Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T15:40:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
59 0x59cb…b740 politics 55 markets active 2h ago coverage 230d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$113 (+3%) realized +$113 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate12%6W / 46L
Drawdown7%max
Avg bet$60per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$183now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$120
7 days+$120
14 days+$120
30 days+$120
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 37% −$3
sports 25% −$2
other 14% +$118
economics 9% $0
crypto 7% $0
world 5% $0
culture 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-14.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +90.4% +72.3% 50% 50% +69.3%
≤30d 6 +23.9% +12.1% 33% 17% +20.8%
≤90d 7 +20.4% +8.9% 29% 14% +15.4%
all 52 -5.3% -14.3% 12% 2% -6.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.3% 2% -6.2%
10% -22.5% 2% -15.2%
15% -30.0% 2% -23.4%
20% -36.9% 2% -30.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 99% · top 2 100% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +28% too few recent
Fragile wins
83% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt +4% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$20 vs −$0 · ×102.41 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×13.96 per $1 lost it wins $13.96
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

230d coverage
Net worth$183
Realized+$113
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)12%
Wins / losses6 / 46
Open positions3
Markets (closed)52 / 55
History coverage230d
Avg bet$60
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown7%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 52 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $181 $181 −$0 (-0%)
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-6%)
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $67 +$120 +181%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 20 $72 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $1 $0 -37%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 11 $75 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? Jun 04 $72 $0 +0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me May 30 $72 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 10 $74 $0 -1%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Feb 18 $75 $0 -0%
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Feb 08 $6 $0 -8%
US government shutdown Saturday? Feb 06 $71 $0 +0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jan 31 $4 $0 -7%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 30 $71 $0 -0%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jan 28 $1 $0 -33%
Will Ethereum reach $6,000 in January? Jan 28 $75 $0 +0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 26 $76 $0 +0%
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jan 24 $75 $0 -0%
Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 m Jan 23 $73 $0 +0%
Will Trump nominate Jerome Powell as the next Fed chair? Jan 21 $75 $0 -0%
Will Brighton win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Jan 19 $148 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jan 17 $75 $0 -0%
Will Jordan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jan 14 $75 $0 -0%
Will Brentford win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Jan 09 $76 $0 -1%
Will A Minecraft Movie be the top grossing movie of 2025? Jan 07 $74 $0 +0%
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 03 $229 $0 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 01 $75 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025? Dec 30 $1 $0 -17%
Will Ajax win the 2025–26 Champions League? Dec 29 $74 $0 -0%
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 28 $77 −$1 -1%
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 28 $71 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Dec 27 $74 $0 -0%
Will Villarreal win the 2025–26 Champions League? Dec 20 $74 $0 -0%
Will Nottm Forest win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Dec 19 $1 $0 -50%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Dec 18 $2 $0 -12%
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2025? Dec 18 $73 $0 -0%
Will the Charlotte Hornets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Dec 13 $78 $0 -0%
Will Monaco win the 2025–26 Champions League? Dec 08 $73 $0 -0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 06 $2 $0 -20%
Will Athletic Club win the 2025–26 Champions League? Dec 05 $73 $0 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Dec 05 $1 $0 -12%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 03 $1 $0 -20%
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 02 $78 $0 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 01 $79 $0 -0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Nov 29 $77 $0 -0%
Will Club Brugge win the 2025–26 Champions League? Nov 28 $1 $0 -50%
Will PSV win the 2025–26 Champions League? Nov 26 $77 $0 -0%
Will Jurassic World: Rebirth be the top grossing movie of 2025? Nov 25 $1 $0 -33%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after December 2025 meeting? Nov 23 $80 $0 -0%
Will Bournemouth win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Nov 23 $1 $0 -24%
Will the Arizona Cardinals win Super Bowl 2026? Nov 23 $2 −$1 -44%
Will Espanyol win the 2025–26 La Liga? Nov 18 $80 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $181 2h
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 2h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 35¢ $67 2d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 6d
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 6d
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $71 6d
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $72 11d
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 11d
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $3 15d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 15d
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $73 15d
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $74 17d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 17d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? BUY No 100¢ $72 26d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 26d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 28d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me SELL No 100¢ $72 28d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $72 29d
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $74 48d
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $74 114d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $75 129d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $75 139d
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 139d
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 140d
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 146d
US government shutdown Saturday? BUY Yes 100¢ $71 147d
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $2 147d
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 147d
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 147d
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $70 147d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $183.02 · official $183.02 (match) · 277 history records