Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T01:52:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
5A 0x5a05…99c4 crypto 970 markets active 1h ago coverage 113d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 113d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$7,562 (-8%) realized −$7,562 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -15% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -34% what you keep after slip
Net edge-34%after slip
Net WR26%break-even
Win rate26%256W / 714L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$93per market
Trades / day24.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$613
7 days−$585
14 days−$1,515
30 days−$5,164
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% −$8,358
world 1% −$90
other 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-22.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 85 -25.9% -32.9% 21% 21% -19.3%
≤30d 246 -22.3% -29.7% 24% 24% -34.9%
≤90d 490 -17.6% -25.4% 26% 26% -18.7%
all 970 -14.6% -22.8% 26% 26% -18.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover24.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -22.8% 26% -18.0%
10% ← realistic here -30.2% 25% -25.8%
15% -36.9% 25% -33.0%
20% -43.1% 24% -39.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -15% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -11% → late -18% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$188 vs −$79 · ×2.37 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.85 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

113d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$7,562
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)26%
Wins / losses256 / 714
Open positions0
Markets (closed)970 / 970
History coverage113d ⚠
Avg bet$93
Trades / day24.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 970 Trades
no open positions (20 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 19 $218 +$655 +301%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 19 $120 −$113 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8PM ET Jun 19 $170 −$161 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 19 $146 +$265 +181%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 19 $150 −$143 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 19 $223 −$212 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 19 $105 +$224 +213%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 19 $53 −$50 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 19 $70 −$66 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 19 $105 +$180 +172%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 19 $115 −$110 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 19 $53 −$50 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 19 $159 +$265 +166%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 18 $57 −$54 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7PM ET Jun 18 $190 −$37 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 18 $56 −$53 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 18 $71 +$167 +234%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 18 $95 −$91 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 18 $32 −$30 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 18 $115 −$108 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 18 $82 +$252 +306%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 18 $40 −$38 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 18 $30 −$28 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 17 $30 −$28 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 17 $25 −$23 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 16 $24 −$23 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 16 $30 −$28 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 16 $23 −$23 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 15 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 15 $18 −$18 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 15 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 15 $29 −$29 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 15 $24 −$24 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 15 $22 −$22 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 15 $28 −$28 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 15 $45 −$45 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 15 $83 −$5 -6%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $107 +$22 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 15 $40 +$83 +208%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 13 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 13 $30 +$9 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 13 $21 +$3 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 13 $41 −$41 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 13 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 13 $89 +$99 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 13 $39 −$39 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 13 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 13 $47 −$47 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 13 $63 −$63 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET SELL Down 82¢ $873 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET BUY Down 19¢ $218 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $10 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Down 4¢ $4 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Down 19¢ $106 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $5 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8PM ET BUY Down 9¢ $8 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8PM ET BUY Down 28¢ $32 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8PM ET BUY Down 27¢ $14 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8PM ET BUY Down 20¢ $26 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8PM ET BUY Down 20¢ $53 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8PM ET BUY Down 19¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Up 34¢ $146 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Down 8¢ $9 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Down 18¢ $32 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Down 32¢ $105 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET BUY Down 21¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET BUY Down 20¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET BUY Down 27¢ $210 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $329 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $105 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET BUY Down 6¢ $53 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Up 15¢ $53 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Up 24¢ $17 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET SELL Up 97¢ $285 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Up 34¢ $105 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 6¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 34¢ $105 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 7¢ $27 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records