Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T20:15:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
59 0x59ff…c0d1 crypto 22 markets active 0h ago coverage 6d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$121 (-22%) realized −$104 · open −$17
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +66% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +44% what you keep after slip
Net edge+44%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate42%8W / 11L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$25per market
Trades / day5.7pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$54now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 39% −$16
other 34% −$100
sports 27% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)+49.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 +65.5% +49.7% 42% 37% -31.9%
≤30d 19 +65.5% +49.7% 42% 37% -31.9%
≤90d 19 +65.5% +49.7% 42% 37% -31.9%
all 19 +65.5% +49.7% 42% 37% -31.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +49.7% 37% -31.9%
10% +35.4% 26% -38.5%
15% +22.3% 21% -44.4%
20% +10.3% 16% -49.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 55% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -23% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +65% · $-wt -23% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -72% → late +189% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$17 · ×0.64 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.47 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$54
Realized−$104
Unrealized−$17
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses8 / 11
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions3
Markets (closed)19 / 22
History coverage6d
Avg bet$25
Trades / day5.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 19 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ 8¢ $50 $34 −$16 (-31%)
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Yes 48¢ 46¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-3%)
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Yes 39¢ 36¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $15 +$11 +74%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $15 −$7 -45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 17 $52 −$25 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 17 $26 +$18 +69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 17 $26 +$11 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 17 $10 +$2 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 17 $10 +$9 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 17 $25 +$3 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 17 $25 +$1 +5%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $23 −$23 -98%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 3 Switzerland? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $101 +$29 +29%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $51 −$41 -80%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 39¢ $10 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $10 22h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 100¢ $26 22h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? SELL Yes 15¢ $8 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET SELL Down 23¢ $11 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $26 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $26 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET SELL Down 98¢ $44 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $26 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $37 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Down 67¢ $26 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET SELL Up 47¢ $12 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $10 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET SELL Up 1¢ $0 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $10 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $10 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $28 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Down 87¢ $25 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $26 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $25 30h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 48¢ $10 31h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 57¢ $15 31h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $15 31h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 3.5 BUY Over 43¢ $20 3d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 37¢ $20 3d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 48¢ $15 4d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 12¢ $51 4d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 24¢ $3 4d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 10¢ $2 4d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 48¢ $20 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $53.76 · official $53.19 (match) · 41 history records