Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T02:45:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
59 0x59d3…ab7a politics 43 markets active 1h ago coverage 527d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$15 (+1%) realized +$15 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -3% what you keep after slip
Net edge-3%after slip
Net WR10%break-even
Win rate45%19W / 23L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$49per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$37now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days+$2
14 days+$3
30 days+$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 42% +$19
other 27% +$8
sports 16% −$3
world 15% −$8
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-3.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -0.4% -9.9% 50% 0% -8.8%
≤30d 11 +0.2% -9.3% 36% 0% -8.9%
≤90d 28 +1.2% -8.4% 43% 4% -8.4%
all 42 +7.2% -3.0% 45% 10% -8.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -3.0% 10% -8.8%
10% -12.3% 7% -17.6%
15% -20.8% 5% -25.5%
20% -28.5% 5% -32.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 39% · top 2 59% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
79% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +7% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +13% → late +2% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$2 · ×1.05 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.66 per $1 lost it wins $1.66
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

527d coverage
Net worth$37
Realized+$15
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses19 / 23
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)42 / 43
History coverage527d
Avg bet$49
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 42 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? No 92¢ 92¢ $37 $37 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 18 $1 $0 -8%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? Jun 18 $44 +$1 +1%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 18 $39 $0 +1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 17 $33 +$1 +3%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 15 $25 $0 +0%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 13 $85 $0 -0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 11 $41 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 10 $38 $0 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 09 $17 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 09 $39 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 08 $17 +$1 +5%
Will Denmark win Eurovision 2026? Apr 27 $115 $0 +0%
Will the All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (ADMK) win the most Apr 26 $42 $0 +1%
Will Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK) win the most seats in the 2026 Tam Apr 26 $102 +$3 +3%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 08 $145 −$1 -0%
Will Sporting win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 07 $306 +$2 +1%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 07 $13 +$2 +15%
Will the Charlotte Hornets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 07 $6 +$1 +8%
Will US withdraw from NATO by April 30? Apr 07 $13 $0 -1%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 06 $94 +$1 +1%
Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 06 $317 +$15 +5%
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 06 $19 $0 +0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 05 $7 $0 -0%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 04 $152 −$1 -1%
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 04 $198 +$1 +0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 03 $32 $0 +0%
Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 03 $12 $0 +0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 03 $28 $0 +0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 16 $1 $0 -0%
Will the Denver Broncos win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 16 $2 $0 -8%
Will George Russell be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Dec 07 $2 $0 +2%
Will Lee Jae-myung win by over 23%? Jun 05 $2 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum reach $2600 in April? May 05 $1 $0 +1%
Will the Winnipeg Jets win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Mar 27 $4 $0 +0%
Artur Beterbiev vs. Dmitry Bivol Mar 03 $2 +$3 +108%
BYU vs. West Virginia Feb 12 $11 −$11 -95%
Will Borussia Dortmund beat Stuttgart? Feb 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the match between Aston Villa and Celtic end in a draw? Feb 05 $5 +$1 +27%
Will the match between Barcelona and Atalanta end in a draw? Feb 05 $2 +$8 +335%
Will Trump appeal his hush money conviction? Jan 29 $1 $0 +1%
Will another individual win the Romanian Presidential election? Jan 29 $14 −$1 -4%
Will Călin Georgescu win the Romanian Presidential election by 0-5%? Jan 28 $11 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $37 1h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 5¢ $1 7h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 9h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL No 73¢ $45 11h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY No 72¢ $44 12h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 84¢ $39 24h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 83¢ $39 27h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL Yes 39¢ $34 32h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 38¢ $33 34h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 41¢ $25 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 41¢ $25 3d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $42 6d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $42 6d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $42 6d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $42 6d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? SELL No 44¢ $6 8d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? SELL No 44¢ $36 8d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? BUY No 44¢ $41 8d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 55¢ $38 8d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 55¢ $12 8d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 55¢ $27 8d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL Yes 44¢ $17 9d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? BUY Yes 44¢ $17 9d
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? SELL Yes 67¢ $39 10d
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? BUY Yes 67¢ $39 10d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL Yes 21¢ $8 10d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL Yes 21¢ $8 10d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL Yes 21¢ $1 10d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY Yes 20¢ $1 10d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY Yes 20¢ $8 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $36.80 · official $37.00 (match) · 133 history records