Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T05:39:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5A 0x5a16…f8d2 crypto 25 markets active 0h ago coverage 154d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$49 (-25%) realized −$49 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate48%12W / 13L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$7
7 days+$11
14 days+$11
30 days−$8
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 54% −$14
other 36% −$15
sports 6% −$6
world 2% +$1
politics 2% −$3
finance 1% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-22.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +6.1% -4.0% 75% 62% +1.7%
≤30d 9 -5.7% -14.6% 67% 56% -16.5%
≤90d 9 -5.7% -14.6% 67% 56% -16.5%
all 25 -14.5% -22.7% 48% 44% -28.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -22.7% 44% -28.1%
10% -30.1% 36% -35.0%
15% -36.8% 28% -41.2%
20% -43.0% 28% -47.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 45% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -15% · $-wt -20% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +7% → late -35% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$7 · ×0.58 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.53 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

154d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$49
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses12 / 13
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)25 / 25
History coverage154d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 25 Trades
no open positions (10 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 23 $15 +$2 +11%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $34 +$6 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 19 $7 +$4 +55%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 19 $11 −$5 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 19 $4 +$4 +85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 17 $5 +$1 +22%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $11 +$1 +8%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $19 −$19 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Feb 13 $5 −$5 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Feb 13 $7 −$7 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Feb 13 $5 −$5 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Feb 13 $20 −$20 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Feb 13 $10 −$10 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Feb 13 $5 −$5 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Feb 13 $4 +$4 +98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Feb 13 $3 +$6 +190%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Feb 13 $10 +$14 +144%
Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? Feb 13 $3 +$1 +25%
Will Zelenskyy attend the World Economic Forum? Jan 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Trump shake hands with Volodymyr Zelenskyy at the World Economic Jan 22 $3 −$3 -100%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on January 22? Jan 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $85,000 in January? Jan 22 $2 +$1 +68%
Will Ethereum dip to $2,800 in January? Jan 22 $2 +$2 +92%
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? Jan 22 $3 −$1 -30%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET SELL Down 20¢ $8 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Down 17¢ $7 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET SELL Up 63¢ $8 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $7 4m
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 39¢ $40 1h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 32¢ $34 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Down 63¢ $7 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $4 4d
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 4d
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? SELL Yes 11¢ $5 4d
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 19¢ $10 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET SELL Up 49¢ $6 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $5 5d
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 5d
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 8¢ $0 5d
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 5d
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 5d
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 12¢ $12 6d
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 7¢ $5 6d
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 13¢ $5 6d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 20¢ $19 23d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Down 24¢ $5 129d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $7 129d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 24¢ $5 129d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Down 23¢ $20 129d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 24¢ $10 129d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Up 28¢ $5 129d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $8 129d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $4 129d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $3 129d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 49 history records