Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T05:45:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
5A 0x5a09…6f92 world 122 markets active 19h ago coverage 528d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$33 (+1%) realized +$33 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +34% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +22% what you keep after slip
Net edge+22%after slip
Net WR13%break-even
Win rate48%58W / 63L
Drawdown14%max
Avg bet$29per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$2
14 days+$7
30 days+$26
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 52% +$24
other 18% $0
politics 12% −$1
economics 7% $0
sports 3% +$7
weather 3% −$1
tech 2% $0
crypto 1% $0
culture 1% −$1
finance 1% +$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +13%
net ROI/market (all)+21.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -1.1% -10.6% 29% 14% -9.9%
≤30d 35 +110.6% +90.5% 49% 20% -8.3%
≤90d 44 +88.3% +70.4% 48% 18% -8.5%
all 121 +34.4% +21.6% 48% 13% -8.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +21.6% 13% -8.6%
10% +9.9% 7% -17.4%
15% -0.7% 7% -25.4%
20% -10.4% 4% -32.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 35% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
72% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +34% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +5% → late +63% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.38 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×2.36 per $1 lost it wins $2.36
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

528d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized+$33
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses58 / 63
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)121 / 122
History coverage528d
Avg bet$29
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown14%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 121 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Xi Jinping out by June 30? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-82%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 20 $11 +$2 +14%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 19 $62 −$2 -3%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? Jun 19 $63 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 19 $57 $0 -0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $62 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 17 $9 −$2 -20%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $79 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $117 +$5 +4%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $60 $0 +0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 12 $59 +$1 +2%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 12 $2 $0 +13%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 10 $6 +$1 +13%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 10 $58 $0 +0%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $42 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 09 $156 $0 -0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 08 $1 $0 +31%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 08 $124 +$2 +2%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 08 $55 $0 -0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 07 $109 −$1 -1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 06 $81 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 06 $106 $0 -0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? Jun 05 $13 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 05 $69 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 03 $14 $0 +0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? Jun 03 $56 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 02 $65 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 02 $132 −$3 -2%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 30 $51 +$3 +6%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 28 $41 $0 +1%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 27 $10 $0 -1%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 26 $26 −$2 -9%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 26 $19 +$4 +19%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 24 $39 +$3 +8%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 24 $36 +$14 +39%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 23 $94 +$1 +1%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 22 $41 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? May 20 $24 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 18 $2 $0 +15%
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Apr 26 $231 +$1 +0%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 25 $46 $0 +0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 25 $4 $0 +0%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 24 $7 $0 +0%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 23 $60 $0 +0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 23 $231 $0 +0%
Will ODS win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? Jul 13 $17 $0 +0%
Will Trump be impeached in 2025? Jul 13 $3 $0 +0%
Will Emmanuel Macron be the first leader out in 2025? Jul 13 $17 $0 +1%
Will H win the most seats in the next Norwegian parliamentary election Jul 12 $16 $0 +1%
Will Franco Parisi win the Chilean presidential election? Jul 12 $16 $0 +0%
Will Eduardo del Castillo win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election? Jul 12 $16 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 16¢ $12 18h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 14¢ $11 23h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 74¢ $61 34h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 76¢ $54 37h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 76¢ $8 37h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL No 72¢ $25 43h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL No 72¢ $1 45h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL No 72¢ $36 45h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY No 72¢ $50 2d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY No 72¢ $12 2d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $55 2d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $45 2d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $10 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 95¢ $62 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 95¢ $62 2d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 2d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 3¢ $2 2d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $3 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 5¢ $7 3d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 6¢ $9 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $3 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $2 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $4 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $9 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $70 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $70 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 74¢ $70 7d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 70¢ $66 7d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 64¢ $35 7d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 64¢ $16 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.40 · official $0.00 · 430 history records