Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:26:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5A 0x5a13…588f other 59 markets active 2h ago coverage 270d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$550 (-16%) realized −$549 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -4% what you keep after slip
Net edge-4%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate32%18W / 39L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$57per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit42%portable
Net worth$104now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$91
7 days−$367
14 days−$369
30 days−$369
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 80% −$240
politics 13% −$217
sports 3% −$76
crypto 3% −$28
world 1% −$29
economics 1% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-4.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 31 -2.8% -12.0% 39% 39% -22.2%
≤30d 32 -3.3% -12.5% 38% 38% -22.2%
≤90d 32 -3.3% -12.5% 38% 38% -22.2%
all 57 +6.0% -4.1% 32% 30% -26.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.1% 30% -26.3%
10% -13.2% 30% -33.3%
15% -21.6% 23% -39.8%
20% -29.3% 18% -45.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 51% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt -18% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +29% → late -16% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$43 vs −$36 · ×1.19 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.56 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

270d coverage
Net worth$104
Realized−$549
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses18 / 39
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions2
Markets (closed)57 / 59
History coverage270d
Avg bet$57
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit42%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 57 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Yes 76¢ 76¢ $75 $75 −$0 (-1%)
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Yes 30¢ 30¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 13 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 1 Jordan? Jun 17 $101 +$27 +26%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $70 −$51 -73%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $118 −$44 -38%
Jordan to score first vs. Austria? Jun 17 $26 −$25 -98%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria? Jun 17 $51 +$127 +249%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $100 +$29 +29%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Algeria? Jun 17 $39 +$14 +35%
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 0 Algeria? Jun 17 $16 +$4 +24%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $40 +$19 +48%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $190 −$190 -100%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $99 +$92 +93%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $61 −$50 -82%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $508 +$265 +52%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $145 −$12 -8%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $328 −$203 -62%
Exact Score: United States 3 - 0 Paraguay? Jun 13 $38 −$37 -98%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $103 −$81 -79%
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 13 $18 +$7 +36%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 13 $69 −$5 -7%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $13 −$2 -12%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $212 −$193 -91%
Exact Score: United States 2 - 0 Paraguay? Jun 12 $5 −$1 -21%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $46 −$33 -73%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $15 +$26 +168%
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $15 −$15 -98%
Exact Score: Korea Republic 3 - 1 Czechia? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Korea Republic 1 - 0 Czechia? Jun 12 $26 −$25 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $103 +$44 +43%
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 0 South Africa? Jun 11 $5 +$24 +474%
Exact Score: Mexico 3 - 0 South Africa? Jun 11 $15 −$15 -97%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 09 $10 −$2 -19%
Will Israel strike Gaza on November 29? Nov 29 $28 −$28 -100%
Will the Los Angeles Rams win Super Bowl 2026? Nov 29 $25 $0 +0%
Israel strike on the West Bank by December 31? Nov 29 $3 $0 -0%
Trump announces new drug boat strike by November 30? Nov 25 $9 +$19 +207%
Will anyone vote "No" to releasing the Epstein files? Nov 18 $6 +$4 +59%
Will Trump be impeached in 2025? Nov 18 $17 −$11 -63%
Trump announces new drug boat strike by November 20? Nov 16 $2 $0 +0%
Will Trump be impeached by end of 2026? Nov 16 $19 −$2 -11%
Will Israel allow independent journalists into Gaza by December 31? Nov 12 $1 $0 -8%
Will the Government shutdown end by November 30? Nov 12 $15 −$15 -98%
Will the Government shutdown end by November 15? Nov 12 $14 −$13 -94%
Will Trump say "Through the roof" during Hungary PM events on November Nov 06 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Trump say "President Xi" during C5+1 Summit on November 6? Nov 06 $2 −$1 -29%
Will Trump say "Middle East" during C5+1 Summit on November 6? Nov 06 $2 −$1 -39%
Will Trump say "Rare Earth" or "Critical Mineral" during C5+1 Summit o Nov 06 $5 −$1 -20%
Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during the America Business Forum Nov 05 $28 +$23 +84%
Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during Hungary PM events on Novem Nov 03 $10 −$10 -100%
US x Venezuela military engagement by December 31? Nov 03 $10 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $76 1h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 30¢ $31 1h
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 1 Jordan? SELL Yes 73¢ $127 3h
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 1 Jordan? BUY Yes 57¢ $91 3h
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 1 Jordan? BUY Yes 52¢ $10 3h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? SELL Yes 11¢ $9 3h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 50¢ $45 3h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 38¢ $35 3h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 81¢ $77 3h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? SELL Yes 15¢ $9 3h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 39¢ $25 4h
Jordan to score first vs. Austria? BUY Yes 25¢ $26 5h
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria? SELL Yes 100¢ $178 6h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $129 6h
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria? BUY Yes 28¢ $51 6h
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Algeria? SELL Yes 38¢ $52 6h
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Algeria? BUY Yes 27¢ $39 7h
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 0 Algeria? SELL Yes 26¢ $20 7h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 69¢ $38 7h
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 0 Algeria? BUY Yes 20¢ $16 7h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 28¢ $16 7h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 83¢ $59 7h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 28¢ $17 19h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 72¢ $40 19h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 69¢ $40 19h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $40 19h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 92¢ $190 2d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $190 2d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $48 2d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $51 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $104.01 · official $104.01 (match) · 146 history records