Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T03:48:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
59 0x59cf…11d2 other 31 markets active 1h ago coverage 72d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,536 (-16%) realized −$1,536 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate70%21W / 9L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$305per market
Trades / day3.8pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit35%portable
Net worth$44now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$83
7 days+$83
14 days−$266
30 days−$1,631
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 87% −$1,714
other 11% +$105
crypto 2% −$25
world 0% +$3
sports 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-15.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 -4.1% -13.2% 83% 35% -3.0%
≤30d 30 -6.4% -15.3% 70% 30% -25.2%
≤90d 30 -6.4% -15.3% 70% 30% -25.2%
all 30 -6.4% -15.3% 70% 30% -25.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.3% 30% -25.2%
10% -23.4% 10% -32.4%
15% -30.8% 3% -38.9%
20% -37.6% 0% -44.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 54% · top 2 73% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -17% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
57% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -17% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -20% → late +7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
5.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$16 vs −$217 · ×0.07 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.17 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

72d coverage
Net worth$44
Realized−$1,536
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)70%
Wins / losses21 / 9
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)30 / 31
History coverage72d
Avg bet$305
Trades / day3.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit35%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 30 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21? No 89¢ 88¢ $44 $44 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $42 +$3 +8%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $31 −$17 -56%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $132 +$63 +48%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $124 +$8 +6%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $111 +$13 +12%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $104 +$7 +7%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $98 +$6 +6%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $37 +$3 +8%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $35 +$5 +16%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $42 +$8 +19%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $37 +$3 +8%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $72 +$7 +9%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $70 +$1 +2%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $68 +$2 +3%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $31 +$3 +10%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $30 +$4 +13%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $17 +$3 +15%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $18 +$2 +14%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $6 +$1 +26%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $37 −$32 -88%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $5 $0 +1%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 −$4 -81%
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election Jun 13 $88 +$6 +7%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 11 $3,703 −$531 -14%
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election Jun 08 $527 +$176 +33%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 04 $361 −$63 -17%
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Jun 04 $10 $0 -3%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele May 31 $14 −$9 -67%
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? May 28 $3,547 −$1,292 -36%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 89¢ $45 1h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 38¢ $13 2h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 92¢ $42 3h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 85¢ $31 3h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 67¢ $132 8h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 94¢ $124 10h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $111 27h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 97¢ $73 28h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 85¢ $31 30h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 100¢ $46 32h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 95¢ $31 32h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 83¢ $21 39h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 92¢ $37 2d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 86¢ $35 2d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 92¢ $26 3d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 73¢ $15 3d
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 92¢ $37 3d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 94¢ $31 3d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 82¢ $12 3d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 93¢ $28 3d
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 98¢ $21 3d
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 98¢ $49 3d
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 97¢ $10 3d
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 97¢ $30 3d
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 97¢ $28 3d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 99¢ $1 4d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 99¢ $25 4d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 65¢ $5 4d
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 88¢ $30 4d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? SELL No 100¢ $20 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $44.25 · official $44.25 (match) · 303 history records