Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T03:41:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

59
0x59e5…7a2b
sports · 315 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$107,824 -7%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$108,288 · open +$946
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$70,445
Realized−$108,288
Unrealized+$946
Win rate (resolved)74%
Wins / losses212 / 76
Whale WR (big bets)67%
Est. fees paid−$7,450
Open positions44
Markets (closed)288 / 315
History coverage77d
Avg bet$4,781
Trades / day40.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%
Chart Positions 44 History 288 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$9,679
7 days−$14,787
14 days−$35,437
30 days−$31,046
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Yes 99¢ 100¢ $15,311 $15,505 +$194 (+1%)
Knicks vs. Spurs Knicks 36¢ 36¢ $10,548 $10,496 −$52 (-0%)
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Bilibili Gaming 90¢ 90¢ $9,450 $9,502 +$52 (+1%)
Will France advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 97¢ 97¢ $5,737 $5,749 +$12 (+0%)
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? No 92¢ 100¢ $4,600 $4,998 +$398 (+9%)
Will Cameron Boozer be the first pick in the 2026 NBA draft? No 94¢ 94¢ $3,917 $3,952 +$35 (+1%)
Will Lionel Messi play in the World Cup? Yes 97¢ 99¢ $3,833 $3,906 +$74 (+2%)
Tesla and xAI merger officially announced by June 30? No 96¢ 99¢ $3,609 $3,737 +$128 (+4%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 98¢ 98¢ $2,943 $2,938 −$4 (-0%)
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by June 30? No 97¢ 97¢ $2,460 $2,475 +$15 (+1%)
Will Fannie Mae not IPO by June 30, 2026? Yes 95¢ 99¢ $1,824 $1,888 +$64 (+4%)
Will Haiti advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 89¢ 86¢ $1,780 $1,730 −$50 (-3%)
Will Xavier Becerra finish first in the 2026 California Governor primary election? Yes 83¢ 99¢ $830 $990 +$160 (+19%)
Will Freddie Mac not IPO by June 30, 2026? Yes 93¢ 99¢ $681 $724 +$43 (+6%)
Will Mexico advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 89¢ 98¢ $550 $611 +$61 (+11%)
Will Brazil advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 97¢ 98¢ $335 $338 +$3 (+1%)
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31? No 67¢ 64¢ $314 $297 −$17 (-5%)
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? No 88¢ 94¢ $100 $106 +$6 (+6%)
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? No 90¢ 90¢ $90 $90 −$0 (-1%)
Will Jia Yueting enter mainland China by June 30? No 99¢ 99¢ $63 $63 +$0 (+0%)
Will Ecuador advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 86¢ 88¢ $61 $62 +$1 (+2%)
Will Marisol Pérez Tello win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? No 100¢ 100¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+0%)
Will Alfonso López Chau win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? No 98¢ 100¢ $49 $50 +$1 (+2%)
Will Iran advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 43¢ 38¢ $43 $38 −$5 (-11%)
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? No 64¢ 19¢ $101 $30 −$71 (-70%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $16,200 +$3,800 +24%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $1,408 +$445 +32%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.2T? Jun 12 $2,792 +$83 +3%
SpaceX goes public through Bill Ackman "SPAR" company? Jun 12 $34 +$6 +16%
Will SpaceX or OpenAI IPO first? Jun 12 $341 +$4 +1%
Will SpaceX IPO by September 30, 2026? Jun 12 $190 +$5 +3%
Will SpaceX's public ticker be another ticker? Jun 12 $13,343 +$479 +4%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 12 $7,274 +$2,430 +33%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 12 $69 −$69 -100%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $5,043 +$1,950 +39%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 12 $7,929 −$2,742 -35%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $3,250 +$350 +11%
Will Adobe (ADBE) beat quarterly earnings? Jun 11 $13 +$1 +5%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming Junior vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO3) - Asia Mas Jun 11 $1,554 +$154 +10%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 212.5 Jun 11 $675 +$225 +33%
Spread: Spurs (-15.5) Jun 11 $1,960 +$2,039 +104%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 209.5 Jun 11 $971 +$29 +3%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 210.5 Jun 11 $5,518 +$490 +9%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 216.5 Jun 11 $906 −$906 -100%
Spurs vs. Knicks: 1H O/U 99.5 Jun 11 $14 $0 +1%
Spurs vs. Knicks: 1H O/U 111.5 Jun 11 $85 +$1 +1%
Spurs vs. Knicks: 1H O/U 105.5 Jun 11 $168 +$2 +1%
Spurs vs. Knicks: 1H O/U 108.5 Jun 11 $168 +$2 +1%
Spurs vs. Knicks: 1H O/U 102.5 Jun 11 $180 +$2 +1%
1H Spread: Knicks (-0.5) Jun 11 $198 +$2 +1%
Spurs vs. Knicks: 1H Moneyline Jun 11 $951 +$51 +5%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 213.5 Jun 11 $4,570 −$4,570 -100%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 214.5 Jun 11 $2,732 −$2,730 -100%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 215.5 Jun 11 $1,780 −$1,780 -100%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $11,462 −$11,445 -100%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 10? Jun 10 $6,381 +$130 +2%
Will Oracle (ORCL) beat quarterly earnings? Jun 10 $921 +$79 +9%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 10 $100 $0 +0%
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Saigon Dino - Game 2 Winner Jun 10 $661 −$78 -12%
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Saigon Dino - Game 1 Winner Jun 10 $738 −$107 -15%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 10 $2,216 +$22 +1%
LoL: FENNEL vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO3) - Asia Masters Group B Jun 10 $1,940 +$60 +3%
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Saigon Dino (BO3) - Asia Masters Group C Jun 10 $194 −$194 -100%
LoL: EDward Gaming Youth Team vs CTBC Flying Oyster Academy (BO3) - As Jun 10 $510 −$510 -100%
Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 10 $498 +$2 +0%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs Top Esports Challenger - Game 1 Winner Jun 09 $405 +$95 +24%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs Top Esports Challenger (BO3) - Asia Mast Jun 09 $2,260 +$240 +11%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 216.5 Jun 09 $772 +$86 +11%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $39,062 +$6,738 +17%
Will President Trump attend the NBA Finals? Jun 09 $17,657 +$1,000 +6%
Game Handicap: BLG (-2.5) vs Anyone's Legend (+2.5) Jun 08 $2,733 −$2,719 -100%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 08 $759 −$759 -100%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 07 $178 +$72 +41%
LoL: Top Esports vs Team WE - Game 2 Winner Jun 07 $3,089 +$11 +0%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 07 $5,241 −$5,241 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 78% −$117,421
other 13% +$7,318
finance 4% +$2,140
world 2% +$751
tech 2% +$706
politics 1% −$797
weather 0% +$25
economics 0% +$19
crypto 0% −$83
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 96¢ $12 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 99¢ $5,431 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 99¢ $9,874 1h
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY Bilibili Gaming 90¢ $7,512 1h
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 81¢ $2,281 2h
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 81¢ $9,869 2h
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 81¢ $2,867 2h
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 81¢ $5 2h
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 81¢ $3 2h
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 81¢ $426 2h
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 81¢ $6 2h
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY Bilibili Gaming 90¢ $9 2h
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 81¢ $4 2h
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 81¢ $81 2h
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 81¢ $11 2h
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 81¢ $569 2h
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 81¢ $78 2h
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY Bilibili Gaming 90¢ $396 2h
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY Bilibili Gaming 90¢ $217 2h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 92¢ $2,760 2h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 92¢ $1,818 2h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 92¢ $22 2h
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY Bilibili Gaming 90¢ $866 2h
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY Bilibili Gaming 90¢ $259 2h
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY Bilibili Gaming 90¢ $9 2h
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY Bilibili Gaming 90¢ $90 2h
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY Bilibili Gaming 90¢ $9 2h
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY Bilibili Gaming 90¢ $14 2h
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY Bilibili Gaming 90¢ $28 2h
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY Bilibili Gaming 90¢ $42 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)-14.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 55 -15.9% -23.9% 67% 25% -15.1%
≤30d 120 -13.5% -21.7% 71% 24% -14.3%
≤90d 288 -5.7% -14.7% 74% 22% -16.1%
all 288 -5.7% -14.7% 74% 22% -16.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover40.3 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -14.7% 22% -16.1%
10% -22.9% 15% -24.1%
15% ← realistic here -30.3% 10% -31.4%
20% -37.1% 7% -38.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $70,444.79 · official $70,444.79 (match) · 3500 history records