trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | no closed markets | |||||
| ≤30d | 2 | +0.2% | -9.3% | 100% | 0% | -9.3% |
| ≤90d | 7 | +0.6% | -9.0% | 100% | 0% | -9.1% |
| all | 22 | -0.6% | -10.1% | 95% | 9% | -8.9% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -10.1% | 9% | -8.9% |
| 10% | -18.7% | 9% | -17.6% |
| 15% | -26.5% | 5% | -25.6% |
| 20% | -33.7% | 0% | -32.9% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Iranian regime survive U.S. military strikes? | No | 1¢ | 1¢ | $143 | $175 | +$31 (+22%) |
| Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | $100 | $100 | −$0 (-0%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Antonio Villaraigosa advance from the 2026 California Governor pr | Jun 11 | $142 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Shannon Lundgren be the Republican Nominee for IA-02? | Jun 04 | $101 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 11? | May 12 | $242 | +$1 | +0% |
| Hawks vs. Knicks | Apr 21 | $238 | +$5 | +2% |
| Trail Blazers vs. Spurs | Apr 09 | $237 | +$1 | +1% |
| Celtics vs. Bucks | Apr 05 | $236 | +$1 | +0% |
| Will China invade Taiwan by March 31, 2026? | Apr 01 | $1,034 | +$2 | +0% |
| Trail Blazers vs. Nuggets | Mar 23 | $20 | +$6 | +28% |
| Magic vs. Heat | Mar 15 | $1,026 | +$2 | +0% |
| Timberwolves vs. Lakers | Mar 11 | $1,025 | +$1 | +0% |
| Jazz vs. Wizards | Mar 06 | $1,021 | +$4 | +0% |
| Will Microsoft (MSFT) close above $495 end of February? | Feb 28 | $1,020 | +$1 | +0% |
| Pistons vs. Knicks | Feb 21 | $1,018 | +$2 | +0% |
| Will Opendoor (OPEN) finish week of February 9 above $7.00? | Feb 14 | $12 | $0 | +2% |
| Will Opendoor (OPEN) finish week of February 9 above $7.50? | Feb 14 | $191 | +$3 | +2% |
| Will Opendoor (OPEN) finish week of February 9 above $6.50? | Feb 14 | $797 | +$14 | +2% |
| LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Anyone's Legend (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend | Feb 06 | $68 | +$32 | +47% |
| Will "I Like It" be played first at the Super Bowl halftime show? | Feb 06 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $500 end of January? | Jan 31 | $968 | +$1 | +0% |
| Will Netflix (NFLX) finish week of January 19 above $50? | Jan 24 | $963 | +$6 | +1% |
| Will Microsoft (MSFT) finish week of January 5 above $430? | Jan 10 | $962 | +$1 | +0% |
| Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2025? | Jan 02 | $961 | +$1 | +0% |