Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T17:42:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
59 0x59e2…1c55 sports 357 markets active 1h ago coverage 54d
BOTnot copyable sports specialist⚠ High turnoverP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (50 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$1,313 (+2%) realized +$1,488 · open −$175
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -34% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -49% what you keep after slip
Net edge-49%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate36%127W / 229L
Whale WR56%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$198per market
Trades / day50.5pace
Fees−$1,003est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 54d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$14,527
other 0% +$198
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (50 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-40.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 36 -40.9% -46.5% 28% 28% -31.1%
≤30d 170 -36.8% -42.9% 35% 31% -30.8%
≤90d 356 -33.7% -40.0% 36% 31% -33.3%
all 356 -33.7% -40.0% 36% 31% -33.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover50.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -40.0% 31% -33.3%
10% ← realistic here -45.7% 26% -39.7%
15% -51.0% 19% -45.5%
20% -55.8% 14% -50.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -28% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
13% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -34% · $-wt -28% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 56% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -31% → late -36% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
5.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$73 vs −$102 · ×0.71 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.4 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

54d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$1,488
Unrealized−$175
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses127 / 229
Whale WR (big bets)56%
Est. fees paid−$1,003
Open positions1
Markets (closed)356 / 357
History coverage54d
Avg bet$198
Trades / day50.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 356 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner FURIA 40¢ 0¢ $175 $0 −$175 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 167 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 21 $896 +$433 +48%
UFC Fight Night: Allan Nascimento vs. Mitch Raposo (Flyweight, Prelims Jun 20 $95 −$30 -32%
UFC Fight Night: Gaston Bolaños vs. Michael Aswell (Featherweight, Pre Jun 20 $306 −$251 -82%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $102 +$198 +194%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $84 −$84 -100%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 20 $329 −$248 -75%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 20 $816 −$404 -50%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner Jun 20 $169 −$19 -11%
Dota 2: Zero Tenacity vs summer bear - Game 2 Winner Jun 20 $111 −$1 -1%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 1 Winner Jun 20 $147 −$13 -9%
Dota 2: REKONIX vs Grind Back (BO3) - The International Southeast Asia Jun 20 $576 +$279 +48%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime - Game 1 Winner Jun 19 $173 −$38 -22%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $376 −$175 -47%
Dota 2: Spirit Academy vs Hive (BO3) - European Pro League Playoffs Jun 19 $186 −$141 -76%
Dota 2: Spirit Academy vs Hive - Game 2 Winner Jun 19 $307 +$187 +61%
Dota 2: Yangon Galacticos vs InterActive Philippines (BO3) - The Inter Jun 19 $109 −$109 -100%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime - Game 1 Winner Jun 19 $237 +$59 +25%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 18 $149 +$151 +101%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 18 $78 −$20 -25%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 18 $44 −$1 -3%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner Jun 18 $734 −$313 -43%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 18 $28 −$1 -2%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China Jun 18 $168 −$111 -66%
Dota 2: Flame Team vs 4ikibamboni (BO3) - European Pro League Group B Jun 17 $296 −$202 -68%
Dota 2: PlayTime vs Estar Backs - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $23 +$7 +32%
Dota 2: Flame Team vs Spirit Academy - Game 2 Winner Jun 16 $20 −$13 -66%
Dota 2: Game Master vs Grey Trac - Game 1 Winner Jun 16 $47 −$14 -29%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $590 −$490 -83%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $14 −$8 -61%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $90 +$60 +68%
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $188 +$42 +23%
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai Jun 15 $51 +$14 +28%
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car Jun 15 $110 −$110 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $73 −$21 -29%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $90 −$47 -52%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $25 −$25 -98%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $19 +$24 +122%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $30 −$29 -98%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $56 +$44 +79%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $112 −$31 -28%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $156 −$8 -5%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $279 −$182 -65%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $74 −$74 -100%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $481 −$11 -2%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $85 +$165 +194%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $404 −$127 -32%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $74 −$74 -100%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $239 −$56 -23%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $549 −$243 -44%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $96 −$65 -68%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner SELL Team Falcons 100¢ $165 42m
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Falcons 84¢ $139 56m
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY FURIA 28¢ $24 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY FURIA 41¢ $17 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY FURIA 41¢ $4 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY FURIA 41¢ $7 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY FURIA 41¢ $13 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY FURIA 44¢ $110 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner SELL Team Falcons 100¢ $1,329 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Team Falcons 80¢ $8 2h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Team Falcons 80¢ $40 2h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Team Falcons 80¢ $2 2h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Team Falcons 80¢ $7 2h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Team Falcons 80¢ $13 2h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Team Falcons 80¢ $5 2h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Team Falcons 80¢ $57 2h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Team Falcons 59¢ $212 2h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Team Falcons 61¢ $18 2h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Team Falcons 61¢ $3 2h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Team Falcons 61¢ $8 2h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Team Falcons 61¢ $2 2h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Team Falcons 61¢ $31 2h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Team Falcons 61¢ $3 2h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Team Falcons 61¢ $3 2h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Team Falcons 61¢ $55 2h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Team Falcons 61¢ $92 2h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Team Falcons 61¢ $2 2h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Team Falcons 61¢ $1 2h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Team Falcons 61¢ $2 2h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Team Falcons 70¢ $70 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.22 · official $0.22 (match) · 2812 history records