Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T20:29:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

5A
0x5a05…8064
world · 80 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$14 -1%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$14 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fresh edge
Net worth$31
Realized−$14
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses27 / 52
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)79 / 80
History coverage526d
Avg bet$34
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%
Chart Positions 1 History 79 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days+$2
14 days+$0
30 days−$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? No 93¢ 94¢ $31 $31 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 14 $28 +$1 +3%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 14 $33 $0 -0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $10 +$2 +17%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 13 $2 $0 +0%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $28 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 09 $27 $0 -1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 09 $4 $0 -8%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 06 $52 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 06 $63 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 06 $86 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 05 $28 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 04 $79 −$1 -2%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 04 $46 $0 -1%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 01 $37 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 01 $28 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 31 $65 −$1 -2%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 31 $66 +$1 +1%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 30 $32 $0 +0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? May 30 $60 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 28 $33 −$4 -14%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 25 $60 +$1 +1%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 25 $63 +$1 +2%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 24 $68 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 24 $23 −$1 -5%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 24 $36 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 23 $2 $0 +2%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 21 $1 $0 +6%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 19 $2 $0 +0%
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamen May 18 $58 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 15 $32 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 27 $33 $0 +0%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 26 $7 $0 +0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 26 $31 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 25 $35 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 25 $35 $0 +0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 23 $31 $0 +0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $32 $0 +0%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $32 $0 +0%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Apr 21 $54 +$1 +2%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 20 $68 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 20 $32 $0 -0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 17 $31 $0 -0%
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Apr 17 $34 $0 +0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 16 $33 $0 -0%
Will Richard Van De Water win The Bachelorette Season 22? Apr 15 $34 $0 +0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 15 $40 $0 +0%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 15 $64 $0 +0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 15 $65 $0 +1%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? Apr 14 $31 $0 -0%
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 12 $64 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 43% −$3
other 23% −$4
politics 16% +$1
sports 8% −$6
economics 7% $0
crypto 2% −$3
tech 1% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 93¢ $31 1h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 33¢ $15 8h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 33¢ $14 8h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 32¢ $12 10h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 32¢ $16 10h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes $1 15h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes $1 15h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes $0 17h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes $2 17h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 17¢ $12 27h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 15¢ $3 29h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 15¢ $7 29h
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes $2 41h
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes $2 43h
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $28 3d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $28 3d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? SELL No 77¢ $26 5d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? BUY No 78¢ $5 5d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? BUY No 78¢ $22 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 11¢ $4 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 12¢ $4 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 33¢ $19 7d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 33¢ $6 7d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 34¢ $4 8d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 33¢ $21 8d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 50¢ $16 8d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 50¢ $11 8d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 50¢ $8 8d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 50¢ $19 8d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $26 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-11.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +1.5% -8.2% 43% 14% -8.2%
≤30d 29 -0.0% -9.5% 45% 3% -9.8%
≤90d 77 +0.0% -9.5% 35% 1% -9.7%
all 79 -2.5% -11.8% 34% 1% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.8% 1% -10.0%
10% -20.2% 0% -18.6%
15% -27.9% 0% -26.5%
20% -35.0% 0% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $30.90 · official $30.90 (match) · 308 history records