Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T19:00:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

5A
0x5a0f…8f06
other · 137 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$227 -0%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$1,457 · open −$4
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fading edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$190
Realized−$1,457
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses89 / 65
Whale WR (big bets)69%
Est. fees paid−$19
Open positions5
Markets (closed)154 / 137
History coverage212d
Avg bet$585
Trades / day1.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit15%
Chart Positions 5 History 154 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,703
7 days−$1,575
14 days−$1,575
30 days−$1,879
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Under 92¢ 92¢ $150 $150 +$0 (+0%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+2%)
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Over 72¢ 70¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-3%)
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-98%)
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-99%)
Will Elon Musk post 540-559 tweets from December 26 to January 2, 2026? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $41 $0 −$41 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 40-59 tweets from December 26 to January 2, 2026? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $41 $0 −$41 (-100%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Yes 59¢ 0¢ $12 $0 −$12 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from December 26 to January 2, 2026? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $41 $0 −$41 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from December 26 to January 2, 2026? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $41 $0 −$41 (-100%)
Will Trump sell 0 Gold Cards in 2025? No 14¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from December 26 to January 2, 2026? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $41 $0 −$41 (-100%)
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Yes 11¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from December 26 to January 2, 2026? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $41 $0 −$41 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026? Yes 19¢ 0¢ $82 $0 −$82 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 20-39 tweets from December 26 to January 2, 2026? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $41 $0 −$41 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Down 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from December 26 to January 2, 2026? Yes 48¢ 0¢ $1,000 $0 −$1,000 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from December 26 to January 2, 2026? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $41 $0 −$41 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from December 26 to January 2, 2026? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $41 $0 −$41 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from January 13 to January 20, 2026? Yes 8¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from December 26 to January 2, 2026? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $41 $0 −$41 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from December 26 to January 2, 2026? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $41 $0 −$41 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from December 26 to January 2, 2026? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $41 $0 −$41 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from December 26 to January 2, 2026? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $41 $0 −$41 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 540-559 tweets from December 26 to January 2, 2026 Jun 14 $41 −$41 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 40-59 tweets from December 26 to January 2, 2026? Jun 14 $41 −$41 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from December 26 to January 2, 2026? Jun 14 $41 −$41 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from December 26 to January 2, 2026 Jun 14 $41 −$41 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from December 26 to January 2, 2026 Jun 14 $41 −$41 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from December 26 to January 2, 2026 Jun 14 $41 −$41 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 20-39 tweets from December 26 to January 2, 2026? Jun 14 $41 −$41 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from December 26 to January 2, 2026 Jun 14 $41 −$41 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from December 26 to January 2, 2026 Jun 14 $41 −$41 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from December 26 to January 2, 2026 Jun 14 $41 −$41 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from December 26 to January 2, 2026 Jun 14 $41 −$41 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from December 26 to January 2, 2026 Jun 14 $41 −$41 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 580+ tweets from December 26 to January 2, 2026? Jun 14 $41 −$41 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from December 26 to January 2, 2026 Jun 14 $41 −$41 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 560-579 tweets from December 26 to January 2, 2026 Jun 14 $41 −$41 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from December 26 to January 2, 2026 Jun 14 $41 −$41 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from December 26 to January 2, 2026 Jun 14 $41 −$41 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from December 26 to January 2, 2026? Jun 14 $41 −$41 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from December 26 to January 2, 2026 Jun 14 $41 −$41 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from December 26 to January 2, 2026 Jun 14 $41 −$41 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from December 26 to January 2, 2026 Jun 14 $41 −$41 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from December 26 to January 2, 2026 Jun 14 $41 −$41 -100%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $631 −$499 -79%
Germany vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $12 +$7 +57%
Germany leading at halftime? Jun 14 $201 −$101 -50%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $127 +$80 +63%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $75 −$75 -100%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $71 +$35 +50%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $304 −$17 -6%
Switzerland leading at halftime? Jun 13 $101 +$50 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 13 $11 −$8 -79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 13 $101 +$3 +3%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $20 +$23 +114%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 13 $101 −$70 -70%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 12 $350 −$345 -98%
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $282 +$69 +24%
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 12 $199 +$82 +41%
Exact Score: Canada 0 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $16 −$16 -98%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $41 −$24 -59%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $351 +$25 +7%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $30 −$30 -99%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $283 +$51 +18%
Mexico leading at halftime? Jun 11 $102 +$91 +90%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $34 −$8 -23%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 22 $251 −$79 -31%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 20 $109 +$3 +3%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 19 $101 +$9 +9%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 19 $754 −$351 -47%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 18 $332 +$22 +7%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 97% +$272
sports 2% −$891
politics 1% +$36
weather 0% +$18
crypto 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Under 92¢ $150 8m
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 9.5 Total Corners SELL Over 12¢ $64 16m
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 9.5 Total Corners SELL Over 21¢ $8 17m
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 9.5 Total Corners SELL Over 21¢ $8 17m
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 9.5 Total Corners SELL Over 21¢ $8 18m
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 9.5 Total Corners SELL Over 21¢ $44 18m
Germany vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $19 56m
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 70¢ $631 1h
Germany leading at halftime? SELL Yes 43¢ $0 1h
Germany leading at halftime? SELL Yes 43¢ $100 1h
Germany leading at halftime? BUY Yes 85¢ $201 3h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 72¢ $20 4h
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 11h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 11h
Germany vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 63¢ $12 11h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 94¢ $152 13h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 58¢ $127 13h
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 66¢ $71 23h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 58¢ $280 23h
Switzerland leading at halftime? SELL Yes 97¢ $151 23h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $304 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET SELL Up 3¢ $2 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Up 8¢ $5 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Up 28¢ $5 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET SELL Up 84¢ $105 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $101 29h
Switzerland leading at halftime? BUY Yes 64¢ $101 29h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 81¢ $75 37h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 100¢ $43 39h
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 7.5 Total Corners SELL Over 8¢ $2 40h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-19.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 45 -58.7% -62.7% 24% 20% -44.6%
≤30d 53 -50.5% -55.2% 32% 19% -35.3%
≤90d 78 -33.7% -40.0% 47% 22% -20.8%
all 154 -10.8% -19.3% 58% 25% -11.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover1.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.3% 25% -11.4%
10% -27.0% 14% -19.9%
15% -34.0% 9% -27.6%
20% -40.5% 7% -34.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $190.09 · official $190.09 (match) · 410 history records