Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T13:42:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
5A 0x5a09…3c83 sports 335 markets active 0h ago coverage 306d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$3,267 (-2%) realized −$3,245 · open −$22
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate56%184W / 147L
Whale WR63%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$631per market
Trades / day3.1pace
Fees−$30est.
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$68now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$18
7 days+$18
14 days+$18
30 days+$447
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 71% −$6,473
other 28% +$3,361
finance 0% −$35
crypto 0% −$27
economics 0% −$51
politics 0% −$75
world 0% +$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-13.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +11.3% +0.7% 40% 40% +11.5%
≤30d 23 -4.3% -13.4% 22% 22% +23.0%
≤90d 127 -23.9% -31.1% 38% 33% -43.4%
all 331 -4.2% -13.3% 56% 47% -10.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.3% 47% -10.9%
10% -21.6% 36% -19.5%
15% -29.2% 25% -27.2%
20% -36.1% 16% -34.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -38% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
16% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 63% (≥$609) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +4% → late -12% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$184 vs −$254 · ×0.72 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.91 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

306d coverage
Net worth$68
Realized−$3,245
Unrealized−$22
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses184 / 147
Whale WR (big bets)63%
Est. fees paid−$30
Open positions4
Markets (closed)331 / 335
History coverage306d
Avg bet$631
Trades / day3.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 331 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Targu Mures: Ilia Simakin vs Marko Topo Ilia Simakin 35¢ 40¢ $34 $39 +$5 (+16%)
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Andrea Guerrieri vs David Goffin Andrea Guerrieri 49¢ 44¢ $25 $22 −$3 (-11%)
Bad Homburg Open: Clara Tauson vs Diana Shnaider Diana Shnaider 62¢ 11¢ $26 $5 −$21 (-83%)
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Hannah Klugman vs Tereza Valentova Hannah Klugman 27¢ 14¢ $5 $2 −$2 (-50%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 12 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Targu Mures: Cezar Cretu vs Akira Santillan Jun 22 $30 +$9 +30%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 22 $5 $0 -7%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Anton Matusevich vs Rei Sakamoto Jun 22 $22 +$11 +49%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 22 $1 $0 -10%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 22 $20 −$1 -5%
Roland Garros WTA: Madison Keys vs Diana Shnaider Jun 01 $10 −$3 -32%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-05-31? May 31 $3 −$1 -46%
Casper Ruud vs. Joao Fonseca: Total Sets O/U 3.5 May 31 $3 $0 -2%
Will Czechia win on 2026-05-31? May 31 $3 $0 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET May 31 $5 −$5 -97%
Roland Garros WTA: Mirra Andreeva vs Jil Teichmann May 31 $6 $0 -1%
Jakub Mensik vs. Andrey Rublev: Total Sets O/U 3.5 May 31 $4 $0 -3%
Roland Garros ATP: Casper Ruud vs Tommy Paul May 29 $141 −$39 -28%
Roland Garros ATP: Karen Khachanov vs Jesper de Jong May 29 $25 +$14 +55%
Roland Garros ATP: Joao Fonseca vs Novak Djokovic May 29 $47 −$47 -99%
Kosice: Federico Bondioli vs Kilian Feldbausch May 28 $13 $0 -4%
Roland Garros ATP: Francisco Comesana vs Luciano Darderi May 28 $30 −$1 -3%
Roland Garros ATP: Alejandro Tabilo vs Valentin Vacherot May 28 $25 −$1 -5%
Republic of Ireland vs. Qatar: O/U 1.5 May 28 $25 −$1 -5%
Roland Garros ATP: Raphael Collignon vs Ben Shelton May 28 $10 −$1 -7%
Roland Garros ATP: Joao Fonseca vs Dino Prizmic May 27 $58 −$3 -5%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers May 26 $532 +$363 +68%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 25 $223 +$155 +70%
Rolex Monte Carlo Masters: Carlos Alcaraz vs Valentin Vacherot Apr 11 $10 −$5 -51%
Barcelona Open, Qualification: Pedro Martinez vs Pablo Carreno Busta Apr 11 $35 −$35 -99%
BMW Open, Qualification: Roberto Carballes Baena vs Alex Molcan Apr 11 $15 −$4 -29%
Will AFC Bournemouth win on 2026-04-11? Apr 11 $6 +$4 +62%
BMW Open, Qualification: Alexander Shevchenko vs Diego Dedura-Palomero Apr 11 $88 +$11 +12%
Monza: Raphael Collignon vs Martin Landaluce Apr 11 $49 +$22 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Apr 11 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Apr 11 $5 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Apr 11 $5 +$2 +46%
Wuning: Fajing Sun vs Pavel Kotov Apr 11 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Apr 11 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Apr 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Apr 11 $4 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Apr 11 $3 +$2 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Apr 11 $6 +$4 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Apr 11 $2 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Apr 11 $1 −$1 -96%
Cavaliers vs. Hawks Apr 11 $41 +$13 +31%
Upper Austria Ladies Linz: Donna Vekic vs Karolina Pliskova Apr 10 $4 +$2 +59%
Pistons vs. Hornets Apr 10 $35 −$35 -99%
Monza: Stefano Travaglia vs Mattia Bellucci Apr 10 $40 +$27 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Apr 10 $1 +$1 +109%
Canucks vs. Kings Apr 10 $1 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Apr 10 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Apr 10 $1 +$1 +143%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Apr 10 $1 +$1 +131%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Apr 10 $1 −$1 -95%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Targu Mures: Ilia Simakin vs Marko Topo BUY Ilia Simakin 35¢ $34 9m
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Hannah Klugman vs Tereza Valentova BUY Hannah Klugman 27¢ $5 33m
Targu Mures: Cezar Cretu vs Akira Santillan SELL Cezar Cretu 87¢ $39 34m
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Andrea Guerrieri vs David Goffin BUY Andrea Guerrieri 52¢ $18 49m
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Andrea Guerrieri vs David Goffin BUY Andrea Guerrieri 42¢ $5 1h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $5 1h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Andrea Guerrieri vs David Goffin BUY Andrea Guerrieri 45¢ $2 1h
Targu Mures: Cezar Cretu vs Akira Santillan BUY Cezar Cretu 66¢ $30 1h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Anton Matusevich vs Rei Sakamoto SELL Rei Sakamoto 95¢ $33 1h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $1 3h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Anton Matusevich vs Rei Sakamoto BUY Rei Sakamoto 63¢ $22 3h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 20¢ $19 3h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 3h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $5 3h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 20¢ $20 3h
Bad Homburg Open: Clara Tauson vs Diana Shnaider BUY Diana Shnaider 62¢ $26 4h
Roland Garros WTA: Madison Keys vs Diana Shnaider SELL Madison Keys 38¢ $7 21d
Roland Garros WTA: Madison Keys vs Diana Shnaider BUY Madison Keys 54¢ $10 21d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-05-31? SELL No 42¢ $2 21d
Casper Ruud vs. Joao Fonseca: Total Sets O/U 3.5 SELL Over 3.5 66¢ $3 21d
Will Czechia win on 2026-05-31? SELL Yes 89¢ $3 21d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 21d
Roland Garros WTA: Mirra Andreeva vs Jil Teichmann SELL Mirra Andreeva 90¢ $6 21d
Jakub Mensik vs. Andrey Rublev: Total Sets O/U 3.5 SELL Over 3.5 69¢ $4 21d
Roland Garros WTA: Mirra Andreeva vs Jil Teichmann BUY Mirra Andreeva 90¢ $3 21d
Roland Garros WTA: Mirra Andreeva vs Jil Teichmann BUY Mirra Andreeva 90¢ $3 21d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-05-31? BUY No 76¢ $3 21d
Will Czechia win on 2026-05-31? BUY Yes 96¢ $3 21d
Jakub Mensik vs. Andrey Rublev: Total Sets O/U 3.5 BUY Over 3.5 70¢ $4 21d
Casper Ruud vs. Joao Fonseca: Total Sets O/U 3.5 BUY Over 3.5 66¢ $3 21d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $68.32 · official $68.32 (match) · 1074 history records