Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T21:19:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
59 0x59e8…b8f7 crypto 1068 markets active 2h ago coverage 202d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 201d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$2,392 (-3%) realized −$2,410 · open +$18
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -28% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -40% what you keep after slip
Net edge-40%after slip
Net WR17%break-even
Win rate60%861W / 583L
Whale WR74%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$73per market
Trades / day13.5pace
Fees−$21est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$128now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 202d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 62% −$281
crypto 34% +$1,044
other 2% +$7
tech 2% +$34
world 0% +$12
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +17%
net ROI/market (all)-35.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 437 -87.3% -88.5% 10% 7% -47.7%
≤30d 476 -79.7% -81.6% 15% 10% -31.0%
≤90d 478 -79.3% -81.2% 16% 10% -30.5%
all 1444 -28.5% -35.3% 60% 17% -14.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -35.3% 17% -14.1%
10% -41.5% 11% -22.3%
15% -47.2% 9% -29.8%
20% -52.4% 8% -36.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -26% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
71% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -29% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 74% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -4% → late -53% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$28 · ×0.49 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.72 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

202d coverage
Net worth$128
Realized−$2,410
Unrealized+$18
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses861 / 583
Whale WR (big bets)74%
Est. fees paid−$21
Open positions5
Markets (closed)1444 / 1068
History coverage202d ⚠
Avg bet$73
Trades / day13.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 1444 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 15¢ $20 $33 +$13 (+65%)
Will Spain win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 79¢ 86¢ $30 $33 +$3 (+9%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 19¢ $20 $24 +$4 (+20%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $20 $22 +$2 (+8%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 14¢ $20 $16 −$4 (-19%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 495 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 5, 11AM ET Jun 23 $19 −$19 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 26, 4PM ET Jun 23 $7 −$7 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - September 9, 4AM ET Jun 23 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - September 10, 6PM ET Jun 23 $32 −$32 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - August 4, 7AM ET Jun 23 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 1, 1PM ET Jun 23 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 8, 3PM ET Jun 23 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 3, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 23 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 2, 10PM ET Jun 23 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - August 1, 6AM ET Jun 23 $8 −$8 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - September 6, 2PM ET Jun 23 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - August 29, 10PM ET Jun 23 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - August 4, 10PM ET Jun 23 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 17, 3PM ET Jun 23 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 28, 6PM ET Jun 23 $17 −$17 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 3, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 23 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 22, 5PM ET Jun 23 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 2, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 23 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 30, 11AM ET Jun 23 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 3, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 23 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 24, 3AM ET Jun 23 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 27, 5PM ET Jun 23 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - August 6, 7AM ET Jun 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 3, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 23 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - August 6, 8AM ET Jun 23 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - August 7, 1PM ET Jun 23 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 3, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 23 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 24, 5PM ET Jun 23 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 16, 10PM ET Jun 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 11, 11AM ET Jun 23 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 4, 9PM ET Jun 23 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 3, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 30, 5AM ET Jun 23 $33 −$33 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - September 8, 6PM ET Jun 23 $22 −$22 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 2, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - August 29, 5AM ET Jun 23 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - August 28, 11AM ET Jun 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 16, 4PM ET Jun 23 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 1, 10AM ET Jun 23 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - August 28, 6PM ET Jun 23 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - August 3, 5AM ET Jun 23 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 2, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 23 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - August 1, 9AM ET Jun 23 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - August 5, 12AM ET Jun 23 $42 −$42 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 20, 8PM ET Jun 23 $7 −$7 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - September 11, 8PM ET Jun 23 $36 −$36 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 8, 6AM ET Jun 23 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 2, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 23 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 27, 4AM ET Jun 23 $8 −$8 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - September 11, 6AM ET Jun 23 $8 −$8 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET SELL Down 93¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET SELL Down 93¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET SELL Down 93¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET SELL Down 93¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET SELL Down 93¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET SELL Down 93¢ $15 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET SELL Down 93¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET SELL Down 93¢ $54 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET SELL Down 93¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 82¢ $101 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET SELL Down 91¢ $55 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET SELL Down 91¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET SELL Down 91¢ $15 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET SELL Down 91¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET SELL Down 91¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET SELL Down 91¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET SELL Down 91¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Down 80¢ $101 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET SELL Down 95¢ $114 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Down 83¢ $101 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET SELL Up 98¢ $110 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $101 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $50 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $59 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $130 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $2 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $127.64 · official $127.64 (match) · 3500 history records