Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T12:57:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0

score

59 0x59e4…dd9e crypto 22 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d

BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ bot/MM pace (78 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL +$91 (+18%) realized +$99 · open −$8

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +15% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip

Net edge-12%after slip

Net WR67%break-even

Win rate81%17W / 4L

Drawdown14%max

Avg bet$24per market

Trades / day78.0pace

Kalshi-fit100%portable

Net worth$42now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

uncopyable — bot pace (78 trades/day)

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +67%

net ROI/market (all)+4.0%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	21	+14.9%	+4.0%	81%	67%	+14.0%
≤30d	21	+14.9%	+4.0%	81%	67%	+14.0%
≤90d	21	+14.9%	+4.0%	81%	67%	+14.0%
all	21	+14.9%	+4.0%	81%	67%	+14.0%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover78.0 tr/day

realistic slip~13%

edge survives to5%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal	+4.0%	67%	+14.0%
10% ← realistic here	-6.0%	57%	+3.1%
15%	-15.1%	52%	-6.9%
20%	-23.4%	38%	-16.0%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 18% · top 2 31% broad-based profit

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +26% fresh edge ✓

Fragile wins

18% wins margin < slip solid win margins

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +15% · $-wt +26% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early +21% → late +10% edge persists early→late

Add-ons / DCA

2.7 add-ons/market adds to positions

Win / loss size

+$8 vs −$5 · ×1.45 wins ≈ losses

Profit factor

×6.18 per $1 lost it wins $6.18

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage

Net worth$42

Realized+$99

Unrealized−$8

Win rate (resolved)81%

Wins / losses17 / 4

Open positions1

Markets (closed)21 / 22

History coverage1d

Avg bet$24

Trades / day78.0

Drawdown14%

Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 21 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET	Up	60¢	50¢	$50	$42	−$8 (-16%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET	Jun 22	$26	+$17	+66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET	Jun 22	$25	+$1	+5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET	Jun 22	$51	+$11	+21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET	Jun 22	$51	+$16	+31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET	Jun 22	$66	+$8	+12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET	Jun 22	$15	−$15	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET	Jun 22	$41	+$24	+58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET	Jun 22	$15	+$8	+51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET	Jun 22	$40	+$4	+9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET	Jun 22	$1	−$1	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET	Jun 22	$31	+$16	+53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET	Jun 22	$20	+$8	+42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET	Jun 22	$15	+$7	+44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET	Jun 22	$9	+$6	+70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET	Jun 22	$7	+$3	+36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET	Jun 22	$1	−$1	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET	Jun 22	$4	−$4	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET	Jun 22	$4	+$4	+86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET	Jun 22	$1	+$1	+51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET	Jun 22	$2	+$2	+75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET	Jun 22	$5	$0	+5%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET	SELL Down	99¢	$50	47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET	BUY Down	76¢	$25	50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET	BUY Up	60¢	$26	51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET	BUY Up	60¢	$26	51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET	BUY Down	58¢	$5	52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET	BUY Down	58¢	$5	52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET	SELL Down	93¢	$43	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET	BUY Down	54¢	$26	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET	SELL Up	80¢	$27	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET	BUY Up	74¢	$25	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET	SELL Up	99¢	$61	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET	BUY Up	81¢	$25	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET	BUY Up	81¢	$25	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET	BUY Down	80¢	$25	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET	BUY Down	71¢	$26	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET	SELL Down	99¢	$66	3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET	SELL Up	37¢	$8	3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET	BUY Up	63¢	$5	3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET	BUY Up	68¢	$5	3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET	BUY Up	68¢	$5	3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET	BUY Down	75¢	$25	3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET	BUY Down	75¢	$25	3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET	SELL Up	100¢	$65	3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET	BUY Up	62¢	$5	3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET	BUY Up	64¢	$5	3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET	BUY Up	66¢	$5	3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET	BUY Up	60¢	$26	3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET	BUY Up	55¢	$5	3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET	BUY Up	55¢	$5	3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET	BUY Up	55¢	$5	3h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $42.08 · official $42.08 (match) · 83 history records