Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T23:44:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
59 0x59d9…2542 sports 26 markets active 6d ago coverage 141d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$6 (+0%) realized +$6 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate19%5W / 21L
Drawdown57%max
Avg bet$225per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 38% −$3
sports 35% +$10
other 26% −$2
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-9.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +0.3% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.3%
≤30d 3 +0.2% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.3%
≤90d 5 +0.1% -9.4% 80% 0% -9.4%
all 26 +0.6% -9.0% 19% 4% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.0% 4% -9.4%
10% -17.7% 4% -18.1%
15% -25.7% 4% -26.0%
20% -32.9% 4% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% too few recent
Fragile wins
80% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +9% → late -8% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$0 · ×7.08 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.69 per $1 lost it wins $1.69
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

141d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$6
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)19%
Wins / losses5 / 21
Open positions0
Markets (closed)26 / 26
History coverage141d
Avg bet$225
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown57%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 26 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 June 8-14? Jun 15 $8 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? Jun 12 $5 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on April 16? May 25 $5 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 March 30-April 5? Apr 15 $6 $0 +0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 01 $9 $0 -0%
Trail Blazers vs. Bulls Feb 26 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the Chicago Bulls win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jan 29 $366 $0 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jan 29 $364 $0 -0%
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 29 $292 $0 -0%
Will Villarreal win the 2025–26 La Liga? Jan 28 $394 −$1 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jan 28 $374 $0 -0%
Will the Atlanta Hawks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jan 28 $385 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Clippers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jan 28 $19 $0 -1%
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jan 27 $318 −$1 -0%
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 27 $297 $0 -0%
Will Bodo Glimt win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jan 27 $379 $0 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 26 $279 $0 -0%
Will Haiti win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jan 26 $253 $0 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jan 24 $393 $0 -0%
Will Casper Ruud win the 2026 Australian Open? Jan 24 $292 $0 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jan 24 $376 $0 -0%
Will Union Saint-Gilloise win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jan 23 $264 $0 -0%
Rockets vs. 76ers Jan 23 $13 +$15 +117%
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jan 23 $279 $0 -0%
Will Denis Shapovalov win the 2026 Australian Open? Jan 22 $239 $0 -0%
Will Valencia win the 2025–26 La Liga? Jan 22 $247 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 June 8-14? BUY No 100¢ $8 5d
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $5 23d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on April 16? BUY No 100¢ $5 62d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 March 30-April 5? BUY No 100¢ $6 77d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $9 77d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $9 109d
Trail Blazers vs. Bulls BUY Bulls 38¢ $2 111d
Will the Chicago Bulls win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 100¢ $366 139d
Will the Chicago Bulls win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 100¢ $366 139d
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $363 139d
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $364 139d
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $291 139d
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $292 139d
Will Villarreal win the 2025–26 La Liga? SELL No 100¢ $393 140d
Will Villarreal win the 2025–26 La Liga? BUY No 100¢ $394 140d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $374 140d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $374 140d
Will the Atlanta Hawks win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 100¢ $385 140d
Will the Atlanta Hawks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 100¢ $385 140d
Will the Los Angeles Clippers win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 98¢ $19 140d
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $318 141d
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $318 141d
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $297 141d
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $297 141d
Will Bodo Glimt win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL No 100¢ $379 141d
Will Bodo Glimt win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY No 100¢ $379 141d
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $279 142d
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $279 142d
Will Haiti win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $253 142d
Will Haiti win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $253 142d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 57 history records