Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T09:00:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
5A 0x5a09…3e02 other 136 markets active 2h ago coverage 155d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$3,616 (+2%) realized +$3,615 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR13%break-even
Win rate27%37W / 98L
Whale WR3%big bets
Drawdown6%max
Avg bet$1,253per market
Trades / day2.8pace
Fees−$29est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$271now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$11
14 days−$22
30 days−$52
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 37% +$384
politics 28% −$58
sports 17% +$3,288
culture 10% −$11
world 3% −$3
economics 3% −$8
crypto 1% +$3
finance 0% −$1
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +13%
net ROI/market (all)-1.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 30 +0.9% -8.8% 10% 3% -9.6%
≤90d 71 -1.6% -11.0% 8% 3% -8.6%
all 135 +8.7% -1.6% 27% 13% -7.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -1.6% 13% -7.6%
10% -11.0% 13% -16.5%
15% -19.6% 13% -24.5%
20% -27.5% 10% -31.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 68% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
51% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +9% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 3% (≥$1,594) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +20% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$112 vs −$6 · ×19.37 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×7.47 per $1 lost it wins $7.47
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

155d coverage
Net worth$271
Realized+$3,615
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)27%
Wins / losses37 / 98
Whale WR (big bets)3%
Est. fees paid−$29
Open positions1
Markets (closed)135 / 136
History coverage155d
Avg bet$1,253
Trades / day2.8
Drawdown6%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 135 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $92,500 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $270 $271 +$1 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 29 $366 −$1 -0%
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 29 $804 −$1 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 24 $3,809 −$4 -0%
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 23 $1,305 −$2 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 23 $2,143 −$3 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 22 $395 $0 -0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 22 $356 −$1 -0%
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 22 $813 −$1 -0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 20 $414 −$1 -0%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 18 $945 −$1 -0%
Will Geraldo Alckmin win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 17 $714 −$1 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 17 $2,608 −$3 -0%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 15 $1,943 −$3 -0%
Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary elec Jun 15 $601 −$1 -0%
Will The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping be the top grossing movi Jun 10 $1,532 −$2 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 09 $727 −$1 -0%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 08 $594 −$1 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 08 $2,066 −$3 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 07 $1,407 −$2 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 06 $807 −$1 -0%
Seattle Mariners vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 06 $64 −$64 -100%
Kansas City Royals vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 05 $47 +$61 +129%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 02 $3,573 −$4 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 02 $5,918 −$6 -0%
Will Solana reach $140 in May? Jun 02 $371 +$1 +0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 01 $1,442 −$2 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 01 $2,107 −$2 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in May? Jun 01 $279 +$1 +0%
Will Richard Grenell be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 01 $347 $0 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 31 $2,553 −$4 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? May 28 $367 −$1 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 26 $521 −$1 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 25 $3,064 −$3 -0%
Golden Knights vs. Avalanche May 25 $58 −$58 -100%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers May 25 $67 −$67 -100%
Will Amir Ohana be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 21 $690 −$1 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 21 $548 −$1 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 21 $1,666 −$3 -0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in May? May 20 $820 −$1 -0%
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? May 20 $1,009 −$1 -0%
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 11 $7,224 −$8 -0%
Will Moldova win Eurovision 2026? May 10 $781 −$1 -0%
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 10 $1,030 −$1 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 10 $3,443 −$4 -0%
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 09 $995 −$2 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 08 $2,263 −$2 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 06 $2,095 −$3 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 06 $2,165 −$3 -0%
Will Switzerland win Eurovision 2026? May 05 $917 $0 -0%
Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair? May 04 $1,039 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $366 1h
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $366 2h
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $268 2h
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $268 5h
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $397 5d
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $397 5d
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $507 5d
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $507 6d
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $302 6d
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $302 6d
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $395 6d
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $395 7d
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $356 7d
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $356 7d
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $380 7d
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $381 7d
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $413 8d
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $414 9d
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $321 11d
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $321 11d
Will Geraldo Alckmin win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $713 12d
Will Geraldo Alckmin win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $714 12d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $609 12d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $610 12d
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $642 13d
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $643 14d
Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary elec SELL No 100¢ $601 14d
Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary elec BUY No 100¢ $601 14d
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $684 14d
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $685 14d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $270.79 · official $270.79 (match) · 540 history records