Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T02:32:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
59 0x59ca…fd12 sports 213 markets active 2h ago coverage 236d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$110 (-1%) realized −$79 · open −$31
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate53%112W / 100L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$36per market
Trades / day1.3pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$19now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 48% −$2
other 42% +$298
crypto 9% −$426
politics 1% −$3
economics 0% −$3
tech 0% −$2
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-8.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d 27 -35.4% -41.5% 30% 30% -41.5%
all 212 +0.9% -8.7% 53% 50% -10.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.7% 50% -10.8%
10% -17.4% 48% -19.3%
15% -25.4% 42% -27.1%
20% -32.7% 35% -34.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -35% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +5% → late -4% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$23 vs −$26 · ×0.86 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.96 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

236d coverage
Net worth$19
Realized−$79
Unrealized−$31
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses112 / 100
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)212 / 213
History coverage236d
Avg bet$36
Trades / day1.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 212 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 Over 43¢ 16¢ $50 $19 −$31 (-63%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 72 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-28? Apr 28 $20 −$20 -98%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. FC Bayern München: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Apr 28 $50 −$50 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Mar 23 $210 −$207 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Mar 23 $156 −$154 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Mar 23 $50 −$49 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Mar 23 $20 −$20 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Mar 23 $20 −$20 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 1AM ET Mar 23 $20 −$20 -98%
Raptors vs. Suns: O/U 220.5 Mar 23 $60 +$29 +48%
Julius Randle: Assists O/U 4.5 Mar 23 $20 −$15 -74%
Wizards vs. Knicks: O/U 227.5 Mar 23 $20 −$20 -100%
Real Madrid CF vs. Club Atlético de Madrid: O/U 3.5 Mar 22 $20 +$29 +144%
Tottenham Hotspur FC vs. Nottingham Forest FC: O/U 2.5 Mar 22 $20 +$23 +112%
Newcastle United FC vs. Sunderland AFC: O/U 2.5 Mar 22 $20 +$20 +100%
Aston Villa FC vs. West Ham United FC: O/U 3.5 Mar 22 $20 −$9 -46%
Newcastle United FC vs. Sunderland AFC: O/U 3.5 Mar 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Mar 22 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Mar 22 $99 +$125 +125%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Mar 22 $50 −$49 -99%
Bucks vs. Suns: O/U 217.5 Mar 22 $29 −$29 -100%
Lakers vs. Magic Mar 22 $102 +$77 +75%
Fulham FC vs. Burnley FC: O/U 3.5 Mar 21 $30 +$31 +104%
Spread: Lakers (-3.5) Mar 21 $70 −$70 -100%
Everton FC vs. Chelsea FC: O/U 3.5 Mar 21 $40 −$40 -100%
Will Fulham FC win on 2026-03-21? Mar 21 $112 +$68 +61%
Spread: Bayer 04 Leverkusen (-2.5) Mar 21 $100 −$100 -100%
Brighton & Hove Albion FC vs. Liverpool FC: O/U 3.5 Mar 21 $30 $0 -1%
Knicks vs. Nets: O/U 216.5 Mar 21 $10 −$10 -98%
Trail Blazers vs. Timberwolves: O/U 231.5 Mar 21 $20 +$2 +9%
Will AFC Bournemouth win on 2026-03-20? Mar 20 $16 −$16 -100%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-03-20? Mar 20 $100 +$53 +53%
Cagliari Calcio vs. SSC Napoli: O/U 1.5 Mar 20 $15 −$15 -100%
Will SSC Napoli win on 2026-03-20? Mar 20 $65 +$33 +51%
Arsenal FC vs. Manchester United FC: O/U 3.5 Jan 25 $80 +$93 +116%
Newcastle United FC vs. Aston Villa FC: O/U 3.5 Jan 25 $51 −$51 -100%
Raptors vs. Kings Jan 22 $137 $0 -0%
Will Phan Van Giang be elected General Secretary of the Vietnamese Com Jan 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Australian Open Men's: Ben Shelton vs Dane Sweeny Jan 22 $105 $0 +0%
Hawks vs. Grizzlies Jan 22 $10 +$10 +104%
Thunder vs. Bucks Jan 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Pacers vs. Celtics Jan 22 $132 $0 -0%
Cavaliers vs. Hornets Jan 22 $20 +$6 +29%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-01-21? Jan 22 $101 +$35 +35%
Suns vs. 76ers: O/U 223.5 Jan 21 $134 +$151 +113%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-01-20? Jan 20 $101 +$33 +33%
Will SSC Napoli win on 2026-01-20? Jan 20 $104 −$104 -100%
Will Club Brugge KV win on 2026-01-20? Jan 20 $70 +$34 +49%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-01-20? Jan 20 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Egypt win on 2026-01-05? Jan 05 $115 −$115 -100%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-01-04? Jan 04 $116 −$116 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 43¢ $51 1h
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-28? BUY Yes 37¢ $20 51d
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. FC Bayern München: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 67¢ $50 51d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $210 87d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $156 87d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $50 87d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $20 87d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $20 87d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 1AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $20 87d
Raptors vs. Suns: O/U 220.5 SELL Under 100¢ $63 87d
Raptors vs. Suns: O/U 220.5 BUY Under 48¢ $30 87d
Raptors vs. Suns: O/U 220.5 SELL Under 33¢ $26 88d
Julius Randle: Assists O/U 4.5 SELL Yes 20¢ $5 88d
Raptors vs. Suns: O/U 220.5 BUY Under 39¢ $30 88d
Julius Randle: Assists O/U 4.5 BUY Yes 76¢ $20 88d
Wizards vs. Knicks: O/U 227.5 BUY Under 48¢ $20 88d
Real Madrid CF vs. Club Atlético de Madrid: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 100¢ $49 88d
Real Madrid CF vs. Club Atlético de Madrid: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 41¢ $20 88d
Tottenham Hotspur FC vs. Nottingham Forest FC: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $43 88d
Newcastle United FC vs. Sunderland AFC: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $40 88d
Aston Villa FC vs. West Ham United FC: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 18¢ $11 88d
Aston Villa FC vs. West Ham United FC: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 33¢ $20 88d
Tottenham Hotspur FC vs. Nottingham Forest FC: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 47¢ $20 88d
Newcastle United FC vs. Sunderland AFC: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 22¢ $10 88d
Newcastle United FC vs. Sunderland AFC: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 50¢ $20 88d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Up 17¢ $4 88d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $99 88d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $50 88d
Bucks vs. Suns: O/U 217.5 BUY Over 50¢ $29 88d
Lakers vs. Magic SELL Lakers 100¢ $178 88d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $18.62 · official $18.62 (match) · 395 history records