Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T17:53:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
59 0x59e2…4b66 crypto 633 markets active 0h ago coverage 52d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 52d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (58 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$2,183 (+8%) realized +$2,187 · open −$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate50%318W / 314L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$45per market
Trades / day57.7pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$2now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$995
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (58 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-17.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 408 -14.8% -22.9% 37% 33% -20.9%
≤30d 495 -12.7% -21.0% 37% 31% -18.4%
≤90d 632 -8.9% -17.5% 50% 27% -13.4%
all 632 -8.9% -17.5% 50% 27% -13.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover57.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -17.5% 27% -13.4%
10% ← realistic here -25.4% 23% -21.7%
15% -32.6% 19% -29.3%
20% -39.2% 17% -36.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
45% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -16% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$13 · ×0.68 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.69 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

52d coverage
Net worth$2
Realized+$2,187
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses318 / 314
Open positions2
Markets (closed)632 / 633
History coverage52d ⚠
Avg bet$45
Trades / day57.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 632 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Up 41¢ 44¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+9%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Down 42¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 161 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 16 $254 −$254 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 16 $10 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 16 $13 +$17 +133%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 16 $2 +$3 +129%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 16 $7 −$7 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 16 $4 +$1 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$5 +119%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 16 $6 −$6 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 16 $12 +$13 +113%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 16 $20 −$19 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$15 +287%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 16 $11 −$11 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 16 $6 +$9 +143%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 16 $19 −$18 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 16 $19 +$6 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 16 $11 −$1 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 16 $29 −$19 -65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 16 $27 −$12 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 16 $18 −$17 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 16 $18 +$12 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 16 $15 −$10 -66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 16 $9 −$9 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 16 $28 +$7 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 16 $32 +$23 +72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 16 $35 +$30 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 16 $4 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 16 $11 −$1 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 16 $7 −$2 -31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 16 $16 −$6 -39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 16 $7 −$6 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 16 $30 −$10 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 16 $13 +$32 +237%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 16 $15 −$14 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 16 $15 +$25 +172%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 16 $15 +$15 +101%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $2 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $2 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $2 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $2 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $3 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 19¢ $1 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $3 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $2 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 22¢ $1 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Down 19¢ $1 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Down 18¢ $1 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $2 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $3 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $3 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $3 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $2 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $2 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $2 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Down 36¢ $2 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Down 36¢ $2 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 15¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 15¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Down 38¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Down 43¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Down 29¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Down 29¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $2 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2.23 · official $2.98 (match) · 3500 history records