Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T12:54:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
5A 0x5a05…4c5a sports 967 markets active 1h ago coverage 39d
BOTnot copyable sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 38d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (66 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$9,542 (+7%) realized +$9,530 · open +$12
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate96%923W / 34L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown19%max
Avg bet$151per market
Trades / day66.2pace
Fees−$184est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$1,064now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 39d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 96% +$2,805
other 4% +$419
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (66 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-3.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 87 -0.9% -10.3% 77% 13% -11.8%
≤30d 675 +7.6% -2.7% 96% 5% -7.9%
≤90d 957 +6.3% -3.8% 96% 5% -7.6%
all 957 +6.3% -3.8% 96% 5% -7.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover66.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -3.8% 5% -7.6%
10% ← realistic here -13.0% 3% -16.4%
15% -21.4% 2% -24.5%
20% -29.1% 2% -31.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
94% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +4% → late +9% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$31 · ×0.15 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×4.01 per $1 lost it wins $4.01
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

39d coverage
Net worth$1,064
Realized+$9,530
Unrealized+$12
Win rate (resolved)96%
Wins / losses923 / 34
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Est. fees paid−$184
Open positions10
Markets (closed)957 / 967
History coverage39d ⚠
Avg bet$151
Trades / day66.2
Drawdown19%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 10 History 957 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Valorant: So:sweet vs Dplus - Map 1 Winner Dplus 97¢ 100¢ $194 $200 +$6 (+3%)
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner T1 Academy 99¢ 100¢ $198 $200 +$2 (+1%)
Valorant: So:sweet vs Dplus (BO3) - VCL Korea: Regular Season Dplus 100¢ 100¢ $174 $174 +$0 (+0%)
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Over 99¢ 100¢ $164 $165 +$2 (+1%)
Game Handicap: KT.C (-2.5) vs Dplus KIA Challengers (+2.5) Dplus KIA Challengers 100¢ 100¢ $100 $100 +$0 (+0%)
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner T1 Academy 98¢ 100¢ $91 $92 +$1 (+2%)
Game Handicap: KT.C (-1.5) vs Dplus KIA Challengers (+1.5) Dplus KIA Challengers 99¢ 100¢ $53 $53 +$1 (+1%)
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs Dplus KIA Challengers 99¢ 100¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+1%)
Games Total: O/U 4.5 Under 99¢ 100¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+1%)
Honor of Kings: Weibo Gaming vs eStar Pro - Game 3 Winner Weibo Gaming 99¢ 100¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Honor of Kings: Weibo Gaming vs eStar Pro - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $110 $0 +0%
Valorant: Gen.G Global Academy vs ONSIDE GAMING (BO3) - VCL Korea: Reg Jun 17 $618 +$1 +0%
Honor of Kings: Weibo Gaming vs eStar Pro - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $10 $0 +1%
Valorant: Gen.G Global Academy vs ONSIDE GAMING - Map 1 Winner Jun 17 $495 +$5 +1%
Honor of Kings: Dragon Ranger Gaming vs Talent Gaming (BO5) - King Pro Jun 17 $599 +$1 +0%
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Cloud Rising (BO3) - The International China Cl Jun 17 $99 +$1 +1%
Honor of Kings: Dragon Ranger Gaming vs Talent Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $99 +$1 +1%
Dota 2: InterActive Philippines vs Ivory - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $200 $0 +0%
Game Handicap: PlayTime (-1.5) vs Estar Backs (+1.5) Jun 17 $120 +$2 +2%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $5 $0 +1%
Dota 2: PlayTime vs Estar Backs (BO3) - The International South Americ Jun 17 $309 +$2 +1%
Game 2: Both Teams Destroy Barracks? Jun 17 $5 $0 +1%
Dota 2: PlayTime vs Estar Backs - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $233 +$1 +0%
Game 1: Both Teams Destroy Barracks? Jun 17 $5 $0 +1%
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: Aura Farmers vs Aterion Esports (BO3) - BetB Jun 17 $68 +$1 +1%
Game Handicap: Aterion Esports (-1.5) vs Aura Farmers (+1.5) Jun 17 $25 $0 +1%
Game Handicap: AF (-1.5) vs Aterion Esports (+1.5) Jun 17 $75 $0 +0%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $75 $0 +0%
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: Aura Farmers vs Aterion Esports - Game 2 Win Jun 17 $25 $0 +1%
Rainbow Six Siege: Geekay Esports vs Heretics (BO1) - Europe MENA Leag Jun 16 $215 $0 +0%
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: Aura Farmers vs Aterion Esports - Game 1 Win Jun 16 $213 +$3 +1%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group S Jun 16 $97 +$3 +3%
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: Magic vs Omnix - Game 1 Winner Jun 16 $205 +$1 +1%
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: Magic vs Omnix (BO3) - BetBoom Rise of Legen Jun 16 $10 $0 +1%
Game Handicap: MAG (-1.5) vs Omnix (+1.5) Jun 16 $151 +$2 +1%
Exact Score: France 0 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $100 $0 +0%
Exact Score: France 0 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $100 $0 +0%
Rainbow Six Siege: Falcons Esport vs G2 Esports (BO1) - Europe MENA Le Jun 16 $258 $0 -0%
Exact Score: France 1 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $33 −$3 -8%
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: FORZE Esports vs The Soulless Team (BO3) - B Jun 16 $78 −$1 -2%
Rainbow Six Siege: Rebels Gaming vs Team Secret (BO1) - Europe MENA Le Jun 16 $228 +$2 +1%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play Jun 16 $186 +$14 +8%
Rainbow Six Siege: Virtus.pro vs Twisted Minds (BO1) - Europe MENA Lea Jun 16 $400 $0 +0%
StarCraft II: Gerald vs Solar - Map 1 Winner Jun 16 $117 +$1 +1%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pl Jun 16 $110 +$19 +17%
Map Handicap: trigger (-1.5) vs Gerald (+1.5) Jun 16 $132 +$1 +1%
Rainbow Six Siege: Chiefs Esports Club vs Shaiikademy (BO1) - Asia Pac Jun 16 $200 $0 +0%
Counter-Strike: Clutchain vs LPH Gaming - Map 2 Winner Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Rainbow Six Siege: Fnatic vs Heretics (BO1) - Europe MENA League Stage Jun 15 $990 +$10 +1%
Game Handicap: Omnix (-1.5) vs Team Spirit Academy White (+1.5) Jun 15 $10 $0 +1%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $495 +$5 +1%
Rainbow Six Siege: G2 Esports vs Shifters (BO1) - Europe MENA League S Jun 15 $96 +$1 +1%
Game Handicap: SLY (-2.5) vs Galions (+2.5) Jun 15 $45 $0 +1%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo Jun 15 $297 +$3 +1%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $198 +$2 +1%
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $95 +$5 +5%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $99 +$1 +1%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $54 +$46 +86%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Saigon Warriors (BO3) - Asia Masters La Jun 15 $181 $0 +0%
LoL: RED Canids vs LOS (BO5) - Esports World Cup South America & LATAM Jun 14 $1 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Valorant: So:sweet vs Dplus (BO3) - VCL Korea: Regular Season BUY Dplus 100¢ $2 33m
Valorant: So:sweet vs Dplus (BO3) - VCL Korea: Regular Season BUY Dplus 100¢ $3 36m
Valorant: So:sweet vs Dplus (BO3) - VCL Korea: Regular Season BUY Dplus 100¢ $59 36m
Valorant: So:sweet vs Dplus (BO3) - VCL Korea: Regular Season BUY Dplus 100¢ $10 36m
Valorant: So:sweet vs Dplus (BO3) - VCL Korea: Regular Season BUY Dplus 100¢ $100 37m
Valorant: So:sweet vs Dplus - Map 1 Winner BUY Dplus 97¢ $194 1h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner BUY T1 Academy 99¢ $10 1h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner BUY T1 Academy 98¢ $44 1h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner BUY T1 Academy 98¢ $8 1h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner BUY T1 Academy 99¢ $29 1h
Honor of Kings: Weibo Gaming vs eStar Pro - Game 3 Winner BUY Weibo Gaming 99¢ $10 2h
Valorant: Gen.G Global Academy vs ONSIDE GAMING (BO3) - VCL Korea: Reg BUY ONSIDE GAMING 100¢ $265 2h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner BUY T1 Academy 99¢ $198 2h
Honor of Kings: Weibo Gaming vs eStar Pro - Game 2 Winner BUY Weibo Gaming 100¢ $100 2h
Valorant: Gen.G Global Academy vs ONSIDE GAMING (BO3) - VCL Korea: Reg BUY ONSIDE GAMING 100¢ $164 2h
Valorant: Gen.G Global Academy vs ONSIDE GAMING (BO3) - VCL Korea: Reg BUY ONSIDE GAMING 100¢ $11 2h
Valorant: Gen.G Global Academy vs ONSIDE GAMING (BO3) - VCL Korea: Reg BUY ONSIDE GAMING 100¢ $26 2h
Honor of Kings: Weibo Gaming vs eStar Pro - Game 2 Winner BUY Weibo Gaming 99¢ $10 2h
Valorant: Gen.G Global Academy vs ONSIDE GAMING (BO3) - VCL Korea: Reg BUY ONSIDE GAMING 100¢ $2 2h
Valorant: Gen.G Global Academy vs ONSIDE GAMING (BO3) - VCL Korea: Reg BUY ONSIDE GAMING 100¢ $7 2h
Valorant: Gen.G Global Academy vs ONSIDE GAMING (BO3) - VCL Korea: Reg BUY ONSIDE GAMING 100¢ $25 2h
Valorant: Gen.G Global Academy vs ONSIDE GAMING (BO3) - VCL Korea: Reg BUY ONSIDE GAMING 100¢ $100 2h
Valorant: Gen.G Global Academy vs ONSIDE GAMING (BO3) - VCL Korea: Reg BUY ONSIDE GAMING 99¢ $5 2h
Valorant: Gen.G Global Academy vs ONSIDE GAMING (BO3) - VCL Korea: Reg BUY ONSIDE GAMING 99¢ $13 2h
Honor of Kings: Weibo Gaming vs eStar Pro - Game 1 Winner BUY Weibo Gaming 99¢ $10 3h
Games Total: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 99¢ $20 3h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - Asia Mast BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 99¢ $50 3h
Valorant: Gen.G Global Academy vs ONSIDE GAMING - Map 1 Winner BUY ONSIDE GAMING 99¢ $198 3h
Valorant: Gen.G Global Academy vs ONSIDE GAMING - Map 1 Winner BUY ONSIDE GAMING 99¢ $198 3h
Valorant: Gen.G Global Academy vs ONSIDE GAMING - Map 1 Winner BUY ONSIDE GAMING 99¢ $99 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,064.42 · official $1,064.42 (match) · 3500 history records