Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T07:39:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
59 0x59d7…ba8e other 376 markets active 2h ago coverage 303d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$3,769 (+0%) realized +$3,624 · open +$145
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate99%361W / 2L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown1%max
Avg bet$2,232per market
Trades / day3.5pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$31,595now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$2
14 days+$135
30 days+$194
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 30% +$1,152
politics 24% +$1,217
crypto 20% +$394
world 6% +$241
sports 6% +$273
weather 6% +$51
economics 4% +$265
tech 2% +$18
culture 1% +$67
finance 0% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-6.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 22 +0.6% -9.0% 100% 0% -9.3%
≤90d 85 +12.8% +2.0% 99% 1% -9.1%
all 363 +3.3% -6.6% 99% 0% -9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.5 tr/day
realistic slip~12%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -6.6% 0% -9.1%
10% ← realistic here -15.5% 0% -17.8%
15% -23.7% 0% -25.8%
20% -31.1% 0% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$2,739) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +1% → late +6% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$18 · ×0.55 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×100.13 per $1 lost it wins $100.13
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

303d coverage
Net worth$31,595
Realized+$3,624
Unrealized+$145
Win rate (resolved)99%
Wins / losses361 / 2
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions13
Markets (closed)363 / 376
History coverage303d
Avg bet$2,232
Trades / day3.5
Drawdown1%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 13 History 363 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $72,500 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $14,860 $14,867 +$7 (+0%)
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? No 100¢ 100¢ $5,092 $5,094 +$2 (+0%)
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? No 98¢ 100¢ $4,795 $4,905 +$110 (+2%)
Bitcoin all time high by June 30, 2026? No 99¢ 100¢ $3,259 $3,298 +$39 (+1%)
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? No 89¢ 88¢ $903 $898 −$5 (-1%)
Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon announce their candidacy for the 2027 French presidential election in 2026? Yes 100¢ 97¢ $529 $516 −$14 (-3%)
Will US withdraw from NATO by June 30? No 97¢ 100¢ $484 $500 +$16 (+3%)
Wimbledon ATP: Yibing Wu vs Novak Djokovic Novak Djokovic 94¢ 94¢ $470 $468 −$2 (-1%)
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-30? No 92¢ 92¢ $367 $369 +$2 (+1%)
World Cup Goals H2H: Messi vs. Ronaldo Messi 99¢ 97¢ $344 $337 −$7 (-2%)
Will Juanma Moreno be the next President of Andalusia following the regional election? Yes 100¢ 98¢ $199 $196 −$4 (-2%)
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-07-03? No 96¢ 96¢ $145 $144 −$1 (-0%)
Macron out by June 30, 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Spain advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 27 $415 +$1 +0%
Will France advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $1,591 +$2 +0%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $21,151 +$41 +0%
Will SpaceX IPO on June 11, 2026? Jun 19 $91 $0 +0%
Will Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Jun 19 $7,000 +$85 +1%
Will Lionel Messi play in the World Cup? Jun 17 $656 +$6 +1%
Will SpaceX's market cap be less than $1.0T at market close on IPO day Jun 12 $1,991 +$2 +0%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.0T and $1.5T at market close on Jun 12 $767 +$1 +0%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $4T? Jun 12 $15,110 +$15 +0%
Will SpaceX’s opening share price on its first day of trading be betwe Jun 12 $6 $0 +0%
Will SpaceX’s closing share price on its first day of trading be less Jun 12 $2,110 +$3 +0%
Will the ECB announce a 50+ bps increase at the June 2026 meeting? Jun 11 $998 +$2 +0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the Ohio Governor Republican Primary Election Jun 06 $100 $0 +0%
Will Nationalist Party win the third-most seats in the House of Repres Jun 06 $940 +$1 +0%
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by May 31? Jun 06 $999 +$1 +0%
US takes a stake in Spirit Airlines by May 31? Jun 06 $999 +$1 +0%
Will Alex Borg be the next Prime Minister of Malta following the 2026 Jun 06 $1,697 +$3 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Jun 06 $9,990 +$10 +0%
Will Robert Abela be the next Prime Minister of Malta following the 20 Jun 06 $11,100 +$13 +0%
Will Imperium Europa win the third-most seats in the House of Represen Jun 06 $94 $0 +0%
Will Labour Party win the most seats in the House of Representatives i Jun 01 $9 $0 +0%
Roland Garros ATP: Quentin Halys vs Alexander Zverev May 31 $93 +$7 +7%
Will Wesley Hunt win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary? May 27 $1,540 +$11 +1%
Roland Garros ATP: Jannik Sinner vs Clement Tabur May 27 $24,193 +$140 +1%
Will Andrea Martella win the 2026 Venice mayoral election? May 25 $340 +$5 +2%
Will the match end in a draw? May 24 $33 $0 +0%
Will Leinster win? May 24 $355 +$1 +0%
Will Union Bordeaux Begles win? May 24 $7,242 +$65 +1%
Will Racing Club de Lens win on 2026-05-22? May 23 $990 +$10 +1%
Will Partido Socialista Obrero Español de Andalucía (PSOE-A) win the A May 18 $2,739 +$4 +0%
Will Partido Popular (PP) win the Andalusia regional election? May 18 $2,836 +$3 +0%
Will Sweden come in last place at Eurovision 2026? May 17 $8 $0 +0%
Will Denmark come in last place at Eurovision 2026? May 17 $43 $0 +0%
Will United Kingdom win Eurovision 2026? May 17 $3,992 +$8 +0%
Will Malta win Eurovision 2026? May 17 $20,177 +$77 +0%
Will Alfonso López Chau finish in first place in the first round of th May 16 $284 +$2 +1%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 French Ligue 1? May 14 $109 +$1 +1%
Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 La Liga? May 14 $593 +$4 +1%
Will Finland advance through the first Eurovision Semi-Final? May 14 $3,347 +$6 +0%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? May 09 $10,935 +$13 +0%
Will Rumen Radev be the next prime minister of Bulgaria after the 2026 May 08 $8,755 +$129 +2%
Will Manchester City finish in the top 4 of the EPL 2025–26 standings? May 05 $13 $0 +1%
Will Lens finish in the top 4 of the Ligue 1 2025–26 standings? May 05 $56 $0 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 44-45°F on May May 03 $230 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026? May 01 $976 −$28 -3%
Will US withdraw from NATO by April 30? May 01 $7,316 +$16 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in April? May 01 $11,940 +$56 +0%
Will Bayonne win? Apr 26 $6 $0 +1%
Will the match end in a draw? Apr 26 $20 $0 +0%
Will Toulon win? Apr 26 $74 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Wimbledon ATP: Yibing Wu vs Novak Djokovic BUY Novak Djokovic 94¢ $471 1h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-07-03? BUY No 96¢ $90 25h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-07-03? BUY No 97¢ $55 25h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-30? BUY No 92¢ $368 25h
Will Bitcoin reach $72,500 in June? BUY No 100¢ $14,863 25h
Bitcoin all time high by June 30, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $147 5d
Bitcoin all time high by June 30, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $480 5d
Bitcoin all time high by June 30, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin all time high by June 30, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $249 5d
Bitcoin all time high by June 30, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $283 5d
Bitcoin all time high by June 30, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin all time high by June 30, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $0 5d
Bitcoin all time high by June 30, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $830 5d
World Cup Goals H2H: Messi vs. Ronaldo BUY Messi 99¢ $344 6d
Will Spain advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 100¢ $415 7d
Will France advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 100¢ $1,591 7d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 100¢ $1,455 7d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 100¢ $9,990 7d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 100¢ $383 7d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 100¢ $3,323 7d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 100¢ $658 7d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 100¢ $665 7d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 100¢ $498 7d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 100¢ $332 7d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 100¢ $3,847 7d
Macron out by June 30, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $0 9d
Macron out by June 30, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $0 9d
Macron out by June 30, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $2 10d
Will Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY No 99¢ $377 15d
Will Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY No 99¢ $216 15d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $31,594.83 · official $31,594.83 (match) · 1491 history records