Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T02:39:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
59 0x59dd…70dc politics 177 markets active 1h ago coverage 159d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$1,615 (-1%) realized −$1,615 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR13%break-even
Win rate21%37W / 138L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,332per market
Trades / day3.0pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$930now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$17
14 days−$30
30 days−$255
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 44% −$131
other 40% −$143
economics 4% −$10
sports 4% −$1,445
world 3% +$79
culture 3% −$7
crypto 1% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +13%
net ROI/market (all)-8.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 43 -3.7% -12.9% 9% 5% -9.8%
≤90d 103 -2.6% -11.9% 6% 2% -10.5%
all 175 +1.4% -8.3% 21% 13% -10.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.3% 13% -10.2%
10% -17.1% 13% -18.8%
15% -25.1% 11% -26.6%
20% -32.4% 9% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
41% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,687) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +6% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$25 vs −$19 · ×1.34 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.36 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

159d coverage
Net worth$930
Realized−$1,615
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)21%
Wins / losses37 / 138
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions2
Markets (closed)175 / 177
History coverage159d
Avg bet$1,332
Trades / day3.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 175 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $692 $692 −$0 (-0%)
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $238 $238 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 17 $755 −$1 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 17 $2,178 −$3 -0%
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 15 $852 −$1 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 15 $964 −$1 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 15 $2,331 −$3 -0%
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 13 $847 −$1 -0%
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 13 $2,244 −$3 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 11 $1,745 −$3 -0%
Will Amir Ohana be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 10 $2,282 −$2 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 09 $1,563 −$2 -0%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 09 $1,040 −$1 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 08 $860 −$1 -0%
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 08 $1,006 −$1 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 08 $3,413 −$6 -0%
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30, 2026? Jun 07 $971 −$1 -0%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $65 −$65 -100%
Spread: Spurs (-2.5) Jun 04 $53 +$70 +134%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 04 $2,521 −$3 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 03 $1,366 −$2 -0%
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 03 $1,956 −$2 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 02 $7,025 −$8 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 02 $1,006 −$1 -0%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 02 $68 −$68 -100%
Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in May? Jun 02 $148 +$1 +1%
Will Solana dip to $60 in May? Jun 02 $407 $0 +0%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 01 $3,272 −$4 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 01 $663 −$1 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 31 $2,841 −$4 -0%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 28 $3,526 −$5 -0%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 27 $1,948 −$2 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 26 $4,331 −$6 -0%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? May 26 $2,696 −$4 -0%
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? May 25 $1,186 −$2 -0%
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? May 25 $1,126 −$2 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? May 25 $3,580 −$5 -0%
Will SS Lazio win on 2026-05-24? May 25 $79 −$79 -100%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 23 $949 −$1 -0%
Will Gideon Sa’ar be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 23 $990 −$1 -0%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 23 $54 +$59 +109%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 22 $1,154 −$2 -0%
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 22 $990 −$2 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 21 $3,967 −$4 -0%
Spread: Thunder (-6.5) May 21 $79 −$79 -100%
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 19 $2,800 −$4 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? May 18 $1,487 −$2 -0%
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? May 18 $1,487 −$2 -0%
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 18 $2,944 −$4 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 17 $3,806 −$4 -0%
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 17 $1,463 −$2 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 17 $1,481 −$2 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $692 1h
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $753 19h
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $755 21h
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $876 24h
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $877 25h
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $851 2d
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $852 2d
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $963 2d
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $964 2d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $749 2d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $751 3d
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $846 4d
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $847 4d
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $817 4d
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $818 4d
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June? BUY No 100¢ $238 6d
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $833 6d
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $835 7d
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $909 7d
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $910 7d
Will Amir Ohana be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $809 7d
Will Amir Ohana be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $810 7d
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $241 8d
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $1,038 8d
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $241 8d
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1,040 9d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $859 9d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $860 9d
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $1,005 9d
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $1,006 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $930.17 · official $930.17 (match) · 604 history records