Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T16:45:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

59
0x59ef…5f26
sports · 33 markets active 1h ago
4.5score
+$176 +16%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$170 · open −$13
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
Net worth$227
Realized+$170
Unrealized−$13
Win rate (resolved)77%
Wins / losses20 / 6
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions7
Markets (closed)26 / 33
History coverage165d
Avg bet$33
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown92%
Kalshi-fit85%
Chart Positions 7 History 26 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$279
14 days+$279
30 days+$276
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Exact Score: Sweden 1 - 0 Tunisia? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $50 $48 −$2 (-3%)
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 Under 35¢ 34¢ $40 $39 −$1 (-1%)
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Yes 34¢ 34¢ $40 $39 −$1 (-1%)
Exact Score: Sweden 1 - 1 Tunisia? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $30 $27 −$3 (-9%)
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 1 Japan? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $30 $27 −$3 (-9%)
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 0 Japan? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $30 $26 −$4 (-14%)
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 0 Japan? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-4%)
LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs BNK FEARX (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 BNK FEARX 52¢ $103 $0 −$103 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Down $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
HSBC Championships: Qinwen Zheng vs Jaqueline Cristian Qinwen Zheng 78¢ $46 $0 −$46 (-100%)
Knicks vs. 76ers 76ers 48¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
LoL: LOUD vs LOS (BO3) - Esports World Cup South America & LATAM Quali Jun 12 $51 +$49 +96%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $101 +$55 +55%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $101 +$64 +63%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $71 +$84 +119%
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Seattle Storm Jun 11 $78 +$28 +36%
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 10 $85 +$11 +13%
Ilkley: Emerson Jones vs Dalma Galfi Jun 10 $61 +$25 +42%
HSBC Championships: Sorana Cirstea vs Maddison Inglis Jun 10 $50 +$9 +18%
HSBC Championships: Qinwen Zheng vs Jaqueline Cristian Jun 08 $46 −$46 -99%
Counter-Strike: Ground Zero vs MARKandLARRY (BO3) - Dfrag Open Series Jun 08 $47 −$1 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET May 27 $5 +$3 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET May 27 $11 −$10 -95%
Spurs vs. Timberwolves May 27 $2 +$4 +172%
Knicks vs. 76ers May 10 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET May 10 $2 −$2 -100%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by May 31st? May 10 $2 +$1 +47%
LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs BNK FEARX (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 Apr 14 $105 −$103 -99%
Hersonissos 2: Pavlos Tsitsipas vs Paul Jubb Apr 14 $2 $0 +5%
Will XRP dip to $0.40 in March? Apr 14 $4 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 215-239 tweets from March 9 to March 11, 2026? Apr 14 $4 $0 +0%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Team WE (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Mar 09 $2 $0 +12%
Will XRP reach $2.00 in February? Mar 09 $2 $0 +1%
Ilhan Omar town hall attack staged? Mar 09 $7 $0 +0%
Will Trump meet with Volodymyr Zelenskyy in January 2026? Feb 23 $1 $0 +4%
No change in Bank of Japan's interest rates after January 2026 meeting Feb 23 $2 $0 +1%
Will no US x Venezuela military engagement occur in 2025? Jan 22 $1 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 81% +$177
crypto 10% −$17
other 9% −$4
world 0% +$1
economics 0% $0
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? BUY Yes 34¢ $41 1h
Exact Score: Sweden 1 - 1 Tunisia? BUY Yes 16¢ $31 1h
Exact Score: Sweden 1 - 0 Tunisia? BUY Yes 16¢ $51 1h
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 0 Japan? BUY Yes 11¢ $31 1h
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 1 Japan? BUY Yes 16¢ $31 1h
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 0 Japan? BUY Yes 12¢ $21 1h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 35¢ $41 1h
LoL: LOUD vs LOS (BO3) - Esports World Cup South America & LATAM Quali BUY LOS 50¢ $51 2d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Spirit 64¢ $101 3d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Team Falcons 61¢ $101 3d
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY 9z 45¢ $71 3d
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Seattle Storm BUY Los Angeles Sparks 73¢ $78 3d
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians BUY New York Yankees 88¢ $85 3d
Ilkley: Emerson Jones vs Dalma Galfi BUY Dalma Galfi 70¢ $61 4d
HSBC Championships: Sorana Cirstea vs Maddison Inglis BUY Sorana Cirstea 84¢ $50 5d
HSBC Championships: Qinwen Zheng vs Jaqueline Cristian BUY Qinwen Zheng 78¢ $46 6d
Counter-Strike: Ground Zero vs MARKandLARRY (BO3) - Dfrag Open Series BUY MARKandLARRY 50¢ $47 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET SELL Down 77¢ $8 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $5 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Down $5 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Down 37¢ $5 18d
Spurs vs. Timberwolves BUY Timberwolves 36¢ $2 35d
Knicks vs. 76ers BUY 76ers 48¢ $2 35d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $2 35d
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by May 31st? BUY Yes 68¢ $2 61d
LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs BNK FEARX (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 BUY BNK FEARX 52¢ $105 61d
Will Elon Musk post 215-239 tweets from March 9 to March 11, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $4 97d
Hersonissos 2: Pavlos Tsitsipas vs Paul Jubb BUY Paul Jubb 95¢ $2 97d
Will XRP dip to $0.40 in March? BUY No 100¢ $4 97d
Will XRP reach $2.00 in February? BUY No 99¢ $2 111d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-0.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +34.0% +21.3% 80% 80% +27.1%
≤30d 13 +36.5% +23.5% 77% 77% +25.8%
≤90d 20 +11.4% +0.8% 70% 55% +9.0%
all 26 +9.5% -0.9% 77% 46% +8.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -0.9% 46% +8.7%
10% -10.4% 35% -1.7%
15% -19.1% 35% -11.2%
20% -27.0% 23% -19.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $226.72 · official $224.94 (match) · 56 history records