Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T16:01:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
59 0x59c8…3f39 crypto 250 markets active 11h ago coverage 6d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$5 (-1%) realized −$5 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR56%break-even
Win rate70%176W / 74L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day44.5pace
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 97% −$12
other 3% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +56%
net ROI/market (all)-11.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 250 -2.3% -11.6% 70% 56% -11.9%
≤30d 250 -2.3% -11.6% 70% 56% -11.9%
≤90d 250 -2.3% -11.6% 70% 56% -11.9%
all 250 -2.3% -11.6% 70% 56% -11.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover44.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.6% 56% -11.9%
10% ← realistic here -20.0% 42% -20.4%
15% -27.8% 26% -28.0%
20% -34.8% 18% -35.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.38 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.9 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$5
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)70%
Wins / losses176 / 74
Open positions0
Markets (closed)250 / 250
History coverage6d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day44.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 250 Trades
no open positions (26 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 18 $1 $0 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 18 $1 $0 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 18 $1 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 17 $1 +$1 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 17 $1 +$1 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 17 $1 +$1 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 17 $2 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 17 $1 +$1 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +1%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $1 $0 +44%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $1 $0 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$1 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$2 +173%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +40%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Up 69¢ $1 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $1 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $1 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $1 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $1 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $1 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $1 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Down 86¢ $1 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $1 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $1 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $1 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Up 73¢ $1 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $1 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $1 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $1 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $1 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $1 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $1 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $1 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $1 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $1 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $1 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Down 87¢ $1 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $1 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Up 78¢ $1 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Down 84¢ $1 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Up 84¢ $1 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $1 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 663 history records