Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T15:28:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
59 0x59d9…2e54 politics 136 markets active 2h ago coverage 108d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$27 (-0%) realized −$27 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate16%22W / 113L
Whale WR17%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$150per market
Trades / day4.6pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$45now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$7
7 days−$12
14 days−$15
30 days−$29
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 33% −$15
other 22% −$13
sports 17% −$11
crypto 8% +$7
economics 7% +$2
culture 5% −$1
finance 4% −$5
world 3% −$7
tech 1% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 -0.6% -10.1% 18% 0% -9.9%
≤30d 64 -0.5% -10.0% 14% 0% -9.9%
≤90d 105 -0.4% -9.9% 15% 0% -9.8%
all 135 -0.3% -9.8% 16% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.8% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.4% 0% -18.4%
15% -26.3% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.6% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 36% · top 2 61% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 17% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.92 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.39 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

108d coverage
Net worth$45
Realized−$27
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)16%
Wins / losses22 / 113
Whale WR (big bets)17%
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)135 / 136
History coverage108d
Avg bet$150
Trades / day4.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 135 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ferran Torres be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 98¢ 98¢ $45 $45 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 19 $414 −$1 -0%
Will Switzerland reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $45 −$2 -5%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 18 $568 −$3 -0%
Will Czechia reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $15 $0 -2%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom Jun 18 $94 $0 -0%
Will Miami Heat win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 17 $5 $0 -0%
Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 17 $84 $0 +0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 17 $62 $0 -0%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 16 $123 −$1 -1%
Will the Tampa Bay Rays win the 2026 World Series? Jun 16 $53 $0 -0%
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 16 $111 −$1 -1%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 15 $424 −$1 -0%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 15 $98 $0 -0%
Will Croatia reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 15 $53 $0 -1%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of June? Jun 14 $55 +$1 +2%
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 14 $172 $0 -0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 14 $60 $0 +0%
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 14 $49 $0 +1%
Will Denver Nuggets win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 13 $43 −$1 -2%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $100 $0 -0%
Will the Baltimore Ravens win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 13 $111 $0 -0%
Will Boston Celtics win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 12 $28 $0 -2%
Will Ferrari be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 12 $100 −$1 -1%
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 12 $47 $0 -0%
Will Turkiye reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $55 −$2 -3%
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 11 $51 $0 -1%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 11 $59 +$1 +2%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $36 $0 -0%
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 10 $108 −$1 -1%
Will Wes Streeting be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in Jun 09 $114 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 09 $49 −$1 -2%
Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 09 $100 +$1 +1%
Will Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 07 $63 $0 -0%
Will The Odyssey be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 06 $49 −$1 -1%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 05 $119 −$1 -0%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T? Jun 05 $49 +$1 +3%
Will Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 05 $50 $0 -0%
Will the Philadelphia Eagles win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 04 $194 −$1 -0%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 04 $90 $0 -0%
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 04 $63 $0 -0%
Will Ed Miliband be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2 Jun 03 $55 $0 -1%
Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 03 $39 $0 -0%
Will François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 02 $257 $0 -0%
Will there be no Head of State in Iran end of 2026? Jun 02 $51 $0 -0%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 02 $109 $0 -0%
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 01 $41 $0 +1%
Will Raphaël Glucksmann win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 01 $207 −$1 -0%
Will Dominique de Villepin win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 01 $42 $0 -0%
Will Chad Bianco win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 30 $163 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 30 $532 −$2 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ferran Torres be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $45 1h
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 90¢ $52 2h
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 90¢ $52 10h
Will Switzerland reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 92¢ $43 10h
Will Switzerland reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 97¢ $45 18h
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 93¢ $47 18h
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 94¢ $48 26h
Will Czechia reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 96¢ $14 27h
Will Czechia reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $15 33h
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom SELL No 91¢ $41 33h
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom BUY No 91¢ $42 41h
Will Miami Heat win the 2027 NBA Finals? SELL No 97¢ $5 42h
Will Miami Heat win the 2027 NBA Finals? BUY No 97¢ $5 2d
Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $39 2d
Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $39 2d
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 97¢ $62 2d
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $62 2d
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL No 97¢ $58 2d
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 98¢ $59 3d
Will the Tampa Bay Rays win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 96¢ $53 3d
Will the Tampa Bay Rays win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 96¢ $53 3d
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 96¢ $59 3d
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 97¢ $60 3d
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 97¢ $55 3d
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 97¢ $55 3d
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 98¢ $47 3d
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 98¢ $47 4d
Will Croatia reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? SELL No 96¢ $52 4d
Will Croatia reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY No 97¢ $53 4d
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 95¢ $50 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $44.80 · official $44.80 (match) · 534 history records