Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T01:40:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
59 0x59dd…d470 other 27 markets active 20h ago coverage 862d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$8 (-3%) realized −$8 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -23% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR19%break-even
Win rate23%6W / 20L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day0.0pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit48%portable
Net worth$5now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$3
7 days−$28
14 days−$6
30 days−$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 72% +$10
sports 25% −$14
crypto 2% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +19%
net ROI/market (all)-30.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -74.4% -76.9% 20% 10% -24.3%
≤30d 21 -11.0% -19.5% 24% 19% -9.1%
≤90d 21 -11.0% -19.5% 24% 19% -9.1%
all 26 -23.2% -30.5% 23% 19% -10.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -30.5% 19% -10.2%
10% -37.1% 19% -18.8%
15% -43.2% 15% -26.6%
20% -48.8% 12% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 39% · top 2 70% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -23% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +34% → late -80% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$4 · ×2.96 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.89 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

862d coverage
Net worth$5
Realized−$8
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)23%
Wins / losses6 / 20
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)26 / 27
History coverage862d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day0.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit48%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 26 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 20¢ 19¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 20 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $7 +$3 +48%
Will Tunisia vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 20 $5 −$5 -98%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 3.5 Jun 19 $5 −$5 -98%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 19 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $123 +$10 +8%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $7 −$7 -97%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -97%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 5.5 Jun 15 $1 +$7 +661%
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $10 +$25 +250%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $12 −$11 -88%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 +$21 +403%
Super Bowl: Taylor Swift shown more than 5 times? Feb 12 $1 $0 +28%
Super Bowl LVIII: Will Usher's first song of the Super Bowl LVIII Half Feb 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the San Francisco 49ers win Super Bowl LVIII? Feb 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Super Bowl LVIII: Will the 49ers win by between 3 and 6 points? Feb 11 $0 $0 -100%
Super Bowl LVIII: Will Usher's first song of the Super Bowl LVIII Half Feb 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 20¢ $5 20h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 67¢ $7 22h
Will Tunisia vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes $1 2d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 14¢ $5 3d
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $5 3d
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 34¢ $5 3d
United States vs. Australia: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 48¢ $5 4d
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 79¢ $10 4d
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 15¢ $3 4d
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes $4 6d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 97¢ $100 6d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 91¢ $20 6d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 39¢ $3 6d
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 12¢ $3 6d
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 14¢ $2 7d
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 12¢ $2 7d
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 15¢ $3 7d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 25¢ $2 8d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes $1 8d
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 13¢ $1 8d
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? BUY Yes 19¢ $5 8d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes $4 9d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes $5 9d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes $1 9d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $10 9d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 27¢ $8 9d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 93¢ $26 9d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 18¢ $5 9d
Super Bowl LVIII: Will Usher's first song of the Super Bowl LVIII Half BUY Yes 24¢ $1 862d
Will the San Francisco 49ers win Super Bowl LVIII? BUY Yes 64¢ $1 863d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4.81 · official $4.81 (match) · 38 history records