +0%
Will Stačilo! win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary elect Oct 13 $3 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet between 500 and 519 times September 5–12? Oct 13 $3 $0 +0%
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on September 30? Oct 13 $3 $0 +0%
Will STAN win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? Oct 13 $4 $0 +0%
Will Meta have the top AI model on September 30? Oct 13 $4 $0 +0%
Will Greens win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary electio Oct 13 $4 $0 +0%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after September 2025 meeting? Oct 13 $4 $0 +0%
Will Pirates win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary electi Oct 13 $4 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $100 in September? Oct 13 $5 $0 +1%
Will monthly inflation increase by 0.0% or less in August? Oct 13 $5 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum dip to $2400 in September? Oct 13 $10 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum dip to $2000 in September? Oct 13 $13 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $200K in September? Oct 13 $37 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $8000 in September? Oct 13 $50 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by March 31? Apr 02 $575 +$1 +0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Oct 26 $5,032 −$1,055 -21%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,400 on June 25? SELL Yes 98¢ $1,249 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 25? BUY Yes 100¢ $1,276 27h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,400 on June 25? BUY Yes 100¢ $1,280 27h
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in March? BUY No 100¢ $55 105d
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 in March? BUY No 100¢ $65 105d
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in March? BUY No 100¢ $44 105d
Will Ethereum reach $4,200 in February? BUY No 100¢ $30 128d
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? BUY No 99¢ $6 128d
Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? BUY No 100¢ $6 128d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in February? BUY No 100¢ $44 128d
Will Bitcoin reach $125,000 in February? BUY No 100¢ $41 128d
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 in February? BUY No 100¢ $38 128d
Will Bitcoin dip to $70k in October? BUY No 99¢ $32 255d
Will Bitcoin reach $200k in October? BUY No 100¢ $61 255d
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from October 14 to October 21, 2025? BUY No 100¢ $7 255d
Will Elon Musk post 40-59 tweets from October 14 to October 21, 2025? BUY No 100¢ $5 255d
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from October 10 to October 17, 2025 BUY No 100¢ $10 255d
Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from October 10 to October 17, 2025 BUY No 100¢ $12 255d
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from October 10 to October 17, 2025? BUY No 100¢ $11 255d
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from October 10 to October 17, 2025 BUY No 100¢ $6 255d
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from October 7 to October 14, 2025? BUY No 100¢ $10 255d
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from October 7 to October 14, 2025? BUY No 100¢ $9 255d
Will Ethereum reach $8000 in September? BUY No 100¢ $50 288d
Will Ethereum dip to $2400 in September? BUY No 99¢ $10 288d
Will Ethereum dip to $2000 in September? BUY No 100¢ $13 288d
Will monthly inflation increase by 0.0% or less in August? BUY No 99¢ $5 288d
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after September 2025 meeting? BUY No 100¢ $4 288d
Will Bitcoin reach $200K in September? BUY No 100¢ $37 288d
Will Solana dip to $100 in September? BUY No 99¢ $5 288d
Will Solana reach $350 in September? BUY No 97¢ $2 288d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,253.65 · official $1,254.29 (match) · 91 history records