Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T09:08:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
59 0x59d2…1534 politics 119 markets active 2h ago coverage 115d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$86 (+0%) realized +$86 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate11%13W / 106L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown26%max
Avg bet$258per market
Trades / day2.5pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$2
30 days−$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 41% −$13
politics 40% −$16
sports 8% +$112
crypto 4% −$1
tech 4% −$1
economics 3% −$1
world 1% $0
culture 1% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-5.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 17 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 110 +4.4% -5.5% 7% 5% -9.4%
all 119 +4.2% -5.7% 11% 7% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.7% 7% -9.3%
10% -14.8% 7% -18.0%
15% -23.0% 4% -25.9%
20% -30.5% 3% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 45% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
38% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +9% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$1 · ×18.36 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.25 per $1 lost it wins $2.25
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

115d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$86
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)11%
Wins / losses13 / 106
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)119 / 119
History coverage115d
Avg bet$258
Trades / day2.5
Drawdown26%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 119 Trades
no open positions (3 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 20 $43 $0 -0%
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 20 $96 $0 -0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 19 $36 $0 -0%
Will Frank Donovan be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 15 $36 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 14 $25 $0 -0%
Will Bernard Cazeneuve win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 11 $289 $0 -0%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 10 $556 −$1 -0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 07 $45 $0 -0%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 06 $42 $0 -0%
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 05 $31 $0 -0%
Will Jair Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 31 $27 $0 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? May 30 $524 −$1 -0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 30 $41 $0 -0%
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 27 $226 $0 -0%
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 24 $290 −$1 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 23 $274 $0 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 22 $300 $0 -0%
Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 20 $205 $0 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 19 $293 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 18 $499 −$1 -0%
Will Betty Yee win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 17 $82 $0 -0%
Will Leo Zacky win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 16 $236 $0 -0%
Will Serbia win Eurovision 2026? May 13 $245 $0 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 13 $301 $0 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 12 $531 −$1 -0%
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 11 $41 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 11 $217 $0 +0%
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 10 $187 $0 -0%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 07 $248 $0 -0%
Will Montenegro win Eurovision 2026? May 06 $536 −$1 -0%
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 06 $256 $0 -0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in April? May 05 $49 $0 +0%
Will Portugal win Eurovision 2026? May 05 $405 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 04 $322 −$1 -0%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 03 $220 $0 -0%
Will Kyle Langford win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 03 $167 $0 -0%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 02 $157 $0 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 02 $891 −$1 -0%
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 01 $446 −$1 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 01 $240 $0 -0%
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 22 $208 $0 -0%
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 22 $479 $0 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 21 $272 $0 -0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 20 $457 $0 -0%
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 20 $288 $0 -0%
Will Baidu have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 20 $280 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Leite win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 19 $520 −$1 -0%
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 19 $486 $0 -0%
Will Lithuania win Eurovision 2026? Apr 19 $440 $0 -0%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 18 $547 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $43 1h
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $43 4h
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $50 8h
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $50 17h
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $36 19h
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $36 5d
Will Frank Donovan be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $36 5d
Will Frank Donovan be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $36 5d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $25 5d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $25 6d
Will Bernard Cazeneuve win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $25 8d
Will Bernard Cazeneuve win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $25 8d
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $29 10d
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $29 11d
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $45 12d
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $45 13d
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $42 13d
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $42 14d
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $31 14d
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $31 15d
Will Jair Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $27 19d
Will Jair Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $27 20d
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $40 20d
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $40 21d
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $41 21d
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $41 21d
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $46 21d
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $46 21d
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $226 23d
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $226 25d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 362 history records