Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T11:15:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
59 0x59e4…50c1 world 27 markets active 4d ago coverage 465d
TRAPdo not copy world specialistFading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized +$0 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate56%15W / 12L
Drawdown92%max
Avg bet$29per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$3
14 days+$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 85% $0
other 8% $0
politics 4% +$1
sports 3% $0
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-9.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -2.9% -12.1% 33% 0% -10.2%
≤30d 16 -0.3% -9.8% 38% 6% -9.6%
≤90d 16 -0.3% -9.8% 38% 6% -9.6%
all 27 +0.2% -9.3% 56% 4% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.3% 4% -9.5%
10% -18.0% 0% -18.1%
15% -25.9% 0% -26.1%
20% -33.2% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 41% · top 2 64% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
93% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.5 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.07 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

465d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$0
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses15 / 12
Open positions0
Markets (closed)27 / 27
History coverage465d
Avg bet$29
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown92%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 27 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 16 $47 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 15 $114 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $131 −$1 -1%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 14 $12 −$1 -12%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $7 $0 -5%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 13 $51 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $44 +$1 +3%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 11 $39 $0 +1%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 10 $17 +$2 +12%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 10 $11 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 09 $39 $0 -0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Jun 07 $2 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 06 $47 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 04 $44 −$1 -2%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 03 $43 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 03 $13 $0 +0%
Will Gregory Rusland be the next president of Suriname after the elect Dec 14 $1 $0 +1%
Will the Liberal Party win the Canadian election by 9-12%? Jun 24 $14 $0 +4%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $93000 and $95000 on May 9? May 10 $2 $0 +1%
Will Matteo Zuppi be the next pope? Apr 24 $13 $0 +0%
Will the LA Clippers win the 2025 NBA Finals? Apr 24 $15 $0 -3%
Will the Minnesota Wild win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Apr 03 $15 $0 +0%
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 26 $12 $0 +0%
March Madness: Will 0 teams seeded #1 make the Final 4? Mar 25 $3 $0 +3%
Will Elon tweet 600-624 times March 21-28? Mar 24 $16 $0 -1%
Will Trump issue an executive order on March 19? Mar 22 $15 $0 +1%
Will the Milwaukee Bucks win the Eastern Conference? Mar 20 $14 $0 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $47 4d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $47 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 59¢ $36 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 59¢ $36 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $25 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $18 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $43 5d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes $2 5d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes $3 5d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes $2 5d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes $2 5d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes $11 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 15¢ $4 6d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 17¢ $4 6d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes $1 6d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes $2 6d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY Yes $2 6d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $49 6d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $49 6d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes $2 7d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes $1 7d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $39 7d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $5 7d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $44 7d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 80¢ $30 7d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 80¢ $15 7d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 78¢ $44 7d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 91¢ $3 7d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 91¢ $28 7d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 91¢ $12 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 98 history records