Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T17:09:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
59 0x59c9…8e43 crypto 706 markets active 12h ago coverage 59d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 58d only
✗ bot/MM pace (52 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$226 (-4%) realized −$226 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +26% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -3% what you keep after slip
Net edge-3%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate68%480W / 228L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day52.1pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$8now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$12
7 days−$142
14 days−$244
30 days−$244
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$345
other 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (52 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)+13.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 161 +13.9% +3.1% 56% 17% -12.6%
≤30d 246 +12.3% +1.6% 61% 28% -14.9%
≤90d 708 +25.7% +13.8% 68% 43% -13.7%
all 708 +25.7% +13.8% 68% 43% -13.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover52.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +13.8% 43% -13.7%
10% ← realistic here +2.9% 21% -22.0%
15% -7.1% 13% -29.5%
20% -16.2% 9% -36.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
32% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +26% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +42% → late +10% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
3.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$4 · ×0.29 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.61 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

59d coverage
Net worth$8
Realized−$226
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)68%
Wins / losses480 / 228
Open positions0
Markets (closed)708 / 706
History coverage59d ⚠
Avg bet$8
Trades / day52.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 708 Trades
no open positions (42 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 15 $0 +$2 +2737%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 15 $0 +$1 +1632%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$3 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 15 $20 −$7 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 15 $12 −$3 -23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 15 $30 +$5 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 15 $42 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 15 $26 +$3 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$4 -39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 15 $31 −$11 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$2 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 15 $21 −$3 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 15 $11 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$2 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 15 $20 +$10 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 15 $60 −$4 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 15 $31 −$6 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 15 $40 +$4 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 15 $14 +$3 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 15 $22 +$2 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 15 $15 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 15 $30 −$5 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 15 $29 +$3 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 15 $40 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 15 $14 −$3 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 15 $22 +$2 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 11 $9 −$7 -71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 11 $10 +$3 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 11 $3 −$1 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 11 $18 −$6 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 11 $5 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 11 $8 −$2 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 11 $5 −$1 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 11 $4 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 11 $11 +$2 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 11 $4 −$3 -61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 11 $22 +$3 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 11 $9 −$1 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 11 $2 −$1 -72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 11 $9 −$2 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 11 $17 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 11 $32 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 11 $21 +$2 +9%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET SELL Down 39¢ $7 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $10 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET SELL Down 52¢ $6 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET SELL Down 52¢ $6 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Down 78¢ $10 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Down 77¢ $10 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET SELL Down 64¢ $11 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $10 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Up 20¢ $2 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET SELL Down 64¢ $9 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $10 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET SELL Down 69¢ $11 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $10 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $10 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET SELL Down 93¢ $11 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET SELL Down 93¢ $11 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET SELL Down 91¢ $13 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $10 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $10 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Down 71¢ $10 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET SELL Down 85¢ $10 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET SELL Down 85¢ $11 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET SELL Down 85¢ $9 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Down 86¢ $10 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET SELL Down 93¢ $12 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $10 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Down 85¢ $11 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Down 81¢ $11 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET SELL Down 97¢ $6 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET SELL Down 96¢ $11 13h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $8.25 · official $0.00 · 3500 history records