Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T19:08:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5A 0x5a1b…9522 crypto 445 markets active 1h ago coverage 18d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 18d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (166 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$21,201 (+14%) realized +$21,201 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR16%break-even
Win rate78%400W / 114L
Whale WR87%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$346per market
Trades / day166.3pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$237now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 18d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$1,837
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (166 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +16%
net ROI/market (all)-14.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 186 -27.7% -34.6% 58% 15% -25.8%
≤30d 514 -5.6% -14.6% 78% 16% -14.1%
≤90d 514 -5.6% -14.6% 78% 16% -14.1%
all 514 -5.6% -14.6% 78% 16% -14.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover166.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -14.6% 16% -14.1%
10% ← realistic here -22.8% 10% -22.4%
15% -30.2% 7% -29.9%
20% -37.1% 5% -36.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
79% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 87% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +4% → late -15% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
6.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$28 vs −$178 · ×0.16 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.55 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

18d coverage
Net worth$237
Realized+$21,201
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)78%
Wins / losses400 / 114
Whale WR (big bets)87%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)514 / 445
History coverage18d ⚠
Avg bet$346
Trades / day166.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 514 Trades
no open positions (103 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 20 $96 +$40 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 20 $99 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 20 $0 $0 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 20 $0 $0 +127%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 20 $105 −$105 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 20 $117 −$117 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 20 $239 −$239 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 20 $178 −$178 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 20 $124 −$124 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 20 $79 −$79 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 20 $15 −$30 -200%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 20 $39 −$39 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 20 $542 −$542 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 20 $145 −$145 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 20 $62 −$62 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 20 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 20 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 20 $42 −$42 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 20 $75 −$75 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 20 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 20 $40 −$40 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 20 $870 −$870 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 20 $57 −$57 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 20 $87 −$87 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 20 $39 −$39 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 20 $480 −$961 -200%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 20 $90 −$90 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 20 $39 −$39 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 20 $17 −$17 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 20 $33 −$33 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 20 $58 −$58 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 20 $206 −$206 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 20 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 20 $28 −$28 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 20 $46 −$46 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 20 $29 −$29 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 20 $93 −$93 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 20 $33 −$33 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 20 $239 −$239 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 20 $241 −$481 -200%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 20 $344 −$344 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 20 $589 −$589 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 20 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 20 $260 −$260 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 20 $13 −$26 -200%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 20 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 20 $99 −$99 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 20 $40 −$40 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 20 $11 −$11 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $95 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $66 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $32 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $97 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $95 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $97 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $87 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $96 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $24 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $24 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $24 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $24 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $92 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $24 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $58 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $94 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $23 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $48 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $16 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $61 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $86 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Down 83¢ $66 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Down 84¢ $18 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $96 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $95 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $96 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $236.57 · official $235.69 (match) · 3500 history records