Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T22:37:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

59
0x59dd…7cff
weather · 175 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$319 -10%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$299 · open −$20
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP weather specialistFresh edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$6
Realized−$299
Unrealized−$20
Win rate (resolved)23%
Wins / losses39 / 130
Est. fees paid−$32
Open positions6
Markets (closed)169 / 175
History coverage88d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day3.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 6 History 169 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$41
7 days+$33
14 days+$7
30 days+$32
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on June 13? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $6 $5 −$0 (-5%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on June 13? Yes 14¢ 4¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-68%)
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on June 13? Yes 10¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-95%)
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 29°C on June 12? Yes 5¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-98%)
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 94-95°F on June 12? Yes 29¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-99%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 18°C or higher on June 12? Yes 9¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-99%)
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on May 25? Yes 7¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on May 23? Yes 7¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 2? Yes 7¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C on June 5? Yes 7¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C on May 25? Yes 8¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on May 27? Yes 12¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 64-65°F on May 28? Yes 10¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on May 30? Yes 8¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 33°C on June 3? Yes 7¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 29°C on June 9? Yes 9¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 30°C on June 10? Yes 7¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on June 2? Yes 6¢ 0¢ $13 $0 −$13 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 25°C on May 14? Yes 28¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 20°C on June 11? Yes 23¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 84-85°F on May 26? Yes 6¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Spread: Spurs (-2.5) Spurs 48¢ 0¢ $24 $0 −$24 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 34°C on June 3? Yes 11¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 17°C on June 12? Yes 18¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
MVP Fight Night: Ronda Rousey vs. Gina Carano Carano 20¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 94-95°F on June 12? Jun 12 $5 +$16 +292%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 12? Jun 12 $6 −$2 -36%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 29°C on June 12? Jun 11 $10 −$10 -96%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 17°C on June 12? Jun 11 $6 −$5 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 23°C on June 12? Jun 11 $4 −$4 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 11? Jun 11 $7 +$18 +258%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 16°C on June 11? Jun 11 $6 +$29 +460%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on June 10? Jun 10 $8 −$5 -55%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on Ju Jun 10 $5 +$19 +394%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 20°C on June 11? Jun 10 $5 −$5 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 30°C on June 10? Jun 09 $0 $0 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 23°C on June 10? Jun 09 $10 −$10 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 29°C on June 9? Jun 08 $5 −$5 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 28°C on June 8? Jun 07 $3 −$3 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 28°C on June 6? Jun 05 $14 −$14 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on June 5? Jun 05 $1 +$12 +985%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 80-81°F on June 4? Jun 04 $9 −$4 -44%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C on June 5? Jun 04 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 82-83°F on June 5? Jun 03 $5 −$5 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 34°C on June 3? Jun 02 $9 −$8 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 33°C on June 3? Jun 02 $5 −$5 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be 92°F or higher on June 3? Jun 02 $5 −$5 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 2? Jun 01 $5 −$5 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on June 2? Jun 01 $13 −$13 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 28°C on June 1? Jun 01 $9 −$9 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 1? Jun 01 $10 $0 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 1? May 31 $7 −$6 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on May 30? May 30 $7 +$37 +519%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 84°F or higher on May 29? May 29 $85 +$78 +91%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on May 30? May 29 $5 −$5 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on May 30? May 28 $3 −$3 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 84-85°F on May 28? May 28 $7 +$25 +374%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 64-65°F on Ma May 28 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 24°C on May 28? May 27 $2 −$2 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 84-85°F on May 26? May 26 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 30°C on May 27? May 25 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on May 27? May 25 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on May 27? May 25 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 29°C on May 26? May 25 $4 −$3 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on May 26? May 25 $5 −$5 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on May 25? May 24 $4 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on May 25? May 24 $4 −$4 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 31°C on May 25? May 23 $4 −$4 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C on May 25? May 23 $2 −$2 -96%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. New York Yankees May 22 $20 −$20 -99%
Spread: Spurs (-2.5) May 22 $24 −$24 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be 90°F or higher on May 22? May 22 $2 +$98 +4753%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on May 23? May 22 $7 −$7 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on May 21? May 20 $5 −$5 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on May 22? May 20 $3 −$3 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 75% −$396
weather 25% +$77
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 94-95°F on June 12? SELL Yes 86¢ $21 1h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 12? SELL Yes 19¢ $4 3h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on June 13? BUY Yes 11¢ $6 4h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 12? BUY Yes 27¢ $6 7h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 29°C on June 12? BUY Yes 9¢ $2 22h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 29°C on June 12? BUY Yes 9¢ $2 23h
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 17°C on June 12? BUY Yes 18¢ $6 24h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 23°C on June 12? BUY Yes 18¢ $4 26h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 11? SELL Yes 99¢ $25 27h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on June 13? BUY Yes 14¢ $2 28h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 29°C on June 12? BUY Yes 18¢ $6 28h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 94-95°F on June 12? BUY Yes 29¢ $6 28h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 94-95°F on June 12? BUY Yes 21¢ $5 28h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on June 13? BUY Yes 10¢ $4 28h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on June 13? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 28h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 29°C on June 12? BUY Yes 7¢ $3 30h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 29°C on June 12? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 30h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 29°C on June 12? BUY Yes 4¢ $3 30h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 29°C on June 12? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 30h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 29°C on June 12? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 30h
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 16°C on June 11? SELL Yes 99¢ $35 32h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on June 10? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 2d
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 18°C or higher on June 12? BUY Yes 9¢ $2 2d
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on June 10? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on June 10? SELL Yes 9¢ $3 2d
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on Ju SELL Yes 98¢ $24 2d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 11? BUY Yes 27¢ $7 2d
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on Ju BUY Yes 19¢ $5 2d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 20°C on June 11? BUY Yes 23¢ $5 2d
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 16°C on June 11? BUY Yes 17¢ $6 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)-10.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 +36.7% +23.7% 29% 29% +27.4%
≤30d 58 +12.7% +2.0% 16% 16% -14.5%
≤90d 169 -1.3% -10.7% 23% 22% -20.1%
all 169 -1.3% -10.7% 23% 22% -20.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover3.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.7% 22% -20.1%
10% -19.2% 22% -27.7%
15% -27.0% 22% -34.7%
20% -34.2% 21% -41.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6.34 · official $6.34 (match) · 412 history records