Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T16:31:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
59 0x59dc…9e14 crypto 1760 markets active 4d ago coverage 21d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 21d only
✗ bot/MM pace (98 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ net negative once open positions are counted
Total PnL −$161 (-2%) realized +$28 · open −$189
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate96%1682W / 76L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day98.3pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$224now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$10
14 days−$10
30 days−$26
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 94% −$26
other 6% −$189
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (98 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-10.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 381 -2.6% -11.9% 85% 24% -11.7%
≤30d 1758 -0.7% -10.2% 96% 5% -9.8%
≤90d 1758 -0.7% -10.2% 96% 5% -9.8%
all 1758 -0.7% -10.2% 96% 5% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover98.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.2% 5% -9.8%
10% ← realistic here -18.8% 3% -18.5%
15% -26.6% 2% -26.4%
20% -33.8% 1% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
94% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$2 · ×0.04 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.83 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

21d coverage
Net worth$224
Realized+$28
Unrealized−$189
Win rate (resolved)96%
Wins / losses1682 / 76
Open positions2
Markets (closed)1758 / 1760
History coverage21d ⚠
Avg bet$4
Trades / day98.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 1758 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $410 $222 −$188 (-46%)
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $3 $2 −$2 (-50%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 56 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -99%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +2%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +2%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +6%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +2%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +13%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +13%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -95%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +4%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$2 +224%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +9%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +2%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +3%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +6%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +2%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +7%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +3%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $3 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $1 4d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET SELL Down 98¢ $1 4d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $1 4d
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET SELL Down 98¢ $1 4d
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET SELL Down 98¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $1 4d
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET SELL Down 98¢ $1 4d
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Down 76¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET SELL Down 98¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $1 4d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET SELL Down 98¢ $1 4d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET BUY Down 85¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET SELL Up 98¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET SELL Down 98¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $1 4d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $1 4d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $1 4d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET SELL Up 98¢ $1 4d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Up 82¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET SELL Down 98¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $1 4d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Up 25¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET SELL Up 98¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $1 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $223.58 · official $223.58 (match) · 3500 history records