trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 7 | +0.1% | -9.5% | 14% | 0% | -9.5% |
| ≤30d | 14 | -0.5% | -10.0% | 21% | 0% | -10.4% |
| ≤90d | 17 | -0.7% | -10.1% | 18% | 0% | -10.4% |
| all | 27 | -4.1% | -13.2% | 41% | 4% | -14.9% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -13.2% | 4% | -14.9% |
| 10% | -21.5% | 4% | -23.1% |
| 15% | -29.1% | 4% | -30.5% |
| 20% | -36.1% | 4% | -37.3% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? | No | 97¢ | 97¢ | $38 | $38 | +$0 (+0%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Israel closes its airspace by July 31? | Jun 20 | $37 | $0 | +0% |
| Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? | Jun 20 | $37 | $0 | +1% |
| China x Philippines military clash before 2027? | Jun 20 | $31 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | Jun 19 | $37 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? | Jun 18 | $37 | $0 | -0% |
| China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? | Jun 18 | $34 | $0 | +0% |
| Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? | Jun 17 | $34 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? | May 27 | $33 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab | May 26 | $33 | $0 | +0% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? | May 26 | $79 | −$5 | -7% |
| US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? | May 25 | $39 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma | May 24 | $40 | $0 | -0% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | May 24 | $39 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Alberta join the US? | May 23 | $71 | $0 | -0% |
| Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? | May 22 | $35 | −$1 | -4% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? | May 21 | $35 | $0 | -0% |
| Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? | May 21 | $80 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Bitcoin reach $150K in June? | Dec 10 | $2 | $0 | +1% |
| Will the Indiana Pacers win the 2025 NBA Finals? | Jun 26 | $2 | $0 | +1% |
| US military action against Iran by Friday? | Jun 22 | $1 | $0 | +4% |
| Will Călin Georgescu win the Romanian presidential election? | May 20 | $1 | $0 | +1% |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after May 2025 meeting? | May 09 | $2 | $0 | +2% |
| Will the highest temperature in London be 53°F or below on March 23? | Mar 24 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Will the Memphis Grizzlies win the Western Conference? | Mar 22 | $96 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Trump say "Pocahontas" during Digital Asset Summit? | Mar 21 | $48 | +$1 | +2% |
| Will "The Man Who Could Not Remain Silent" win Best Action Short Film | Mar 20 | $25 | +$22 | +89% |
| Will "I'm Not a Robot" win Best Action Short Film at the 2025 Oscars? | Mar 20 | $74 | −$74 | -100% |