Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T08:05:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5A 0x5a1a…7525 other 43 markets active 2h ago coverage 458d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$4 (-1%) realized −$4 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate36%15W / 27L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$16per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$44now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 59% −$1
other 29% $0
crypto 6% $0
politics 2% −$3
culture 2% $0
economics 1% $0
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-16.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -0.2% -9.7% 14% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 11 -0.1% -9.6% 27% 0% -9.5%
≤90d 14 -0.1% -9.7% 21% 0% -9.6%
all 42 -7.3% -16.1% 36% 0% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.1% 0% -10.0%
10% -24.1% 0% -18.6%
15% -31.5% 0% -26.5%
20% -38.2% 0% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 42% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -14% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.35 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.29 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

458d coverage
Net worth$44
Realized−$4
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses15 / 27
Open positions1
Markets (closed)42 / 43
History coverage458d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 42 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? No 91¢ 91¢ $44 $44 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? Jun 23 $45 $0 +0%
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? Jun 23 $45 $0 +0%
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? Jun 22 $4 $0 -0%
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 22 $7 $0 -2%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? Jun 21 $40 $0 +1%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 19 $16 $0 +0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 18 $7 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 26 $66 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 26 $40 $0 +0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 26 $26 $0 -1%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? May 25 $44 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 23 $29 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 21 $85 −$1 -1%
Iran leadership change by June 30? May 18 $41 $0 +0%
Ethereum all time high by June 30? Dec 14 $7 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2025 World Series? Dec 14 $6 $0 -4%
Will the Liberal Party win the Canadian election by 9-12%? Jun 24 $2 −$2 -100%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after June 2025 meeting? Jun 19 $2 $0 +4%
Will Han Duck-soo be elected the next president of South Korea? Jun 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Estonia win Eurovision 2025? May 19 $2 $0 +3%
Will Slovenia win Eurovision 2025? May 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will Pedri win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? May 15 $6 $0 +1%
Will the Winnipeg Jets win the 2025 Stanley Cup? May 13 $10 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $125k in May? May 12 $6 $0 -0%
Will Frank McCourt buy TikTok? May 09 $7 $0 +0%
Will Israel qualify for the Eurovision 2025 grand final? May 08 $3 $0 +0%
Will Pierbattista Pizzaballa be the next pope? May 07 $3 $0 -6%
Will Péter Erdő be the next pope? May 06 $5 $0 -1%
Will Ethereum dip to $1200 in April? May 05 $10 $0 +4%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Apr 30 $4 $0 +2%
Will Luis Antonio Tagle be the next pope? Apr 29 $4 $0 -0%
Will the Conservative Party win the most seats in Newfoundland and Lab Apr 27 $5 $0 -0%
Will Mark Carney lose his seat? Apr 26 $5 $0 -0%
Will the Liberal Party win the most seats in the next Canadian electio Apr 26 $5 $0 -4%
No Trump announcement of next Fed Chair by June 30? Apr 25 $5 $0 +0%
Will another coalition form the next German Government? Apr 24 $7 $0 +0%
Will the next Government of Canada be a Conservative majority? Apr 24 $7 $0 +3%
Will Ethereum reach $2200 in April? Apr 23 $7 $0 -6%
Will 'A Minecraft Movie' have the best domestic opening weekend in 202 Apr 19 $7 $0 +0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the Western Conference? Apr 04 $13 $0 -0%
Will Netherlands win Eurovision 2025? Mar 25 $12 $0 +0%
Will the LA Clippers win the Western Conference? Mar 24 $13 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 91¢ $44 1h
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? SELL No 93¢ $16 18h
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? SELL No 93¢ $29 18h
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? BUY No 93¢ $45 18h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL No 86¢ $45 22h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY No 86¢ $45 24h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? SELL Yes $4 33h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? BUY Yes $0 35h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? BUY Yes $2 35h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? BUY Yes $2 35h
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No $0 41h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $23 3d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $17 3d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $40 3d
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No $7 4d
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No $7 4d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $16 4d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $10 4d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $6 4d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes $7 6d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes $7 6d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $5 28d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $39 28d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $44 28d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 81¢ $37 28d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 81¢ $3 28d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? BUY No 81¢ $40 28d
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab SELL No 98¢ $24 28d
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab BUY No 98¢ $24 29d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $44 29d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $44.44 · official $44.44 (match) · 121 history records