Wallet analysis — Alpha Desk

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days$0

7 days$0

14 days$0

30 days$0

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Google Gemini 3 score at least 60% on the FrontierMath Benchmark by?	Yes	2¢	0¢	$55	$0	−$55 (-100%)
Will Google Gemini 3 score at least 50% on the FrontierMath Benchmark?	Yes	6¢	0¢	$29	$0	−$29 (-100%)
Will Google Gemini 3 score at least 70% on the FrontierMath Benchmark?	Yes	9¢	0¢	$896	$0	−$896 (-100%)
Will Google Gemini 3 score at least 40% on the FrontierMath Benchmark?	Yes	2¢	0¢	$10	$0	−$10 (-100%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Google Gemini 3 score at least 40% on the FrontierMath Benchmark?	Jan 30	$878	+$678	+77%
Will Google Gemini 3 score at least 50% on the FrontierMath Benchmark?	Jan 17	$2,459	−$1,637	-67%
Will Google Gemini 3 score at least 60% on the FrontierMath Benchmark	Jan 17	$1,192	−$912	-76%
Will Google Gemini 3 score at least 70% on the FrontierMath Benchmark?	Jan 03	$896	−$896	-100%
Will Google Gemini 3 score at least 40% on Humanity’s Last Exam by Jan	Jan 01	$3,922	−$1,223	-31%
Will Kendrick Lamar be the #2 searched person on Google this year?	Dec 04	$145	+$552	+381%
Will Anora be the #1 searched movie on Google this year?	Dec 04	$1,113	+$13,082	+1176%
Will d4vd be the #1 searched person on Google this year?	Dec 04	$1,553	+$19,190	+1236%
Will Terence Crawford be the #1 searched athlete on Google this year?	Dec 04	$628	+$1,118	+178%
Gemini 3.0 Flash released by December 31?	Nov 30	$1,000	+$264	+26%
Gemini 3.0 Flash released by December 15?	Nov 23	$2,712	+$5,998	+221%
Will Google Gemini 3 score at least 30% on Humanity’s Last Exam by Jan	Nov 21	$316	+$75	+24%
Will Gemini 3.0 be released by November 15?	Nov 14	$1,128	−$583	-52%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

tech 67% +$16,945

other 27% +$5,679

culture 6% +$13,082

Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Google Gemini 3 score at least 40% on the FrontierMath Benchmark?	BUY Yes	2¢	$10	132d
Will Google Gemini 3 score at least 50% on the FrontierMath Benchmark?	BUY Yes	6¢	$29	145d
Will Google Gemini 3 score at least 60% on the FrontierMath Benchmark	BUY Yes	2¢	$55	145d
Will Google Gemini 3 score at least 50% on the FrontierMath Benchmark?	SELL Yes	6¢	$433	146d
Will Google Gemini 3 score at least 60% on the FrontierMath Benchmark	SELL Yes	3¢	$280	146d
Will Google Gemini 3 score at least 70% on the FrontierMath Benchmark?	BUY Yes	3¢	$29	159d
Will Google Gemini 3 score at least 50% on the FrontierMath Benchmark?	BUY Yes	9¢	$45	159d
Will Google Gemini 3 score at least 60% on the FrontierMath Benchmark	BUY Yes	5¢	$16	159d
Will Google Gemini 3 score at least 40% on the FrontierMath Benchmark?	SELL Yes	49¢	$309	159d
Will Google Gemini 3 score at least 50% on the FrontierMath Benchmark?	BUY Yes	14¢	$6	161d
Will Google Gemini 3 score at least 60% on the FrontierMath Benchmark	BUY Yes	5¢	$4	161d
Will Google Gemini 3 score at least 70% on the FrontierMath Benchmark?	BUY Yes	5¢	$2	161d
Will Google Gemini 3 score at least 40% on Humanity’s Last Exam by Jan	SELL Yes	31¢	$929	161d
Will Google Gemini 3 score at least 40% on the FrontierMath Benchmark?	SELL Yes	55¢	$503	161d
Will Google Gemini 3 score at least 50% on the FrontierMath Benchmark?	BUY Yes	11¢	$14	161d
Will Google Gemini 3 score at least 50% on the FrontierMath Benchmark?	BUY Yes	11¢	$28	161d
Will Google Gemini 3 score at least 50% on the FrontierMath Benchmark?	BUY Yes	10¢	$44	161d
Will Google Gemini 3 score at least 70% on the FrontierMath Benchmark?	BUY Yes	5¢	$10	163d
Will Google Gemini 3 score at least 60% on the FrontierMath Benchmark	BUY Yes	8¢	$25	163d
Will Google Gemini 3 score at least 50% on the FrontierMath Benchmark?	BUY Yes	16¢	$18	163d
Will Google Gemini 3 score at least 50% on the FrontierMath Benchmark?	BUY Yes	25¢	$12	171d
Will Google Gemini 3 score at least 50% on the FrontierMath Benchmark?	BUY Yes	24¢	$10	171d
Will Google Gemini 3 score at least 70% on the FrontierMath Benchmark?	BUY Yes	7¢	$50	171d
Will Google Gemini 3 score at least 70% on the FrontierMath Benchmark?	BUY Yes	7¢	$4	171d
Will Google Gemini 3 score at least 60% on the FrontierMath Benchmark	BUY Yes	10¢	$10	171d
Will Google Gemini 3 score at least 60% on the FrontierMath Benchmark	BUY Yes	9¢	$53	171d
Will Google Gemini 3 score at least 40% on Humanity’s Last Exam by Jan	SELL Yes	31¢	$931	171d
Will Google Gemini 3 score at least 50% on the FrontierMath Benchmark?	BUY Yes	24¢	$5	174d
Will Google Gemini 3 score at least 50% on the FrontierMath Benchmark?	BUY Yes	24¢	$5	174d
Will Google Gemini 3 score at least 50% on the FrontierMath Benchmark?	BUY Yes	24¢	$5	174d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +62%

net ROI/market (all)+328.7%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	no closed markets
≤30d	no closed markets
≤90d	no closed markets
all	13	+373.8%	+328.7%	62%	62%	+243.0%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

turnover4.5 tr/day

realistic slip~9%

edge survives to20%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+328.7%	62%	+243.0%
10%	+287.7%	62%	+210.2%
15%	+250.2%	46%	+180.2%
20%	+215.9%	46%	+152.7%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.