Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T11:12:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5A 0x5a0e…0f19 sports 295 markets active 8h ago coverage 161d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$30 (+1%) realized +$31 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate71%206W / 85L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$7per market
Trades / day6.0pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$5now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$8
7 days+$8
14 days−$24
30 days+$23
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
economics 55% $0
sports 30% +$13
world 9% +$10
other 3% +$1
culture 1% $0
politics 1% $0
crypto 1% $0
tech 0% $0
finance 0% $0
weather 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-10.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 37 +9.7% -0.8% 59% 57% -5.5%
≤30d 150 -1.4% -10.8% 57% 53% -6.2%
≤90d 253 -1.4% -10.8% 68% 38% -6.9%
all 291 -1.2% -10.6% 71% 33% -8.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.6% 33% -8.4%
10% -19.2% 25% -17.2%
15% -27.0% 21% -25.2%
20% -34.1% 17% -32.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
53% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$3 · ×0.44 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.1 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

161d coverage
Net worth$5
Realized+$31
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)71%
Wins / losses206 / 85
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions4
Markets (closed)291 / 295
History coverage161d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day6.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 291 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Juan Daniel Oviedo win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? No 100¢ 100¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+0%)
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? No 100¢ 99¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 1.25% at the end of 2026? No 100¢ 99¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-0%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Yes 53¢ 18¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-65%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 69 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Athletics (-1.5) Jun 17 $1 +$2 +152%
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-3.5) Jun 17 $2 $0 +20%
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 17 $3 $0 +19%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners Jun 17 $1 −$1 -98%
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros Jun 17 $7 +$10 +145%
Spread: Detroit Tigers (-2.5) Jun 17 $1 $0 +10%
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 17 $6 −$4 -77%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 17 $2 −$2 -98%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 17 $1 +$1 +52%
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 17 $26 +$4 +14%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 17 $6 −$6 -98%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals Jun 17 $10 +$2 +20%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 16 $3 +$1 +57%
Spread: Athletics (-4.5) Jun 16 $2 −$2 -98%
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 6.5 Jun 16 $1 +$2 +188%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 10.5 Jun 16 $3 +$1 +29%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 12.5 Jun 15 $7 +$8 +124%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 14 $6 +$3 +62%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 14 $1 $0 +40%
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 14 $1 $0 +36%
Spread: Germany (-4.5) Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 14 $2 −$2 -99%
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 14 $1 $0 +23%
Spread: Spurs (-9.5) Jun 14 $7 −$7 -99%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $3 −$3 -99%
Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-2.5) Jun 13 $4 $0 +11%
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 11.5 Jun 13 $4 −$4 -99%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 13 $6 +$6 +117%
Spread: United States (-2.5) Jun 13 $13 +$28 +216%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 9.5 Jun 13 $1 −$1 -98%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 216.5 Jun 11 $2 +$3 +140%
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Seattle Storm Jun 11 $1 −$1 -99%
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-3.5) Jun 11 $1 +$4 +325%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $23 −$22 -99%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics: O/U 14.5 Jun 11 $1 −$1 -99%
Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 11 $14 −$13 -99%
Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 10 $2 +$1 +38%
Spread: Golden State Valkyries (-7.5) Jun 10 $1 +$1 +90%
Will Darren Helton receive the most votes in the CA-11 primary? Jun 10 $2 $0 +0%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins Jun 10 $4 +$1 +17%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 10 $2 −$2 -98%
Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 6.5 Jun 10 $1 +$1 +79%
Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 7.5 Jun 10 $3 −$3 -98%
Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 09 $1 −$1 -98%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $2 +$1 +65%
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 7.5 Jun 09 $1 −$1 -99%
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) Jun 09 $3 −$3 -99%
Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 4.5 Jun 09 $1 −$1 -99%
Spread: Los Angeles Angels (-1.5) Jun 07 $2 $0 +17%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 07 $10 +$8 +79%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Athletics (-1.5) BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 39¢ $1 7h
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners BUY Baltimore Orioles 48¢ $1 8h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Tampa Bay Rays 35¢ $1 8h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Tampa Bay Rays 35¢ $1 8h
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-3.5) BUY Tampa Bay Rays 83¢ $2 8h
Spread: Detroit Tigers (-2.5) BUY Houston Astros 91¢ $1 8h
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros BUY Houston Astros 31¢ $1 8h
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros BUY Houston Astros 31¢ $1 8h
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals BUY St. Louis Cardinals 88¢ $1 8h
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs BUY Colorado Rockies 83¢ $1 9h
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs BUY Colorado Rockies 84¢ $1 9h
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks BUY Arizona Diamondbacks 41¢ $1 9h
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks BUY Arizona Diamondbacks 51¢ $5 9h
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers BUY Milwaukee Brewers 65¢ $1 9h
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds BUY Cincinnati Reds 88¢ $5 9h
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds BUY Cincinnati Reds 88¢ $5 9h
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds BUY Cincinnati Reds 88¢ $5 9h
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds BUY Cincinnati Reds 88¢ $5 9h
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds BUY Cincinnati Reds 88¢ $5 9h
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals BUY San Diego Padres 19¢ $1 9h
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals BUY San Diego Padres 19¢ $1 9h
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros BUY Houston Astros 49¢ $2 10h
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros BUY Houston Astros 49¢ $2 10h
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds BUY Cincinnati Reds 83¢ $1 10h
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals BUY San Diego Padres 26¢ $1 10h
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals BUY San Diego Padres 26¢ $1 10h
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals BUY Washington Nationals 83¢ $5 11h
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals BUY Washington Nationals 83¢ $5 11h
Spread: Athletics (-4.5) BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 49¢ $1 32h
Spread: Athletics (-4.5) BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 49¢ $1 32h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5.37 · official $5.37 (match) · 1172 history records