Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T11:30:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
59 0x59cd…716f politics 541 markets active 1h ago coverage 282d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$411 (-0%) realized −$399 · open −$12
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate47%254W / 282L
Whale WR71%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$168per market
Trades / day10.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$38now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$11
7 days+$12
14 days+$12
30 days−$99
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 30% −$847
politics 27% +$1,577
world 26% −$1,989
tech 5% +$485
sports 3% −$134
culture 3% +$311
finance 2% −$4
crypto 2% +$155
economics 1% −$63
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-16.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -0.1% -9.6% 60% 40% +5.3%
≤30d 82 -12.0% -20.4% 29% 5% -14.2%
≤90d 219 -16.6% -24.6% 41% 21% -26.9%
all 536 -8.0% -16.8% 47% 27% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.8% 27% -10.0%
10% -24.7% 17% -18.6%
15% -32.0% 13% -26.5%
20% -38.7% 9% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -19% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
42% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 71% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +1% → late -17% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$32 vs −$31 · ×1.03 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.94 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

282d coverage
Net worth$38
Realized−$399
Unrealized−$12
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses254 / 282
Whale WR (big bets)71%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions5
Markets (closed)536 / 541
History coverage282d
Avg bet$168
Trades / day10.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 536 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Tesla sell a Cybercab for 30k or less in 2026? Yes 29¢ 26¢ $29 $25 −$3 (-12%)
Will the Democratic Party win the NC-01 House seat? Yes 46¢ 48¢ $7 $7 +$0 (+5%)
Will the Republican Party win the AZ-06 House seat? Yes 45¢ 22¢ $7 $3 −$3 (-50%)
Will the Republican Party win the UT-01 House seat? Yes 35¢ 9¢ $5 $1 −$4 (-74%)
Will the Republican Party win the AZ-01 House seat? Yes 46¢ 18¢ $3 $1 −$2 (-61%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Republican Party win the NE-02 House seat? Jun 28 $1 $0 +12%
Will the Republican Party win the NC-11 House seat? Jun 28 $4 −$2 -49%
Will the Republican Party win the TX-15 House seat? Jun 28 $3 −$1 -22%
Will the Republican Party win the NY-22 House seat? Jun 28 $4 $0 +2%
Will the Democratic Party win the PA-07 House seat? Jun 28 $6 −$2 -29%
Will the Republican Party win the FL-16 House seat? Jun 28 $6 −$1 -13%
Will the Democratic Party win the NV-04 House seat? Jun 28 $11 $0 +2%
Will the Republican Party win the FL-22 House seat? Jun 28 $30 +$15 +51%
Will the Republican Party win the VA-01 House seat? Jun 27 $5 +$1 +19%
Will the Democratic Party win the CT-05 House seat? Jun 21 $4 +$1 +28%
Will the Republican Party win the WI-06 House seat? Jun 12 $6 $0 -3%
Will Shri Thanedar be the Democratic Nominee for MI-13? Jun 07 $9 −$3 -34%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 05 $455 +$18 +4%
Will the Democratic Party win the FL-22 House seat? Jun 04 $71 −$16 -22%
Will the Democratic Party win the CA-27 House seat? Jun 03 $6 $0 +8%
Will the Republican Party win the CA-03 House seat? Jun 03 $1 $0 -50%
Trump renames Strait of Hormuz to "Strait of Trump" by May 31? Jun 01 $2 −$2 -86%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 31 $13 −$13 -98%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 31 $347 −$37 -11%
Will the Democratic Party win the NJ-07 House seat? May 31 $9 −$6 -70%
Will the Democratic Party win the IA-03 House seat? May 31 $5 −$2 -45%
Will the Republican Party win the WA-04 House seat? May 31 $4 $0 -3%
Will the Republican Party win the MN-07 House seat? May 31 $5 $0 -2%
Will the Republican Party win the UT-04 House seat? May 31 $4 $0 -0%
Will the Republican Party win the CA-20 House seat? May 31 $4 $0 +1%
Will the Democratic Party win the CA-07 House seat? May 31 $5 $0 -0%
Will the Republican Party win the OK-03 House seat? May 31 $5 $0 +2%
Will the Democratic Party win the NY-09 House seat? May 31 $5 $0 +2%
Will the Republican Party win the MS-03 House seat? May 31 $4 $0 +4%
Will the Republican Party win the IN-05 House seat? May 31 $5 $0 -1%
Will the Republican Party win the OH-10 House seat? May 31 $342 +$1 +0%
Will Cori Bush be the Democratic nominee for MO-01? May 31 $8 −$1 -13%
Will Wesley Bell be the Democratic nominee for MO-01? May 31 $17 −$2 -14%
Will the Republican Party win the MN-06 House seat? May 31 $10 −$3 -31%
Will the Republican Party win the NY-21 House seat? May 31 $10 −$2 -23%
Will the Republican Party win the NE-01 House seat? May 31 $8 $0 -6%
Will the Republican Party win the FL-02 House seat? May 31 $9 −$1 -14%
Hantavirus vaccine in 2026? May 31 $10 −$2 -17%
Will the Democratic Party win the OR-06 House seat? May 31 $9 $0 +4%
Will the Republican Party win the TX-06 House seat? May 31 $10 $0 -5%
Will the Republican Party win the TX-26 House seat? May 31 $10 $0 -3%
Will the Democratic Party win the NJ-06 House seat? May 31 $10 $0 -2%
Will the Republican Party win the AL-03 House seat? May 31 $10 $0 -4%
Will the Democratic Party win the CA-32 House seat? May 31 $10 $0 +1%
Will the Democratic Party win the MO-01 House seat? May 31 $10 $0 +1%
Will the Democratic Party win the NY-15 House seat? May 31 $10 $0 -0%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? May 31 $18 −$7 -40%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 30 $3 −$3 -80%
Will the Republican Party win the PA-16 House seat? May 30 $6 −$1 -11%
Will the Republican Party win the TX-38 House seat? May 30 $7 −$1 -13%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Republican Party win the NE-02 House seat? SELL Yes 23¢ $2 1h
Will the Republican Party win the NC-11 House seat? SELL Yes 44¢ $2 1h
Will the Republican Party win the TX-15 House seat? SELL Yes 46¢ $2 1h
Will the Republican Party win the NY-22 House seat? SELL No 89¢ $4 1h
Will the Democratic Party win the PA-07 House seat? SELL No 26¢ $5 1h
Will the Republican Party win the FL-16 House seat? SELL Yes 74¢ $5 1h
Will the Democratic Party win the NV-04 House seat? SELL Yes 87¢ $11 1h
Will the Republican Party win the FL-22 House seat? SELL Yes 47¢ $41 1h
Will the Republican Party win the VA-01 House seat? SELL Yes 51¢ $6 12h
Will the Democratic Party win the CT-05 House seat? SELL Yes 91¢ $3 6d
Will the Democratic Party win the CT-05 House seat? SELL Yes 91¢ $1 8d
Will the Republican Party win the WI-06 House seat? SELL Yes 84¢ $6 15d
Will Shri Thanedar be the Democratic Nominee for MI-13? SELL Yes 39¢ $6 20d
Will the Democratic Party win the FL-22 House seat? SELL Yes 51¢ $29 23d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $7 24d
Will the Democratic Party win the CA-27 House seat? SELL Yes 93¢ $7 24d
Will the Republican Party win the CA-03 House seat? SELL Yes 5¢ $0 25d
Trump renames Strait of Hormuz to "Strait of Trump" by May 31? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 27d
Trump renames Strait of Hormuz to "Strait of Trump" by May 31? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 27d
Trump renames Strait of Hormuz to "Strait of Trump" by May 31? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 27d
Trump renames Strait of Hormuz to "Strait of Trump" by May 31? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 27d
Trump renames Strait of Hormuz to "Strait of Trump" by May 31? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 27d
Trump renames Strait of Hormuz to "Strait of Trump" by May 31? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 27d
Trump renames Strait of Hormuz to "Strait of Trump" by May 31? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 27d
Trump renames Strait of Hormuz to "Strait of Trump" by May 31? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 27d
Trump renames Strait of Hormuz to "Strait of Trump" by May 31? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 27d
Will the Democratic Party win the FL-22 House seat? SELL Yes 46¢ $26 27d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 27d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 27d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 27d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $38.50 · official $38.50 (match) · 3034 history records