Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T20:33:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

5A
0x5a1a…2983
weather · 1136 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
+$94 +2%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$90 · open +$4
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP weather specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$348
Realized+$90
Unrealized+$4
Win rate (resolved)87%
Wins / losses916 / 133
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions87
Markets (closed)1049 / 1136
History coverage33d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day59.0
Drawdown61%
Kalshi-fit99%
Chart Positions 87 History 1049 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days−$1
14 days+$13
30 days+$36
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 78-79°F on June 12? No 77¢ 100¢ $7 $9 +$2 (+29%)
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 18°C on June 12? No 77¢ 100¢ $7 $9 +$2 (+29%)
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 13? No 60¢ 68¢ $7 $8 +$1 (+13%)
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 21°C on June 13? No 75¢ 84¢ $7 $8 +$1 (+12%)
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 26°C on June 13? No 84¢ 89¢ $7 $7 +$0 (+6%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 14? No 86¢ 92¢ $7 $7 +$0 (+6%)
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 22°C on June 13? No 91¢ 94¢ $7 $7 +$0 (+4%)
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 78-79°F on June 13? No 85¢ 88¢ $7 $7 +$0 (+4%)
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 30°C on June 13? No 90¢ 93¢ $7 $7 +$0 (+3%)
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 29°C on June 13? No 91¢ 94¢ $7 $7 +$0 (+3%)
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 82-83°F on June 13? No 83¢ 86¢ $7 $7 +$0 (+3%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 13? No 94¢ 96¢ $7 $7 +$0 (+3%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 14? No 76¢ 78¢ $7 $7 +$0 (+3%)
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 25°C on June 13? No 93¢ 95¢ $7 $7 +$0 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 14? No 96¢ 97¢ $7 $7 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 23°C on June 13? No 98¢ 98¢ $7 $7 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on June 14? No 99¢ 99¢ $7 $7 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 34°C on June 13? No 99¢ 99¢ $7 $7 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 84-85°F on June 13? No 96¢ 96¢ $7 $7 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C or higher on June 13? No 99¢ 99¢ $7 $7 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 13? No 86¢ 86¢ $7 $7 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 13? No 89¢ 88¢ $7 $7 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 26°C on June 14? No 86¢ 84¢ $7 $7 −$0 (-2%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 14? No 77¢ 72¢ $7 $7 −$0 (-5%)
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 13? No 79¢ 74¢ $7 $7 −$0 (-7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C or higher on June 12? Jun 12 $1 $0 +33%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 12? Jun 12 $7 −$7 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 $0 +22%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 12? Jun 12 $4 +$1 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 29°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 $0 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 34°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 $0 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 30°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 $0 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 $0 +18%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on June 12? Jun 12 $7 +$2 +30%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 35°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 12? Jun 12 $7 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 $0 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 $0 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 84-85°F on June 11? Jun 12 $4 +$1 +25%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 80-81°F on June 11? Jun 12 $7 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 96-97°F on Ju Jun 12 $3 +$1 +17%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on Ju Jun 12 $7 +$1 +20%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 87°F or below on June Jun 12 $7 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 21°C on June 11? Jun 11 $34 −$8 -23%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 11? Jun 11 $7 +$2 +34%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on June 10? Jun 11 $7 +$2 +34%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 82-83°F on June 10? Jun 11 $4 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 26°C on June 10? Jun 11 $7 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 28°C on June 10? Jun 11 $7 +$1 +17%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 27°C on June 10? Jun 11 $7 $0 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 24°C on June 10? Jun 11 $3 +$4 +130%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 31°C or higher on June 11? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -97%
Will turnout in the 2026 KY-04 Republican Primary be between 100,000 a Jun 11 $1 $0 +3%
Valorant: FUT Esports vs NRG (BO3) - VCT Masters London Group Stage Jun 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on June 10? Jun 10 $2 +$1 +27%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on June 10? Jun 10 $7 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 28°C on June 10? Jun 10 $7 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 10? Jun 10 $7 +$1 +18%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 24°C or below on June 9? Jun 10 $7 −$7 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 84-85°F on June 9? Jun 10 $3 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 80-81°F on June 9? Jun 10 $7 +$1 +20%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on Ju Jun 10 $7 +$3 +48%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on Ju Jun 10 $7 +$1 +17%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on Ju Jun 10 $3 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 25°C on June 9? Jun 10 $3 +$1 +35%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 24°C on June 9? Jun 10 $3 +$3 +91%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 29°C on June 10? Jun 09 $7 −$7 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 9? Jun 09 $7 −$7 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on June 9? Jun 09 $7 $0 +5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
weather 100% +$93
other 0% +$1
sports 0% $0
politics 0% $0
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C or higher on June 13? BUY No 96¢ $3 25m
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 27°C on June 13? BUY No 67¢ $3 27m
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 27°C on June 13? BUY No 64¢ $3 31m
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 13? BUY No 63¢ $3 32m
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 13? BUY No 78¢ $3 32m
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 31°C on June 13? BUY No 99¢ $2 41m
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C or below on June 13? BUY No 31¢ $3 42m
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C or below on June 13? BUY No 30¢ $3 45m
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 14? BUY No 70¢ $3 1h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 25°C on June 14? BUY No 71¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 23°C on June 14? BUY No 93¢ $3 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 14? BUY No 67¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 14? BUY No 67¢ $3 1h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 30°C on June 13? BUY No 85¢ $3 1h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 27°C on June 13? BUY No 64¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 22°C on June 14? BUY No 65¢ $3 1h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 22°C on June 14? BUY No 65¢ $3 1h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 27°C on June 14? BUY No 93¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 30°C on June 13? BUY No 83¢ $3 1h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 13? BUY No 66¢ $3 1h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 13? BUY No 66¢ $3 1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 14? BUY No 95¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 23°C on June 14? BUY No 94¢ $3 1h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 30°C on June 13? BUY No 97¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 28°C on June 13? BUY No 67¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 13? BUY No 68¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 28°C on June 14? BUY No 99¢ $3 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 14? BUY No 86¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 14? BUY No 90¢ $2 2h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 14? BUY No 67¢ $1 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-5.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 125 +2.1% -7.6% 86% 44% -9.7%
≤30d 924 +2.2% -7.5% 86% 43% -8.6%
≤90d 1049 +4.2% -5.7% 87% 44% -7.4%
all 1049 +4.2% -5.7% 87% 44% -7.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover59.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -5.7% 44% -7.4%
10% ← realistic here -14.8% 26% -16.2%
15% -23.0% 12% -24.3%
20% -30.5% 7% -31.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $347.72 · official $347.70 (match) · 3500 history records