Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T02:23:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0

score

5A 0x5a0f…ff68 other 39 markets active 1h ago coverage 6d

TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL −$5 (-1%) realized −$9 · open +$4

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -24% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -36% what you keep after slip

Net edge-36%after slip

Net WR43%break-even

Win rate57%13W / 10L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$19per market

Trades / day10.2pace

Fees−$1est.

Kalshi-fit36%portable

Net worth$260now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +43%

net ROI/market (all)-30.9%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	23	-23.6%	-30.9%	57%	43%	-6.4%
≤30d	23	-23.6%	-30.9%	57%	43%	-6.4%
≤90d	23	-23.6%	-30.9%	57%	43%	-6.4%
all	23	-23.6%	-30.9%	57%	43%	-6.4%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover10.2 tr/day

realistic slip~9%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-30.9%	43%	-6.4%
10%	-37.5%	39%	-15.3%
15%	-43.5%	30%	-23.5%
20%	-49.1%	13%	-31.0%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 23% · top 2 41% broad-based profit

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading

Fragile wins

23% wins margin < slip solid win margins

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -24% · $-wt +4% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early -33% → late -15% mixed

Add-ons / DCA

1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$7 vs −$8 · ×0.93 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×1.2 profit barely above losses

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage

Net worth$260

Realized−$9

Unrealized+$4

Win rate (resolved)57%

Wins / losses13 / 10

Est. fees paid−$1

Open positions16

Markets (closed)23 / 39

History coverage6d

Avg bet$19

Trades / day10.2

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit36%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 16 History 23 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23?	Yes	65¢	70¢	$90	$98	+$8 (+9%)
Will Morocco win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	32¢	32¢	$50	$50	+$0 (+0%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24?	Yes	83¢	82¢	$20	$20	−$0 (-1%)
Will Brazil win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	34¢	35¢	$10	$10	+$0 (+3%)
Will Bruno Fernandes stay at Manchester United?	Yes	93¢	94¢	$10	$10	+$0 (+2%)
Will Sandro Tonali join Real Madrid?	No	91¢	90¢	$10	$10	−$0 (-1%)
Will Ecuador advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	75¢	74¢	$10	$10	−$0 (-2%)
Will Paraguay reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	77¢	74¢	$10	$10	−$0 (-3%)
Will Canada reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	46¢	42¢	$10	$9	−$1 (-8%)
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	21¢	36¢	$5	$8	+$3 (+71%)
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	25¢	30¢	$5	$6	+$1 (+22%)
Will Belgium reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	43¢	40¢	$5	$5	−$0 (-6%)
Will Germany reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	20¢	18¢	$5	$5	−$0 (-7%)
Will Messi and Ronaldo Shake Hands During World Cup?	No	70¢	61¢	$5	$4	−$1 (-13%)
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	21¢	8¢	$10	$4	−$6 (-64%)
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	Yes	0¢	0¢	$1	$1	−$0 (-38%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23?	Jun 24	$61	+$22	+36%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22?	Jun 23	$101	+$6	+6%
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5	Jun 23	$45	+$10	+21%
Jordan vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score	Jun 23	$20	+$7	+36%
Will France win on 2026-06-22?	Jun 23	$50	+$3	+6%
France vs. Iraq: Both Teams to Score	Jun 23	$10	$0	+3%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	Jun 22	$20	+$9	+46%
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw?	Jun 22	$1	−$1	-98%
Exact Score: Any Other Score?	Jun 22	$1	−$1	-100%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21?	Jun 22	$26	+$16	+63%
Dani Olmo: 1+ goals	Jun 21	$2	−$2	-98%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21?	Jun 21	$30	−$30	-99%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5	Jun 21	$5	+$2	+31%
Tunisia vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score	Jun 21	$5	+$2	+46%
Will Tunisia vs. Japan end in a draw?	Jun 21	$5	−$5	-92%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 3.5	Jun 21	$5	−$5	-99%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 3.5	Jun 20	$10	+$6	+60%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 5.5	Jun 20	$10	+$3	+30%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 3.5	Jun 20	$10	+$7	+67%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 6.5	Jun 20	$2	−$2	-98%
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30	Jun 18	$2	−$2	-100%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20?	Jun 18	$20	−$20	-98%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18?	Jun 18	$10	−$10	-99%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL Yes	36¢	$9	33m
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL Yes	7¢	$3	33m
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23?	BUY Yes	64¢	$20	34m
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23?	SELL Yes	90¢	$42	1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23?	SELL Yes	87¢	$40	1h
Will Bruno Fernandes stay at Manchester United?	BUY Yes	93¢	$10	11h
Will Sandro Tonali join Real Madrid?	BUY No	91¢	$10	11h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23?	BUY Yes	66¢	$10	11h
Will Paraguay reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY No	77¢	$10	11h
Will Canada reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY No	46¢	$10	11h
Will Belgium reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY No	43¢	$5	11h
Will Germany reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY No	20¢	$5	11h
Will Messi and Ronaldo Shake Hands During World Cup?	BUY No	70¢	$5	16h
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL Yes	32¢	$6	17h
Will Morocco win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	33¢	$41	19h
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5	BUY Over	82¢	$45	22h
Jordan vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score	BUY Yes	73¢	$20	22h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22?	SELL Yes	33¢	$26	22h
France vs. Iraq: Both Teams to Score	BUY No	97¢	$10	25h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24?	BUY Yes	83¢	$20	25h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23?	BUY Yes	64¢	$10	25h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23?	BUY Yes	64¢	$10	25h
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw?	BUY Yes	28¢	$1	33h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	BUY Yes	68¢	$10	33h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	BUY Yes	68¢	$10	38h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	60¢	$6	2d
Exact Score: Any Other Score?	BUY Yes	35¢	$1	2d
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL Yes	25¢	$10	2d
Dani Olmo: 1+ goals	BUY Yes	37¢	$2	2d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	68¢	$10	2d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $259.85 · official $259.85 (match) · 73 history records